This Looks Familiar

Good Thursday afternoon. I continue to watch two more storm systems and the first arrives on the scene late Friday into early Saturday. This one will have the axis of snow farther south than this last storm, but how far south does that get. The models are trying to get the temps right and that’s messing with their precipitation type forecasts from run to run.

Just to throw a little misery at the snow staved folks of central and eastern Kentucky… does this snowfall map look familiar?

GFS Snowfall

That’s the GFS snowfall forecast from Friday night into early Saturday and shows 4″ snows teasing us once again. Of course, it is one run of one model and will look different in a few hours. But, I thought it was funny to see the dome in full force on that map. :)

I’m seeing a lot of twitter comments floating around that are just way too black or white for my taste. Anyone saying an inch or two of snow or no snow in a definitive manner for any particular place is asking for trouble. Trust me… I know. This has overachiever written all over it for someone. I guess that means congrats Cincy! ;)

The models all continue to advertise overrunning snows around here New Year’s Eve and Day. I’m sure that would work for you guys if it pans out.

I will have another update this evening. Take care.


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102 Responses to This Looks Familiar

  1. james says:

    Thanks Chris! Hope it over achievs in central Ky.

  2. Andy Rose says:

    woohoo more cold rain

  3. Dara says:

    UGH…..not liking the looks of that!

  4. Lincoln says:

    You can tell, not only are Chris’s followers frustrated. But so is Chris. Lol. We will get some snow here sooner or later. Even if its 10 years from now!

  5. Wes says:

    What is the middle of January looking like?

  6. KC says:

    Thanks, Chris. Looking forward to the next 2 systems.

  7. Amandanlouisville says:

    hey Chris check out the new gfs 12z it has the new snow totals much further south Louisville 3 -4 inches now

  8. Angelica says:

    Well it seems that that storm will keep my sister in law from visiting. Maryland looks like it’s going to get hit hard. Oh well. LOL.

  9. prelude says:

    Good grief!?! We just went through this not two days ago and here we are again, of course. Im not even going to interupt it I will say this most of us will get precip tomorrow night what kind I have no clue. Could be rain could be sleet could be snow could be freezing rain it will be cloudy and cold and wet. That is more forecast.

  10. Chris Mercer says:

    Chris actually used the word “dome.” Bubba G must be proud. Where is Tommy to rub in it when you need him?

  11. lisaj says:

    I will never give up hope……one of these days we will get to kick the ball BEFORE Lucy pulls it away!!!

    I’m still perfecting my snow dance.

  12. Damaged Goods says:

    WAVE 3 (Louisville) is saying, as of now, it looks like 1 – 2 inches for Louisville with the Friday night/Saturday storm. It all depends on phasing, how much moisture is available, temps., etc. etc. That was as of 10:03 this morning. After this last storm being such a bust for us (not EVEN a dusting where I live)…. ugh…. that’s about all I can say.

  13. Russ says:

    Enough of this. Let’s get to spring and talk severe wx tracking. This winter was dead on arrival, much like last year.

    • prelude says:

      Problem with that is it’s still December gotta get through winter before you get to spring.

    • Chris Mercer says:

      I wouldn’t go to that extreme yet. I’ve had more snow in December than I did last year. I also had some snow flying on October which is fairly rare. My only big snow last year (4 inches or more) was on March 4-5 and it melted the next day in the wake of 65 degree temps. I think we need to at least wait until Mid-February before declaring winter over.

  14. prelude says:

    This just in and I know most of you will be shocked. Accuweather says the cities of Louisville, Cincinnati, Huntington WV, Pittsburgh, Washington Dc, Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City are projected to recieve a 1-3 inch snowfall. The track of accumulating snow will go from Evansville through Louisville and right up the river.

  15. Sandman says:

    Wow, the GFS snowfall forecast almost outlines the state with the bigger snows?

  16. WXman says:

    12Z Euro takes the entire state above freezing Friday night into Saturday morning. Little to no accumulation. GFS and NAM agree. Best hope is the New Year storm..

    • Chris Bailey says:

      No it doesn’t

      • Andrew says:

        HAHA! I love when Chris posts!!

        • Andy Rose says:

          It needs to happen more IMO although i know he is a very busy person

        • WXman says:

          That’s not really Chris. Chris knows how to read models and use punctuation. That is a troll using Chris’ name obviously.

          • Chris Bailey says:

            Actually it is me. The 540 line on the European is south of Nashville with 850 temps running from -4 to -6 across most of the state at 12z Saturday. The European Snowfall map actually shows snow for your area by Sat morning. There is likely to ba a stripe of 1″-4″ snows somewhere across the state during this time. I just can’t pinpoint exactly where, yet. Take care.

            • Andy Rose says:

              Thanks Mr Bailey

            • james says:

              Thanks for the comment Chris! Looking forward for an evening update.

            • TONEY says:

              you da man with the plan!!

            • TONEY says:

              chris, i just seen your tweet about the new nam and it looks as though ky and wva may be the sweet spots this go around…..as i keep saying you are da man!!!! i live just south of huntington, wva in the town of wayne, wva but even though it is a ky weather blog, this is the first thing that i look at every morning when i get out of bed and get on the net….i don’t even pay any attention to my local weather blogs any more…..you are far more accurate than any one out there……2nd to no one!!!!

            • Andrew says:

              Chris, you MUST post more often! I’ve rather enjoyed this little exchange today. :)

            • WXman says:

              That’s great and all, but we don’t live at 850mb level. Euro surface temps are 36 degrees at that time you speak of. GFS shows 38 degrees. How are we going to put snow on the ground at 37ish degrees with a weak system like this?

              • weather blog troll says:

                Give it a rest dude.

                • WXman says:

                  Why? Do you want to know all the details? Or do you only want to hear part of the details? Like I said, why are you and Andy and a few others contstantly trying to turn this into a contest? I’m pointing out facts, not arguing. Why are you trying to argue? Show me where I’m wrong about the 12Z runs and I’ll hush. Promise.

            • WXman says:

              By the way Chris, contrary to what some people leaving comments are trying to lead on to, I’m not arguing with you. I’m just throwing my thoughts into the discussion. Surface temps. are the bread and butter of these weather systems.

        • Marsha says:

          Me to wish he did it more often…

          • craig says:

            nice burn chris lol

            • WXman says:

              Who got burned? I still haven’t been shown a surface chart from ANY 12Z model run that shows us staying below freezing. This isn’t a contest, so you laypeople on here need to quit trying to turn it into one. I’m only pointing out details. Worked out pretty good this past storm, didn’t it?

              • Chris Mercer says:

                Lay people? I didn’t know this was a church? And we Pastor’s are wrong on occasion. Judge not lest yet be judged. Let’s all try to apply that measure to our comments!

                • WXman says:

                  Who said I meant it in religious terms? You aren’t putting words in another guy’s mouth are you? ;) Of course not. You’re one of the nice ones here. I’m just getting tired of people who don’t even know what they’re talking about making me out to look bad. I am not trying to argue with Chris or anybody else. There is a comments section on these blogs for a reason. As long as I’m just posting my thoughts the same way everybody else is, then people need to back off.

              • BubbaG says:

                You all are funny. Keep em’ commin’ :)

              • weather blog troll says:

                atta boy!

      • Andy Rose says:

        Thanks Chris for your input

      • WXman says:

        Yes, it does. 2 degrees C is above freezing last time I checked.

      • Ben C says:

        Not sure why people like Wxman love to spread false rumors. I do believe Lexington will get possibly at least 2 inches out of this and hopefully still have some remaining on the ground for the New Years storm……

    • Drew says:

      Euro is a little warm. Wxman the 12z gfs has some snow for some people. Gives lou about 3 inches with some mixing at first and slightly higher totals to the north. Southern and eastern ky do not get much of anything.

    • Chris Mercer says:

      From John Belski–who I will quote on Chris’ blog since he is retired and in a different market than Chris, and who by the way, is in my opinion, the Louisville equivalent of Chris’ care and work ethic.

      The next system coming up has potential for Friday night and Saturday.
      GEM: 3-6 inches
      JMA: 2 inches
      UKMET: 3-5 inches
      EURO: 2-4 inches
      NAM: less than 1 inch
      GFS: 2-4 inches
      NWS Louisville: light accumulations possible
      Weather Channel: Chance of snow
      AccuWeather Alarm: 5 inches
      AccuWeather Henry M: 0-3 inches

      • bjenks says:

        Sad to here that his last Post will be the end of this month. Have followed him since I was a kid….Sad to see him go (again)….Next to Chris WAVE3 is my next stop. Not always on a daily basis like the KWC…

        • Deedlegirl says:

          Who’s last post?

          • BubbaG says:

            Chris is moving to the Louisville market and John Belski is coming to Lexington……………..

            Chris wanted better chances of snow and be close to Ricky and the Cards…………….

            If you believe in the paranormal, wrestling and UFOs, you might believe that :)

            Notice I did not put big snow in there since that is true make believe ;)

      • Danny says:

        Good ol JB he is pretty much a met legend in Louisville. Im guessing the blog took up alot of his time meterology is in JB’s blood he will be posting his weather thoughts on his facebook page. Thanks to Mrs.Belski she always supported John and help out alot behind the scenes.

    • WXman says:

      I did a quick write up on January. It’s not looking good guys. No wonder Chris is getting frustrated. The weather in December WAS wild…it’s just that it missed Lexington.

  17. bjenks says:

    Thanks Chris!!!! Following the indicies and trends of snow fall overall in the US….Each of the past four strorms have placed snow pack to our Northwest..Each one inching closer to the Ohio River. It is only right for the next two lows to dump snow over the Ohio River counties Fri/Sat and New Years snow for Central and Southern Ky. Nice to see that Chris is saying positive signs in his post…(This was suppose to go on this post not the last one)

  18. Bernard P. Fife says:

    In a definitive forecast for one particular area…i’m saying no snow on the ground for the lake cumberland area. Bank on it!

  19. Chris Mercer says:

    Just saw where Belski is fully retiring and ending his blog as of 31 December. You better stop ragging on Chris. He is the best met left working anywhere in Kentucky!

  20. Todd says:

    After the last storm, my new approach is lower expectations each storm to 1in. or less of snow, anything more EPIC. Frankfort area!

  21. towarmforsnow says:

    Face it folks you live in a state where snow is a rare thing anymore. We have a better shot at thunderstorms during the winter instead of snow. I just wish it would get warm without the rain so I could golf. Four!!!

  22. Lincoln says:

    Whilst growing up I can remember most winters we received quite a large amount of snows late January/February. I do think we were spoiled two years ago when it snowed 20+ days in December. That being said, I think late January and February are when we will see our snow this year..Er, I hope!

  23. Snowman says:

    Got an idea Chris. There’s got to be a way to make a new and improved model that will beat these old ones. They miss so often! How about developing a CBWKYT Model to put the GFS and the rest to shame??

  24. weather blog troll says:

    Thanks Chris! Nice work and don’t let the knuckleheads get you down. Come on snow!

  25. Chris Mercer says:

    The newest HPC maps are interesting. As is the evening LMK forecast discussion. Looks like I-64 will be the dividing line between a dusting a maybe 1-4 inches of snow. Not a major storm, but something at least for Central KY.

    • WXman says:

      It looks like after the first main wave, there will be some lighter precip. swinging in from the Lakes. This may give us a small snow Saturday after the main precip. sheild is gone.

  26. WXman says:

    18Z NAM surface temps are even warmer…with the freezing line from just south of Indianapolis to just south of Columbus, OH and then into West Virginia. Since there are so many readers of the blog who don’t believe unless they see, here you go:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/18/nam_namer_033_10m_wnd_precip.gif

    :)

  27. Mike S says:

    My own Final Call for Snowfall went well for 4 out of 5 ‘official’ NWS sites. Of course, the one I missed entirely was my own home location in Louisville. NWS Louisville nailed that one. Overall, the NWS offices – Paducah, Indianapolis, Louisville, Wilmington – did a pretty decent job considering the complexity of the storm system. Blizzard warnings were overdone for some though and snow amounts were off for some in Ohio.
    And the NAM rocked despite overdoing it a little on QPF amounts.

  28. james says:

    A snipit from the Louisville NWS latest discussion. In general, we believe that the NAM is a bit too warm in its latest
    solutions.

  29. Chris Mercer says:

    Let’s all raise a toast to January of 1994! I think we can all agree that was a nice, unexpected snow!

  30. MikeM says:

    I love it. Chris acknowledges the snow dome and all of the snow deprived blog addicts (of which I am one) in central ky. And then weatherman gets a smack down down and still won’t be quiet. Gotta love the blog.:)

  31. Go Cards says:

    It will be a mix to start maybe even just rain. Colder air will come in as the low moves east. 1-3 inches is the max I see this “storm” producing.

  32. Aaron C. says:

    I think I’m going to take six and call the doc in the morning. All of this “snow chance that turns into nothing” is driving me insane. Literally.

  33. Go Cards says:

    Areas from Elizabethtown to Lexington and anywhere north of there best chance of 1-3 inches.

  34. Reeneyinky says:

    Did I read correctly that Mr. Bailey is leaving WKYT? What will we do for our “weather fix”? I sure hope it’s not so! Chris, the BLOG Rocks!

    • Chris Mercer says:

      Not Chris. John Belski from WAVE-3 in Louisville, famous for the “bread index” is ending his blog at the end of the month.

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