Good evening, gang. I continue to focus on two storms systems that will impact our weather over the next 5 days. The first will move in late Friday into Saturday. This storm is likely to put down a swath of accumulating snow across our region. Snow showers would then put down additional accumulations across central and eastern Ky on Saturday.
The HPC has put much of central and eastern Kentucky in a Slight Risk for 4″ of snow Friday night and Saturday and a moderate risk across the far north. Here’s a look…
Think of that in the way you think of a severe thunderstorm risk outlook from the SPC.
Most areas begin as rain from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon and evening. That will change to snow for many areas and here is a look at the area seeing the highest risk for accumulating snow…
A strong uplsope flow will then set in on Saturday and will combine with a disturbance working into the region to provide widespread snow showers and squalls into the evening. That should be enough to put down light accumulations that can add up to a few inches in some spots…
This will be a very close call on a “Threat” later tonight for some areas.
The next system continues to look like a snow producer New Years Eve and Day and that’s something we really need to keep an eye on over the weekend.
Have a great evening and take care.
Thanks Mr Bailey
Thanks again Chris. I’d like to see more than a dusting on this one. Won’t hold my breath of course. I quite enjoyed the snows when I lived in Hazard 2007-2009, it felt like it was non stop but I do miss my New England winters. The system that gave us nothing gave my friends and family in Western MA a few inches yesterday. >:(
I’m sure the terrain helps Hazard. In my part of Madison County the numbers are 8 – 6- 24. (In 8 years never more than 6 inches at once and not more than 24 TOTAL.) IWBIWISI
Did you not get in on the big March 5, 2008 snowstorm? I had 14 inches of snow at my house in Louisville from that one.
Nope…
Lexington is in BOTH highest risk zones…! Plus, the HPC 4″+ “chance”…
I like it…
GO STEELERS..!
I was thinking the same thing 🙂 I’m surprised though that Chris mentioned this being close to a threat for some areas. Didn’t think we were suppose to get that much. What is his threat criteria?
lately its been coating to 3 inches 😉
I think he’s thinking threat because of the impact on travel. If it were to snow a few inches Friday night, it would accumulate..resulting in traffic problems. Same with Saturday, snow showers ad squalls can reduce visibility and make the roads slick. If we got a few inches both days, that is 🙂
Decent upslope snowfall event shaping up for southeastern Kentucky Saturday. Love living in our beautiful mountains!!!
Here’s hoping for a nice little coating of snow…just not too much at once. We need lots of precipitation this winter after the drought last summer.
Thank you Chris.
Another system to track!
Maybe this one will prime the pump.
I have this feeling that NWS forecasted highs are going to bust and WAA is going to surge into Lexington tomorrow and increase temps to a high of around 49. Then temperatures will hang around the mid to low 40s in Lexington as the heaviest precipitation moves through tomorrow night. Temperatures will stubbornly remain in the low to mid 40s throughout most of Saturday before slowly declining later in the day causing even the up slope snows to be a mix for Lexington.
Sound about right? 😉
We should set up something on intrade where you can bet on an event happening or not. At least that way you can make good money if you bet against a snow storm hitting central kentucky.
You have to love how the days before and after the snowfall the high only reaches the upper 20’s, low 30’s… but when the snows actually supposed to fall… 40. Every.single.time.
I give up for any snow for southeastern KY. You read and here about BIG SNOW coming for the past month and if course nothing pans out.
Just heard a interesting fact, 65% of the lower 48 is covered in snow, Wow that says it all, 95% of ky has little to none, so what does it take 75 to 80% of the country in snow before KY joins in? That would leave only 20% of the country left, the gulf coast area? It might snow in Florida a few inches before KY joins in?
For some reason I’m feeling lucky on this one. If this doesn’t pan out, then I officially give up and am ready for sunshine and leaves on trees.
Yea, this one might be a little sneaker without a lot of fan fare, that is usually when we get our better snows thru Louisvile to Frankfort area!
Thanks for the update. There is a portion of about a dozen counties that doesn’t get covered in either of those maps, whaddya know I live in one of them, LOL. Gotta love it, cuz ya can’t change it!
WXMAN KEEP DOING WHAT YOUR DOING, I FOR ONE APPRECIATE OTHERS INPUT. CHRIS IS A BUSY FELLOW AND CAN’T KEEP ME UPDATED AS SOME OF THE OTHER PEOPLE ON HERE. CHRIS HAS THE BEST BLOG FOR LOCAL WEATHER BUT HE’S A BUSY GUY (FAMILY, TV JOB, ETC.) SO EVERYONES INPUT IS APPRECIATED BY MYSELF, IM A WEATHER NERD/GEEK BUT DON’T HAVE TIME TO STUDY MODELS. THAT BEING SAID SOMETIMES (ESPECIALLY IN WINTER) THE BLOG TAKES A NEGATIVE ATTITUDE, SOUNDS LIKE SECOND GRADERS ARGUING OVER WHICH CRAYOLA CRAYONS THEY CAN USE. IT’S WEATHER, WINTER WEATHER HAPPENED IN OUR FAVOR IN THE 90’S, IT CAN’T MISS US FOREVER, ODDS ARE IN OUR FAVOR. REMEBER think snow, stay positive, and believe. Bjenks your my boy blue. keep it real and as always KEEP IT POSITIVE.
Unless your keyboard is broke, please refrain from all caps. Seems loud and is garish to read.
your being oversensitive Darth Bubba 😉 at least you didn’t say he was yelling LoL
Bubba i love you man but kinda made my point. Is it really that difficulty to read because it’s in all caps? My apologies for making it more difficult to read, but remeber STAY POSTIVE, THINK SNOW
Sorry, did not mean to be the typing police. I did say please 🙂
Chris Bailey is the man. Best TV met. in the entire market as we call it, or region if you prefer. 😉
18Z GFS has a colder surface look to it. It also has a more intense look to the precip. shield. That’s the trend we want to see…let’s hope it continues.
Agreed, THINK SNOW STAY POSITIVE! Chris Bailey is the man.
Can’t help but notice the obvious dome over Kenova and Ashland. Must every storm loop up and around my area ?! Seriously!
so i take it Ashland hasn’t had any snow this yr ? of so join the rest of us
I’m still concerned about warm air, but we will see. You never know in KY.
Anbody have an idea when this might be rolling into the Louisville area Friday?
After 6pm
Thanks
The snow is forecast to fall during the night time hours in Louisville. I could see a few inches falling before morning even with the borderline temps. I am in now cast mode for any snow that is predicted around here.
last time I checked WXMAN was spot on. a week ago said GFS a\nd euro was shoing to warm,
and once again the one of any importance is NRE storm, but it as well to warm. 39 rain.
rolo buddy if we are lucky the Derby horses will be muddin’ in 4″ of snow this year. Maybe Spring will be flip flopped from average and we’ll get surprise snow storms instead of tornado outbreaks. It’s happened before.
Bring on the snow!!!!
wow folks the 00z nam is awesome !!!!!
with this new nam I would not be surprised for winter storm warnings to be issued
Actually, the 00Z NAM has not changed a bit with it’s surface temps. Still takes all of KY above freezing. This would drastically hurt accumulations. One thing is does do is show a slightly stronger precip. shield. But if snow on the ground is what you want, NAM doesn’t have it. Neither does Euro. GFS is the only one trending colder so far. Let’s see what Euro does at 00Z.
The warm air is what is concerning me as well, I think I have just fine tuned my head to believe it will not snow here this year one bit. Lol. I may not believe it snowed 3 inches if I was standing in it.
New 00z nam would be marginal winter storm warning from owensboro to cincinati. Also solid snows down to the western ky parkways
What about Louisville?
Right in the middle of heaviest accumulations. Would be a nice snow.
Thank you 🙂
Mehhhhh 😉
well since louisville is in the middle of owensboro and cincy….. it wont be included… cuz of that doughnut.. or the airport running about 5 degrees warmer
What about Lexington?
Basically, new NAM shows 3-5″ from near Henderson right up the Ohio River past Cincinnati. It’s a narrow band but would be a very nice hit for Henderson, Owensboro, Louisville to Cincy.
You did notice that the surface freezing line is from southern OH into central IN and then central IL, right? With the 32 line that far north, how do you figure 3-5″ for Louisville? Especially when you add the urban heat island effect? The GFS trending colder is a good sign..hopefully 06Z NAM and 00Z Euro will follow.
The NAM snow map is showing that snow along the Ohio River. I didn’t make it up.
I believe I read someones blog that said this storm had potential to drop 4-6 inches. They said due to mixing issues drop an inch or two off that. 2-5 inches would be what would accumulate.
I guess it’s possible to get a few inches with the temperature at 37 degrees.. but it’s going to have to snow HARD and for quite a while consistently to do it. The NAM does put a deformation zone right on top of Louisville so I guess we’ll see.
models dont detect dynamic cooling and it will happen especially if precip is heavy
Kinda hard to have dynamic cooling when the lower atmosphere is so saturated. You have to have dry air to get dynamic or evaporative cooling.
Wxman do you think eastern ky will get any snow west liberty
It is possible. Saw it on Wednesday in Trimble County. They were under a deformation band and got 4 inches while the temps were around 35 degrees. Though quite a bit of the snow did melt once the band moved out of there.
New nam shows 1″ best for Louisville!
I love to read all the folks witch doctor forecast on hear mostly for entertainment value, but this is the site of the winter weather expert Chris Bailey, He just tweeted recently that its showing signs of a much better outcome in Ncentral KY than the last flop, 24 to 30 hour away that is a good thing for Frankfort area!
I actually live in Corydon we seem to get more for some reason.
your like me.. about 25 miles away from the city.. im from new washington
One thing about the last storm that I found interesting that no one has really brought up. From the past situations where we’ve been “close” to a winter storm, we would always get blasted with 34 degree heavy rain and wind, right? With this last storm, we didn’t even get very much RAIN! Much less snow. Even if it had been snow it wouldn’t have amounted that that much. I think the total precip for that storm was like .30!
You are right, my rain gauge had about .35 in it so at very most 2 or 3 inches would have fell in Frankfort if it had all been snow!
I believe all the severe weather down south robbed the moisture up this way.
Rolo had actually talked about expecting a lot more rain than we had too.
Rolo figured it out a long time ago-predict everything and claim success afterwards.
Marklex, we got quite a bit of rain from the last system. And t stayed rain until themoisture was all but gone. I would wager tht we got about an inch or so at my house. Unfortunately, in southern KY, the snow love is just not there for us, it seems. I don’t think we could PAY it to snow more than flurries in our part of the state. Oh well, I love winter, and hope we get some consistantly cold temps, with or without snow. We need to get rid of some of the crawling critters that have beenso abundant this year. Talk about a weird weather year….we have certainly had it.
We seemed to get a lot of rain in Madison County as well. THe key to not being disappointing is to keep expectations low. Mine couldn’t have been much lower, therefore, no disappointment..
.88 inches of rain at my house.
I’ll believe it when I see snow on the ground. Too much gloom and doom or winter wonderland, which ever you prefer, in the winter weather forecasting. NOAA weather radio channel in my truck has been the most accurate forcast I’ve heard in years. Not hateing on Chris, just not buying the fluff.
You guys get commission on bread and milk for all this?
Chris should go to THREAT tonight. Local Lville Mets saying 2-4″ now along river and isolated 5″ amounts. Should see WSW by early morning
Along the river?? Those areas of Kentucky are technically part of Indiana and Ohio 😉 For most of use folks, such a track would be a big mehhhh.
WWA is what NWS out of Louisville will go with. 4″ or more requires WSW and that doesn’t look likely at the moment. If you were to believe the 00Z GFS you wouldn’t end up with anything. I personally put more stock into what GFS and Euro say than any other model. NAM usually gets the track right,but precip is always a bit high. Just ask the people in Ohio if they saw 2 feet of snow the NAM was predicting with the last storm.
Definitely agree. It seems that the gfs usually nails the southern systems. The nam seems to do better with clippers.
Why is this usually the case?
Another dud coming. And, unless we can get something out of the storm forecasted for the New years, you can forget Winter for a few weeks. Blowtorch warmth by early to mid January.
Once again, Southeastern Ky is in the DREADED DOME also. I wouldn’t be surprised if Palm Tree’s don’t start growing soon down in this area…lol. I have been here 2 years now and I have to say……………..the SNOW DOME of Kentucky is S/E & S/C Ky. Laurel, Whitley, Knox, McCreary, & Wayne seems to be more of a southern state than in Ky when it comes to cold and snow! Cold and Rain…Yes………………..Cold and Snow…No.
Ready for the beaches of Florida and Alabama already.
Last year those areas you speak of had much more snow than nCentral KY as little as it was state wide!
One good snow, about 9″ and it was gone next day. I guess someone left the top open long enough for 1 snow to sneak in.
Cold air is not going to be supportive during this event. And the system will move to fast. Sorry snow lovers! Haven’t you all learned by now?
If Vegas was setting over / under on this system for Louisville what would it be? I would go with 2.5 inches
2″ because it will be right in the middle of the forecasted 1-3.
Isn’t it pathetic that we are hoping and praying for 1-2 inches of snow? It is sad that it has come to this. Here is hoping to a generous snowfall for all to enjoy. I hope Bubba,Rolo,Bjenks,Andy Rose,Lincoln,and all the rest of us snow starved maniacs finally get that overachiever.
The only over achiever I want this weekend is the CATS, GO BIG BLUE! ( by the way card fans you have lost 4 straight to us in BBall!)
I really wouldn’t say that UK overachieved if they do beat us. Have equal or better talent at every position except pg. Siva needs to not turn the ball over 8 times and stay under control. Harrow will be your downfall if you lose.
Cards got a good team, Pitino won’t loose this one! I’m just stoking the fire, If the Cards win it all this year, what a great 2 years for hoops in KY 🙂
Not sure. I want CB to get a decent snow under his belt for the winter, but not seeing how warm air does not spoil another event. Seems a similar (though not as severe) pattern as last year as far as warm air being a bully.
We can not seem to get the proper mix where the moisture joins the cold air beyond about 10% of the moisture.
Hope we get some in muhlenberg co
what about south central KY?. I’m in Adair co. I am desperate for a good snow.
Putting down the umbrella, picking up the shovel here in Louisville! I am riding the snow-hope train all the way into the station!
I think 2 inches will be on the low side for Louisville on this one, my bad knee and he smell of snow in the air tonight cannot be denied, snow dome has met it’s match!
THE