Good Wednesday evening. I continue to like the Thursday Night and Friday system and this looks to be a fairly decent impact event across much of the state. Light snow will break out across western Kentucky Thursday night and expand north and east from there.
Some thoughts:
– Moisture will increase rapidly from southwest to northeast Thursday night and Friday morning.
– This will be a fairly quick moving system.
– While much of what falls will be snow, southern Kentucky may get in on a nasty mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain for a time.
– Another arctic front arrives Friday night with snow showers and squalls into early Saturday.
How much snow can we expect? I will have a First Call For Snowfall coming up tonight at 11 on WKYT-TV and then here on the blog later tonight.
Have a great rest of the evening and take care.
I’ll be in front of the TV waiting!! Thanks CB!
We will never learn.
never ever.
Most of us have, but are creatures of habit.
I like it because there is FAR more entertainment here than on TV 🙂 It is like a cross between Storm chasers, Ghost Hunters and Honey Boo Boo 🙂
I have only seen previews of Boo Boo, but do love the South Park episode’ “Raising the Bar” making fun of Boo Boo and James Cameron 🙂
A perfect analogy Bubba……just perfect lol 🙂
Ain’t it the truth!!
Bet I can tell you where the skeet and freezing rain will fall…..Somerset! Oh we’ll. hoping I am wrong but doubting it. Thanks, Chris. Looking forward to your map and thoughts.
Hoping your wrong about the “skeet”!
Was there a competition planned? I remember hauling some big skeet onto shelves back when I worked a warehouse.
Don’t drop those things. Man, they break easily.
🙂 Never a dull moment. lol
Sounds slippery?
Let’s not use the word skeet.. That is a sexual term in today’s hip hop world.
Hip hop? Bunnies hip hop in snow. They certainly don’t hip hop in sleet.
or skeet for that matter.
I’ve had good laugh over this skeet deal. There was a rap song by Lil Jon that used the slang !! Skeet !! Oh skeet skeet skeet.
Hilarious…..
Omg I hope it don’t skeet skeet skeet in Knott County i don’t know if salt could get that off the road. I can’t stop laughing!
Chris, you are such a tease!
What is the chance of a snow day in Somerset on Friday??
Not a good bet. I still ask everyone to compare the amount of snow they have received to the amount that has been FORECAST this winter. Big discrepancy. No one is pegging this winter or lack thereof.
meck has rain for most of southern ky i think during his 6 oclock run. i was visting someones house and they were watching meck, thats the forcast i saw on there. 0.3 for clay county total snowfall through fri evening, thats a first call what he says.
There where you went wrong I refuse to watch anything but WKYT Chris bailey he’s our hero..lol
Wednesday forecast disappeared as did the predicted swath of light snow.
We’re back to the Thursday night-Friday forecast now which was Friday night-Saturday earlier today. The only thing tougher than being a weather man is being a weather man fan. Good luck, Mr. Bailey.
Wednesday forecast disappeared as did the predicted swath of light snow.
We’re back to the Thursday night-Friday forecast now which was Friday night-Saturday earlier today. The only thing tougher than being a weather man is being a weather man fan. Good luck, Mr. Bailey.
I think we REALLY needed the snow cover from the system that missed us to maximize any result for Friday.
I’m a bit confused. Chris seems to think the models are coming “back” to more precip for KY. Both the Louisville and Paducah NWS afternoon discussions are saying lighter amounts. Maybe just eastern KY going to get something decent from this.
Not long to find out. CB has been more right than wrong, but the last two years have been funky for all mets. Some more than others.
The models were showing basically nothing yesterday. Today 1-3 inches. Few days ago were showing 3-6 inches. It is very easy to be confused if you follow the weather models. It is crazy to believe anything they show anymore.
So, what’s the verdict for Madison County? Any snow or is it a cold rain and change over to snow when the moisture has gone bye-bye? Thanks Chris for all the hard work you do for us snow lovers!
Good luck anybody guessing (too much up & down with the models). CB will probably post a map later tonight or early in the AM.
The one average model trend that seems consistent is in spite of the ups & downs, the overall direction is a relatively lighter event. Perhaps if we got the snow cover today, that would help keep temps down and less of a mix issue for parts of the state.
Oh Chris, us teachers are the ones that want to see that snow map the most but we are also the ones that have to be in bed the earliest. Can you make a special request to post the snow map say around 9:30 or so?? 🙂
Why do I have a feeling this is gonna be one of those no one takes it seriously at all, we head to school Friday morning and then by 9 am everyone’s freaking out. I hate those days!
happened to bell county last week
I replied earlier and it didn’t go through I guess! Ack. Yes, I remember that, and it was very dangerous for the buses that got stuck and the students on them. I feel like not much is being said about this system on local media so I don’t expect Fayette county to be paying attention and I highly expect to be there Friday morning. They make their call by 5:30 in the morning so if it’s not snowing by then, we’ll be in school when it hits. Bah.
Those days are CRAZY!!! Gosh, I sure hope schools make a decision before the busses start running their routes Friday morning!
WOW! It looks like the snow missed us big time this evening. It’s not even close!
And that was based on models less the 24 hours out.
They always miss for the worse and not the better.
My point as well for the past five years. Uncanny they are always wrong in the same direction. Overstated.
they treated US 23 today here in Greenup Co I guess thinking we were going to get that snow this eve, i guess that was alot of money down the drain! Sure hope we get some SNOW here in East KY (Ashland area) Friday!!!!!
They treated streets in Owensboro the last two days too. My guess is city maintenance workers bored and decided to “test” their equipment. I think we’re in the dreaded dome these days too. Missed two events Christmas week and look to miss this one too. Maybe combined 2″ of snow here this season. Better than last year but still more misses than hits. 🙁
we had 3 inches of snow after christmas and we still had snow on the ground a week later, my kids snowman lasted a week, they were HAPPY! But they want a GOOD snow, My twins are 10 yrs old and have never really seen a GOOD snow!!!!
They are just trying to get rid of 3 year old salt they haven’t used yet.
LOL
Everyone in Florida (where I’m from) wants to see snow but don’t know it they’ll like it. Everyone in Minnesota (where i lived for a year) hates snow, and everyone in Kentucky loves snow. Odd
Funny – I have friends in Minnesota and they all LOVE the snow and cold weather. They actually said a lot of people stay there because they love the extremes.
Yep, I work with a lot of stores in that area (the whole state) and they were very disappointed about last year’s wimpy winter there. This year is a normal winter for them.
30 days until the Reds first spring training game. Clock is ticking toward spring
Roads were treated in Jefferson Co. Tuesday. I noticed roads treated in Spencer today. I, for one, would not mind a snow day Friday.
i think the roads have been treated so many times for NON snows that when we do get one it sure wont stick to the roads, tooooo much stuff built up!! LOL
Looking at nws service forecast, high 29 thursday, high 36 friday with sleet/snow/rain, high 29 saturday, imagine that. Always warms up when moisture is around.
0z nam comes in with more precipitation. Were trending in the right direction with each run. 🙂 Waiting on GFS now.
Funny, I was posting that same time Chris was tweeting it 🙂
Definitely more moisture this run and system look like it was moving more North east…Alot of tenn/ky border may have ice /sleet looked like to me..Eastern ky looks like a decent hit but the oc line pretty close..Best run of the day..
also some good snow squalls saturday
The 00z NAM looks to have more precipitation ( snow ) for central and eastern parts of the states, with snow really falling at 1pm. But it will change Tomorrow. Is there a such thing as WA weatherholics anonymous I feel as if i need to find a meeting in my town.
I’ve been looking for a weather therapist for years. Let me know if you find one. 😉
Maybe more than an inch for Frankfort? EPIC
If I remember correctly you have had snow this year and that’s more than I can say in eky……wish we could all get a good one!
That is correct, but none since December, this is my way of getting the snow gods attention?
Looks like on the radar a band is breaking off near Covington and heading toward NE Ky maybe even as far SE as Pike Co. Just looks that way. Probably will just lose moisture and evaporate into thin air as soon as it hits the Ky line.
If it snows two inches I will get the blog regulars for the past almost five years tattooed onto my arm!!
My real name is Bubba Geckeldsnorteneedleiremishnick 🙂
🙂
Of course it’s the nam and we all know it like’s to over do precip…None the less a good run especially the movement N/E…Hopefully other model’s show the same trend…Right now will predict 3-5 for eastern ky…
Somebody has got to post the new NAM snow map.
I do not have the new snowfall total map, but here is another link you can look at to see the 00Z Precip run if you would like.
LINK: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=nam&run=00&fhr=99&field=ptype
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y266/obxwx/00znamsnow_SE060_zpsc9bc58d5.gif
If we continue to get the N/W movement lookout….Also i meant the system moved more N/W in earlier post..
our high temp this afternoon was 24 deg and it is still 24 deg at 10:30! Crazy!
Wow, my high was 37 and we’re at 21 right now. The temp dropped like a rock after the sun went down.
it stayed cloudy, windy and had a few snow showers today between 1:30 and 3:30, temp was 12 this morn, it was a heat wave when we hit 24 deg. lol Ready for some SNOW with this cold air!!!!
Here is the 00Z NAM Snowfall Total Maps I am finding online. Jackson, KY Operational Area: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
Louisville, KY Operational Area: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX
Big difference between that and the one Ready4Snow posted.
the one i posted was for total through saturday…
So what about south central Ky? I’m in Adair County. Any thoughts on snow totals for us??!! Would love some feedback!
There was some conversion around 8pm tonight or there abouts referring to “skeet” and “hip hop”. I would like to share a very personal story with my friends here. I had a pet frog once. He liked to hip and hop. He liked hip hop music. Until alas,he hopped on some “skeet” and broke his hip,there for he hops no more. True story….
Funny how the NAM still shows one maybe two inches and everyone is freaking out. Just a day or two ago the NAM was considered garbage. Funny how that works.
Wow……up to 1inch of snow for Louisville. that’s What our meteorologist said. please say he is wrong? 🙂
I think folks need to pay less attention too the actual snowfall total output of this particular run (00Z NAM)…and pay more attention to the trend…which is a model that is getting moister and moister with each run…Let’s also not forget to pay attention to Chris…He will be making a first call tonight, and his forecasts are ususally pretty darn good.
Very funny folks, very funny. I hope y’all are simply making fun of me, rather than having no idea what that means in slang terms. http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20101217183427AAB5gNy
Lincoln. I clicked on your link and had no idea that skeet meant that. Was just making reference to person say that by mistake instead of sleet. Had no clue. Sorry.
I filed that under something interuptus.
Anyone interested come check out my podcast, its my first one so it’ll be rough and its live.
http://www.spreaker.com/user/riddlesweather/my_shot_at_stardom
http://www.spreaker.com/user/riddlesweather/episode_1 Thats the correct link! I am talking live.
Says it’s deleted.
Chris says just mix for southern ky 1-3 north of laurel and 2-4 for jackson to pike and ashland. Stiffed again
Nuke-effect snow! I read this interesting article about a powerplant that produced up to an inch of snow! Wow! Human-made snow http://www.climatecentral.org/news/nuclear-snow-power-plant-produces-snow-in-penn-15501 never would’ve thought it was possible…
Same thing happened up in northern Illinois. The large cooling ponds from the nuclear generating stations are quite warm. Add the very cold air blowing across these lakes (some are 2 miles wide and 2 miles long) and you can get localized lake effect or in this pond-effect snow.
chris’s first call map on wkyt is not showing anyone above 4″…..as he said though we have 36hrs to go! also shows southern and southeastern Kentucky with freezing rain, sleet and snow!
dont know if it is a good spot to be this early or not but the first call map has me in the 2 – 4 in of snow!!!!! Hope that pans out!!!!!!!
Has the GFS came out.
GFS was wimpy!!! weaker than 18z run
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfssnowdepth072.gif
GFS snowfall map
If you look at the vertical thermal profiles, you would see why there is not that much snow. The GFS does keep surface temperatures cold, but does bring in a substantial amount of warm air aloft, especially across southern KY.
if you all head over to bailey’s facebook page you can see his first call map!
already throwed up in my mouth once seeing rain and mix again for us thanks anyways though
Folks…the key to forecasting this stuff is to not pay attention to any one model…but to blend.
Regarding 00Z GFS…I just looked at it and there is a problem with it. It probably is too warm, but also, has rain wrapping UP the backside into central and eastern KY. Not meteorlogically possible.
NWS Morristown TN now has Winter Storm Watch out for its coverage area, mainly for freezing rain :(. Of course, Morristown’s jurisdiction is alongside much of southeastern KY.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mrx&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch
My 2-cents…You can see the problem with the 00Z GFS run here. The moisture is still there, but the P-type is wrong at the end of the system, which throws off those snowfall total maps. In this setup, you do not start as rain and end as snow…So the GFS shows the moisture, but does not show the right snowfall total.
Also, since the GFS has trended too warm this year, expect is to stay as snow…not end as rain.
Link: http://coolwx.com/ptype/