A Quick Update

Good Wednesday afternoon. It’s a good thing we stayed on our feet and didn’t go for the head fake from the American Models of the GFS and NAM. Both are coming back toward a healthier snow system for Friday across the bluegrass state.

A snowier trend is likely to show up on both models over the next 24 hours. The GFS Ensemble mean offers up some pretty good juice…

GFSNow that the slightly stronger system is back… so to is the northwesterly wind snow squall threat for Friday night and Saturday.

I will give you another update later this evening and have the latest thoughts on WKYT-TV starting at 5. Don’t worry… I checked my own schedule and yes, I am supposed to work today. :)

Have a great day and take care.


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135 Responses to A Quick Update

  1. blizzardtim says:

    Looking forward to seeing some snow with all this cold weather

  2. LburgSnowDog says:

    T-minus….and counting…….will watch and wait…hoping for a very snowy event!!!!!! Sunny 23 degrees at this moment……

  3. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Does this mean a threat mode COULD happen when you get more info?

  4. machell says:

    Thanks for the quick update. I’ve got my weather fix for now. :) Happy happy happy!

  5. Tyler says:

    Here’s 12z GFS snowfall map for eastern KY

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=RLX

    and for western and central ky

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX

    you can see where the gfs has brought back the idea of accumulating snows especially for eastern ky. you really have to look at ohio in order to see how much different the 00z and 12z GFS really are!

    • Braden Petry says:

      Tyler,
      I am a new follower from on kwc. Chris you to work at wsaz. in wv. I was wondering if you maybe could awnser my question. On wsaz at 12:00 (your guys weather too ) they said the system was not looking that bad. Just said couple in. at most. Were the models saying that earlier today , and just got the higher amounts now. Wsaz yesterday that we might get a winter storm and changed it today. Thanks

    • Bernard P. Fife says:

      Don’t like those maps one bit! Gives my backyard, zero, zilch, nada!!

    • Andy Rose says:

      Wake us up when it shows something worth mentioning ;)

    • Scully says:

      Looks like wayne county is left out again… if this is right. :)

  6. Laura says:

    Thanks for the update Chris. I felt in my old bones that things were going to change for the good. Cant wait for the next update. Your the man.

  7. Paul says:

    For the sake of the kids (and the teachers) I hope it arrives early enough to call off school, so we don’t have to deal with a mid day dismissal. Doesn’t it ever snow during the evening anymore?

  8. Snowman says:

    What happened to forecast for Wednesday night-Thursday morning snow? Does everyone just forget these were forecast? Thursday-Friday turned into Friday and now it’s changed to Friday-Saturday which brings us once again to….wait for it….this weekend or next week…again.

    Just check total snow we’ve had versus the amount forecast. Would like to see the discrepancy. It’s been a rough winter, but not because of the weather. The roller coaster is moving quickly this year.

    • BubbaG says:

      I think Tommy Lee Jones or Will Smith zapped everybody with their pens. ;)

      Looks like only the upper area of the state is getting much of that system. Lucy might have caused some concussions during the falls.

      Nothing we can do, short of driving to meet the snow. It definitely is what it is. Looks like the central area ice again may be the light area of the snow we do actually get.

  9. Tim says:

    I just hope Louisville can get 4 inches out of this system

    • feederband says:

      I’m with you but the NWS LMK is calling for about an inch in the metro at this time. I still think the phasing will eventually take place but timing is everything. The suspense is killing me. A lot can happen between now and Friday.

  10. Dee says:

    Once again, I’ll believe it when I see it.

  11. Leeannie says:

    The dream is alive…..again…

  12. Israel says:

    Glad to hear more snow! The Euro model had been hinting at heavy rain about 2in in the last few model runs http://yr.no/place/United_States/Kentucky/Lexington/long.html

    • BubbaG says:

      I thought that part of the need for snow on this next event was a need for some snow for the Wednesday event to keep temperatures down and aid the moisture in the atmosphere?

      Be interesting to see CBs call for the Friday event, since looks like today’s was way north.

  13. Matthew says:

    I did see a weather forecast today at the doctors office that listed mostly ice and mix for most of Kentucky. Seems like the forecasts are changing pretty quickly. We are about 10 degrees below forecast right know so we may finish the day on the low side.
    I also noticed some had already lowered the todays temp forecast from this morning when they realized it was not going to warm as much. And most are now adjusting their forecast for the next few days downward in respect to temperature.

    Seems like we may get a decent snow in my parts. And on a weekend so the kids can enjoy it and not miss any school that has to be made up later.

  14. Cole in McCreary says:

    Here’s hoping those maps change! It leaves us out again, and we dont want ice!

  15. Heat Miser says:

    bahahahahaha
    nothing to see here folks, move on to next week … hahaha

  16. Lisa says:

    Thank you for giving me hope back for snow!!

  17. weatherdadof2 says:

    London/Corbin – 31 degrees @2pm….REALLY ready to be in the SE KY bullseye on this one! Otherwise, let’s get ready for Spring!

  18. Todd says:

    Sunshine and 31 in Frankfort area, getting warmer that I thought it would today!

    • Danny says:

      Todd thats not a bad thing remember we got another weak front coming through tonight that will keep temps tomorrow in the upper 20′s to lower 30′s. The increasingly cloudiness will help for tomorrow to keep temps in check.

  19. angie says:

    Hey chris, even though you left wsaz i still read your blog faithfully. Do you think this snow will start Thursday evening Early Friday morning I work at a school and we all want a SNOW day since we didn’t use any last year lol. Thanks for all you do.

  20. Sarah says:

    Just starting with steady flurries here in Cannonsburg (Boyd Co), right on time!

  21. Bradc says:

    Sunny and 34 here in knott co

  22. rolo says:

    EURO coming in BETTER as well, yep by tomm morn we couls have a all out WINTER STORM.

  23. james says:

    MJ from the NWS says “Do you like snow? The 12z Euro run does.” Means something coming from him. He is usually pretty conservative ;)

  24. Tom in Rockcastle says:

    Euro says game day bucket go boom.

  25. Go Cards says:

    I don’t see what the big deal is as of right now. 1-3 inches is at best what these models are showing right now. I guess I’ll wait and see if they show anything better tonight.

  26. Tom N Lincoln says:

    Its just one model run. We’ll know more in a few hours. BOTS!!!

  27. Tyler says:

    I have a subscription to accuweather pro therefore I have access to the Euro snowfall map. I can’t officially post that snowfall map on here. So I took sometime and drew out the basic contour of the 12z euro snowfall map. I know a lot of you have asked before about it….

    let me know if the link works

    https://twitter.com/tylerphillips24/status/294172171998203904/photo/1

  28. Neil says:

    There is quite the spread on the temperature side of things out there this afternoon. From the mid 40′s in the south/west to upper 10′s in the far north near Cincinnati at the 3 o’clock hour!

  29. Sue Flatwoods Ky says:

    light snow and 23 deg here for now!!!!!

  30. Tom in Rockcastle says:

    Yes, and I apologize for the pathetic attempt of humor, I was trying to parody an obnoxious KFC advertisement in which ones viewing experience of sporting events is elevated by simultaneously consuming products crafted by KFC. In said advertisement one is presented an audio and visual presentation, where Gallus gallus domesticus are being consumed by Homo sapiens wearing sporting apparel while observing athletic competition.

    • Miss Kate says:

      you’re cracking me up. and don’t forget they are couchgating!

    • Pat says:

      God, you watch to much of the Big Bang show. What the heck ae you talking about? I’m like Rolo and Bubba, I’m old school so please tell me what you said in understandable english.

  31. DougT10 says:

    Looks Like Ole Henry over at accuweather has put a good part of the state in the 3 to 6 in range on his snow map. Here is the link hope it works.
    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/sneaky-snow-and-friday-snowmaps-for-both/4716626

  32. Todd says:

    Up to 35 in Frankfort, getting much warmer than midday prediction, maybe a good thing, but might put ICE in the mix if the cool down tomorrow comes up short?

  33. KeavyMan01 says:

    I am still seriously thinking most if not all of Kentucky will go under an Advisory…Watch…and/or warning but later this evening for Friday. Perhaps tomorrow tho. Sit back & wait & see.

  34. bjenks says:

    NWS update at 322pm Lou. KY……..

    NOTHING TO SEE HERE FOLKS…!!!!! MOVE A LONG!!!!!!!

    An inch at best…… Oh well……Bring on spring…

  35. Tyler says:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=18&image=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_063_precip_ptot.gif

    below is the 18Z NAM QPF totals!!

    Certainly stronger than the 12z run. Look how close it is to bringingto 0.50-.75″ of precip into southeastern ohio. I believe the 00z run will show a true turn around!

  36. bjenks says:

    Will have to wait until 1st week of Feb. to get more cold and possible snow….HA HA!!!!!….Next week next week next week…..Spring is here.

  37. Todd says:

    NWS model jumping? 1 inch or less is my standard for every storm anyway, anything more EPIC!

  38. Fred says:

    Looks like the sky is about to cut loose at any time here in Winchester, Kentucky….. Im guessing that’s the first system for a couple of inches tonight???? Anyone else in Winchester see what I’m talking about?

    • Todd says:

      Where are you seeing 2 inches of snow tonight, maybe south central Ohio?

      • Fred says:

        I thought they was saying a weak system was coming in here for here, I guess it’s more up north from what I see and hear now. Are you in Winchester? How much you think we will get?

        • Todd says:

          No, Frankfort, I know they are calling for a little snow around cinn and extreme east KY tonight!

        • BubbaG says:

          That was sooooo last night! ;)

          Yep, the expected system to impact here was way north in the state. Hence my concern with this one. If the models mucked something up less than 24 hours and have been waffling with this event to the point of cloud highs and dirt lows, what makes this different?

          The one today missed us to the north and seems the one later in the week will be more south than expected. We could end up with a few inches, but seems we needed snow cover from the system that missed most of us today.

  39. rolo says:

    WSWgoinbg up for few counties in TENN,

    by time u go bed I see SCENT/SE KY going WSWATCHES if not u will wake up to a WSW

  40. WendyT says:

    Got a bit warmer than forecast today. What impact, if any, will it have on Fri. storm?

  41. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Looking exciting in Tennessee/Va with wsw going up for heavy amounts of snow and ice. At least that means that London won’t be on the rainy side this time:)

  42. joshua says:

    Just saw the forecast from lex18 and bill said little snow actually a light snow and saw around an inch for eastern Ky. Why does his differ so much from Bailey’s forecast. My opinion is this, if your not a snow lover then u hope for no snow and go with the model that shows the least amount of snow, as for me I’m with Chris all the way hit or miss he’s the best bar none.

  43. kyteach74 says:

    All of the roads in Versailles and many backroads in Lexington have been pretreated…so silly me thought we were going to get something tonight – but looking at the radar – nada. Surely they wouldn’t pretreat for Friday on Wednesday afternoon!?!?!?

  44. Rachel says:

    Anything happening with what was supposed to be the little clipper coming through tonight. At one point someone had said (maybe Chris/maybe not, I can’t remember) that it could put down an inch or so itself… is this still the case?

    As for Friday’s storm, everyone is cracking me up. Yesterday morning it was “we have to wait until tomorrow afternoon’s model runs”, then last night it was “it’s over, no snow”, now we’re at today’s runs which yesterday were the ones everyone said we had to watch for and it appears we’re at least a little back in business. So yeah, why don’t most of you follow your own advice to begin with? I mean seriously, some of you are nowing saying snow who last night were determined it was O.V.E.R. Have we learned nothing the past few years?

    • Rachel says:

      *now saying…

    • WEAREUK says:

      1. Yes the clipper is affecting northern ky right now
      2. Weather forcasting is very difficult, things change which is what happen between yest and todays models.
      3. Smile..Life isnt that bad for weather to make u negative like this.

        • Rachel says:

          … or not.
          My comments about the posters last night were meant as a joke. In other words, I find it hilarious that nearly every single one of the ones who said all day “we must wait until tomorrow!” were throwing in the towel by 10 pm last night and now, they’re all suddenly back on board. It’s hilarious! And I’m not being negative… I mean it literally, I think the past couple of years have shown that it can look like it will hit us dead on and somehow miss altogether… or, like last march, an inch can turn into 5 without much warning. It’s not being negative to go with the flow. I was just pointing out the HUMOR in the online “mets” flip flopping last night.

          So yeah… #notroasted :P

          • BubbaG says:

            Your observation is 100% correct, IMO and some folks rationalize with convenient opinions.

            Case in point, though WX had poor tact, he was correct. “Naysayers” get weeded out and the trend seems to be a fan club site rather than an objective view of the weather. Facts be darned.

            Perhaps the accumulation of misses rather than snow has caused people to be too sensitive now. The one thing that would fix the vibe is a trend buster, but I am not seeing it. Seems the actual result trend has won out every time over the outlooks.

      • BubbaG says:

        Seems a convenient position. If correct, “Great forecast” and if not, “Hey it’s the weather”.

        I hope mets do not follow that creed… At least not out loud.

  45. Joseph says:

    The “Voice of Reason” aka Bill M says move along nothing to see here. Maybe a coating to an inch total if that.

    • BubbaG says:

      Based on trend up until today, perhaps the voice of the obvious ;)

    • Pat says:

      Yesterday Meck was saying things looked very interesting for Friday morning through Saturday. Heck, I can wait until things start happening and then say it’s going to snow. I would rahter listen to Chris and know about the possibilities than ride the wagon until it happens.

  46. Big John says:

    Rolo, you said you’d disappear for 2 years if your predictions were wrong. Be a man of your word and we’ll see ya in 2015 hill rat! ;)

  47. rolo says:

    my 3-8 inches I stand by from earlier, CHRIS just said they aint going phase and the soujtern system would be quick mover so 1-3 inches with isolated 4 would be the norm.

    with backside snow showers.

    I still think hasd shot at MERGING just to our east and fiving SE KY alot more than the LOCASL METS and CHRIS are predicting now.

    • BubbaG says:

      I think the mountains and the eastern third of the state has the best shot. Not seeing how we can all be gung-ho yesterday, then down and out last night and now a resurgence today. The oscillation of outlooks does not seem to make sense and seems too reactive to get excited about.

      I stand by we needed some snow cover from the system that missed us today. Warm air might steel some of the totals as a result, unless higher elevation.

      Too much instability to have any confidence beyond east KY. This seems another miss for the central part, unless a coating or inch counts. Please note CB has yet to peg a snow map and rightly so.

      One more time, how can we have confidence in models that have went all over the place for this event and did not even get the one for today right?

  48. rolo says:

    just wondering am I the only on watching the LOCAL weather,lol

    Bill MECK and Chris both sayinmg same thing 1 to 3 inches. farther south and SE u are more u get.

    I end my lasty thoughts on storm with thjis, I predict u wake up tomm and u read WSW issued for SE/E KY.

    • rolo says:

      if u get the phasing of the 2 storms u would have a BIG DADDY and bombing out situation wehich would slow things down, at this time that not happeningh, the SOUTHERN LOW moves thru tenn would slow down a bit then PHASE!! be on.

      we had suprises before, and I can see this hasppening with the overnite runs.

      luv u all, be safe as if we dont get 4 plus inches WINTER STORM CRITERIA storm I said I would step away from the weather for awhile, so lets hope low to south slows down and we can get a 2013 SUPRISE!!! nothingelse 2-3 inxhes widespread anyway.

    • Andy Rose says:

      border counties only 1-3 inches LoL no WSW for us rolo

      • BubbaG says:

        Considering this was the big start for snow chances and the consistent misses for the past two winters. I think we are all really around here is for each others company ;)

        Deep inside we know it is what it is this winter. Even with the cold air to rustle things up, “meh” is the result. Our 33 degree and above for over 90% of system moisture is holding firm. If it is cold, it just goes around most of us.

        Wild.

  49. KeavyMan01 says:

    Winter Storm Watches out now for parts of northern Ga, NW S. Carolina, Western North Carolina, and SW Va.

    Winter Weather Advisory out for parts of SE Ohio and Western West Va.

    WONTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  50. Southeast says:

    Bell Co and Harlan Co is going to be burried with nearly 8″ of snow come Saturday morning. Watch and see.

  51. kit says:

    Can someone please tell me there Friday outlook for Louisville :) :) :)

  52. rolo says:

    yea ANDY ever county south of u and some SW are under a WSW already, that all in TENNN but .40 to .75 precip be more than 3 inches here as well.

    BILL MECK feww others talking bout VIRGA STORM for alot, I agree LEXINGTON north AIR will be alot dryer, so u will have tough time moisdt up.

    S/SEKY will overcome the dry air as we are closer to the HEVIER MOISTURE.

  53. Todd says:

    Here is a wild stat for ya snow freeks, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and North Carolina all have had more snow than Chicago??

  54. Bob says:

    What is the Friday system looking like for Knott County guys?

  55. mikew says:

    Andy do you think knox laurel stands a chance for any acumulation?

  56. Andy Rose says:

    1-3 inches or less based on what has happened so far this so called winter

  57. sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

    Is this snow this eve going to miss KY complely? Had some light snow earlier but that was it!

  58. troy says:

    Bring the snow! 4.5″ last week in Middlesboro and looking forward to another 4″ or more Friday. Just hoping for NO freezing rain as our neighboring counties across the border in Tennessee and Virginia are under a WSW for a mixed bag. Rather this misses us completely than to have ice….. BTW, to those working (and I use that word loosely) in the Jackson WS….get the doughnut out of your mouths and do your homework….your handling of last weeks event was a farce at best compared to Chris’ Morristown,TN WS, and Knoxville mets.

  59. Johnny says:

    Rolo, you do realize you haven’t been right about anything the past four years don’t you?

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