Midday Update

Good afternoon everyone. Everything is still a go for a quick hitting winter weather event across the state late tonight into Friday. There is nothing about my forecast map that I want to change at the time. That may change later today with the final call, but I like what I have out.

This will be a quick hitting system that rolls from southwest to northeast across the state. Much of the action will be out of the state by the middle of the afternoon Friday.

The timing of this system will be the main issue as it will have a big impact on the Friday morning commute. School administrators will be caught in that dreaded area of precipitation moving in right around the time the buses start rolling.

Here’s the call I continue to roll with…

Special

I will have updates later this evening and will have the very latest on WKYT-TV starting at 5. Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.


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125 Responses to Midday Update

  1. Coffeady says:

    No snow love for southern Ky, as usual. Thanks, Chris. Would have liked better news for us but, it is what it is.

  2. Miss Kate says:

    come on 3 inches!!!!

  3. Connor says:

    Popeye,

    May I please have a hamburger sandwich?

    Wimpy

  4. Johnny says:

    Another bust. All this hype and nothing at all … AGAIN.

    • BubbaG says:

      Considering the week long build up followed two up and down points, this somehow has trumped every build up before it as far as let downs.

      CB really should go Jedi Met and turn in all them models for the Force. Considering the models appear to be using fiction already, no harm, no foul :)

      Though this will be a wimpy event for snow, the roads could become more dangerous. People have no choice but slow down with big snow and is why there are more accidents with these smaller events.

  5. E-TownKY says:

    I am pretty convinced this is how it will be for the rest of ‘winter’… warm up/moisture/rain then cold/flurry or dry….then warm up again.
    Was hoping this winter would be different than last year,but apparently not. LOL, kinda depressing to realize even I have become too weary to remain hopeful with being let down again and again,two years running. KY has beaten down winter’s biggest fan.

    Ole ETown has given up the fight.
    Tell BlizzTim he must carry the torch. ;)

  6. Willie says:

    Tomorrow morning will be interesting to see what schools end up doing. I’m still betting on the hour delay to get an idea of what is going to happen then most will end up calling off.

    Why waste time going, if you are just going to release at noon?

    • cmchrisreece says:

      If it’s Fayette Co. They wouldn’t release at noon. But would instead keep students all day until the roads cleared by the afternoon.

  7. Weatherman2015 says:

    It is not hype! The models are not good wih winter weather systems. We get our hopes slashed. You cannot trust a model until the storm crashes ashore and is sampled. For instance, last nights GFS had an apps runner snowstorm for next Thursday while the EURO had sunny and dry. You can’t trust models in winter.

  8. Ryan Hall says:

    Click my name for KYWXChat

  9. Wes says:

    We will not have “old school” snows like we used to…those days are gone

  10. Snowgoose says:

    Tennessee is covered with Winter Storm watches and warnings lol….Only in Ky. can the state to our south get blasted and we get….nada

  11. Joyce says:

    What time is the next model run? Maybe it will look better……….

  12. Bernard P. Fife says:

    After this I think legislation should be introduced renaming Kentucky’s seasons as follows:
    Spring
    Summer
    Fall
    Post Fall
    Pre Spring

  13. james says:

    Will probably be some wwa’s go up in the NWS late afternoon update.

  14. Beau Dodson says:

    The deadly side of light wintry precipitation events – they typically kill more people than your normal tornado watch/tornado outbreak situation.

    http://icyroadsafety.com/blog/

  15. Rodney Weiger says:

    People will you stop all the belly aching. No one makes you read this site and if you dont like his thoughts then for goodness sakes stay away or at least dont comment. Please read what you write then maybe you will realize how dumb some of you sound. Weather is cyclical and trends sometimes last decades. Tennessee is in a warning because of ice please educate yourselves.

  16. Shawon says:

    The timing is the interesting question to me. A local met here in Cincinnati was clear in stating that the snow would NOT arrive early enough to affect the morning commute up here. Yet Chris just put out a whole paragraph stating differently.

    IF the snow could hold off until 9-10AM then stop in time for evening rush I think we could handle 1-2, maybe 3 inches.

  17. Todd says:

    Blog getting silent, must be a lot of depressed snow lovers out their!

    • Marsha says:

      Could be the trashing of Chris over on Wxman blog,try to give them a ear full but it would not let me post…

      • Todd says:

        Wxman a wanna B, Chris is the winter weather expert and he is jealous ;)

        • BubbaG says:

          His candor and tact are not up to par, but he has been correct. Then again, anybody that throws most of the model data out and goes by the rolling average trend would be correct.

      • cjmajorgirl24 says:

        It amazes me that people choose to bash Chris Bailey. He spends his FREE time writing this blog, time that is taken away from his family and other things that he loves doing. IF people don’t like what Chris writes, why bother even reading his words? The internet is a huge world….let them go somewhere else <3! I have nothing but respect for Mr. Bailey!!

        • BubbaG says:

          Who is bashing CB? He is posting his thoughts on the blog based on the data and his insight.

          I think people are bashing the models at their fictitious winter solutions.

  18. Stephanie says:

    :( Is Laurel County EVER going to get in on the snow? Or are we doomed to be covered by an ever present “snow dome”?

  19. kywatchman says:

    I would not lose heart, tell’em Rolo……………..

    • BubbaG says:

      I think Rolo is heading off into the sunset for his two year self-imposed exile. Perhaps he will cut himself some slack, since this coming event has taken the prize for silly.

      • bjenks says:

        Cold air in place and still no storm…North / South
        Kentucky only does well with phasing storms. Then we are always on the fence.

  20. Chris Mercer says:

    Hey, LMK’s forecast discussion is music to my ears. If it is not going to be a big snow event (greater than 4 inches) would rather not deal with the ice. LMK says we will be lucky to get to an EPIC snow event( 1 inch or great thanks toTodd) here in Lawrenceburg, but ice south of us. Would much rather have a skiff of snow than a skiff of ice anyday.

    • Todd says:

      Anything more than an inch EPIC :)
      Already had one EPIC in December 4 inches, that overachieved, maybe this one will??

      • Chris Mercer says:

        Yeah–I had that same system in December. My seasonal total is about 4-5 inches. Last year I had 8 inches total and most of that fell on March 4

        • Todd says:

          Frankfort had maybe 2 inches last winter until that march surprise, only time will tell but it only takes one good storm to put us above average in snow totals?

          • Chris Mercer says:

            That is correct. 1889-1890 is by far the warmest winter on record here (average temp of like 47—think of that) and then spring brings over 13 inches of snow.

        • BubbaG says:

          That means you have already got 400% more snow than Richmond and for some parts, infinitely so ;)

  21. Cole in McCreary says:

    Winter Weather Advisory
    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    249 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM FRIDAY…

    .A WINTER STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
    OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL START AS SNOW AND THEN TURN
    TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
    OUT OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON…THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
    A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
    NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
    CREATE HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS DUE TO THE FREEZING ROAD
    TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE EVENT.

    KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-114-116-117-250400-
    /O.NEW.KJKL.WW.Y.0004.130125T0700Z-130126T0400Z/
    ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-
    BELL-HARLAN-OWSLEY-CLAY-LESLIE-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MOUNT VERNON…MCKEE…SOMERSET…
    LONDON…MONTICELLO…WHITLEY CITY…CORBIN…WILLIAMSBURG…
    BARBOURVILLE…MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…HARLAN…BOONEVILLE…
    MANCHESTER…HYDEN
    249 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

  22. Southeast says:

    Bell Co and Middlesboro schools are called off for tomorrow already. After that so called dusting that NWS gave last Thursday and we received 5-6″ of snow. Another Jackson epic fail.

  23. Chris Mercer says:

    On a side note, why don’t MJ or WXMAN comment on here any longer? I know they might have been a bit more antagonistic towards the snow/cold ideas Chris keeps talking about–even though I always thought this was a place Chris talked about “potential” not “reality” (I’ll post some stats about 5:00 comparing this winter to previous winters). They haven’t been blocked have they?

    • BubbaG says:

      I think MJ’s policy is if there is nothing good to post, post nothing.

      • Chris Mercer says:

        You are probably right. His extended forecast discussions on LMK’s webpage are outstanding. He is the consummate professional.

        • BubbaG says:

          True dat! We just do not want to use MJ as a barometer- considering “if there is nothing good to post, post nothing”. ;) ……..

          That IS something to think about though….

        • MJ says:

          Thanks for the kind comments. I do appreciate them.

          • Kat says:

            I don’t post much but have been following the blog for 3 years now, as well as several others, take this with a grain of salt, forecast are like buttholes everyone has one and thinks theirs is right, if you cant express your thoughts then you shouldnt allow others to post.

    • MJ says:

      I have not been blocked. I have just chose not to comment as much given all the bickering. Chris and I have are really on good terms, even though we do have differing forecast opinions at times. Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things. :)

    • Marsha says:

      Wxman has been blog for good reason MJ has done nothing that I have read on here I think he has much more respect for Chris then Wxman…

  24. Dara says:

    According to his blog he has been blocked from this blog and twitter…..

  25. cjmajorgirl24 says:

    One more thing about the haters-then I promise to shut up. People wouldn’t even know they had a blog if Mr. Bailey wasn’t nice enough to ALLOW them to advertise here. Nice way to repay him-isn’t it?

    • BubbaG says:

      What haters? If people differ in view, it can be done in a respectful manner.

      • cjmajorgirl24 says:

        I agree-it sure can be..but it isn’t always done that way, BubbaG!!

        • BubbaG says:

          True dat. As we all know, the only thing that can give a true positive vibe again is a real good, dare I say “big” snow.

          The over-performing clippers did the trick for awhile, but for most of us, those are now in the same apparent extinction pattern as big snow. Boo!

  26. Israel says:

    We at least have the rest of this month an February of winter but unfortunately, my gut feeling is that it’ll be an early spring again, time is running out. So we either get snow soon or not get any snow for the rest of “winter.”

  27. If you live near Lexington, could you keep me posted on how much snow falls tomorrow? Hope to visit tomorrow night…

  28. Ryan says:

    Looks like the NWS disagrees with Chris’s call for snowfall
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/jkl/StormTotal/StormTotalSnow.png
    hmm…

  29. Todd says:

    This storm or so called storm is forecast to develop right on top of KY so I think a bust in either direction is possible?

  30. Chris Mercer says:

    Here are some updated stats for the past three winters (through January 24th, using Lexington data)
    2012-2013 Average Temp: 39.0 Snowfall 3.6
    2011-2012 Average Temp 39.0 Snowfall 1.1
    2010-2011 Average Temp 30.2 Snowfall 14.5

    Here is my take. This winter started off on the the extreme mild in December (all those days in the 60′s and 70′s). To be tied with last winter in the temp department and ahead in the snow department is quite remarkable at this point. Now, 2010-2011 was much better, of course!

    • Todd says:

      I think 2010-11 had most of the snow in December, atleast in Frankfort, I think I have a log on that winter and very little if any snow fell that year after January?

    • weather blog troll says:

      Thanks Chris Mercer.

      So we’ve tripled last year on snow fall!

      How does 2010-11 compare with the legendary snow years?

      • Chris Mercer says:

        For the record, here are the ten snowiest winter seasons (July-June) in Lexington history

        #1: 53.0 in 1916-1917
        #2 and #3: 42.1 in 1917-1918 and 1977-1978
        #4: 41.7 in 1950-1951
        #5: 40.7 in 1935-1936
        #6: 38.4 in 1939-1940
        #7: 37.0 in 1959-1960
        #8 and #9: 34.5 in 1942-1943 and 1967-1968
        #10: 34.1 in 1894-1895.

        So, as you can see, we haven’t had a Top 10 year since 1977-1978.

        In recent years (since 1978) these deserve an “honorable mention”
        27.8 2010-2011
        31.4 1995-1996
        31.7 1993-1994

        • Chris Mercer says:

          One thing that makes me hold out hope. Almost all that snow in 1959-1960 fell from February 13 to March 12. The snowdepth remained at an inch or great from February 13 to March 22. I would say we would be satisfied with a repeat, yes?

        • weather blog troll says:

          Wow. I would have thought that somewhere in that 93-96 range would have made it. Cool!

          I do recall a lot of talk over the years about 77-78. I was a little kid and it seems like we had a really warm day and then boom – storms and a blizzard?

          Thanks.

        • Mike says:

          2010 – 2011 is amazing. I my part of Madison County we haven’t that much snow since I have lived here (8 years) let alone in any 1 year!

          • Chris Mercer says:

            That is hard to believe. I am not even 50 miles as the “crow files” from you. And I can tell you, as a Pastor, I had to have the lot plowed, or ice chipped off the steps every Sunday morning of December! And on Christmas Eve/Day/the day after I had the largest snow on Christmas I have ever seen. I think Bubba’s fence has set up on a line from Richmond and points south.

  31. Seth says:

    It seems like this system might bring some freezing rain to the Lexington area. To think we were worried about it sliding to our south and missing us a day ago.

    • BubbaG says:

      Hence my point we do not want this to be a slow system and we REALLY needed that snow cover from the one that missed us yesterday.

  32. MarkLex says:

    So DUMB question?

    If a mainly “ice event” in TN, why is it a winter storm warning and not an ice storm warning?

    Oh, and good to hear from you MJ :)

    • Chris Mercer says:

      I think an ice storm warning, no matter where the warning is issued, must have over 1/4 inch of ice. The forecast for TN is like .1-.2 inches

  33. Ryan Hall says:

    This is prob what will happen -.-

    http://i48.tinypic.com/kag3l3.jpg

  34. Lincoln says:

    If anyone is interested I posted some thoughts to my blog, just click my name.

  35. Toes says:

    this is it folks global warming opps did i say that i mean climate change….cant say global warming anymore the big oil companys seen to that lol..to get any amount of snow anymore you need to be about 300-500 miles north of here…

  36. rolo says:

    BELIEVE!!! this storm going to develop right on top of us, MODELS cant handle a little ole storm like this. till it gets going none of us know

    ROLO sticks by his WSW criteria with 4-8 inch snow, bout 11 or so in morning they be rushing issue WSW

    • Mike says:

      Rolo, Buddy, I hope your right!

    • Micah says:

      Rolo,

      About what time should we start seeing the precip develop over KY?

    • Chris Mercer says:

      Rolo–you are the eternal optimist/pessimist depending on the situation!

    • BubbaG says:

      With the same chant tone as Rudy: Rolllllllloooo!

      Instead of a tackle flattening him like Rudy, it will be the warm air and fast moving weather system instead ;)

      I think ice has more of a shot of surprising us than snow and is why I want it out of here fast. Slower system would seem to equal more warm air, moisture and ice. If we had snow now, this could foster an environment for snow, but we do not.

      Rolo, you have the fact that the event has not happened as your ally :) Saver it, sir!

      • BubbaG says:

        Deep down, I hope Rolo is right :)

        • BubbaG says:

          I say “deep down” since the rest of my conscience says trend = no, but there is an inner (way inner) hope.

          • Juno99 says:

            does anyone remember the surprise snow storm of 1997 or 1998 i believe it was..called for a dusting and ended up with 22 inches? and snow as far west as St. Louis?

            • MarkLex says:

              That was feb 98, but it didn’t get nearly as far west as St. Louis and that was an awesome storm! Pure snow from start to finish. It snowed for like 4 days straight, the heaviest the first 24 hrs.

    • Momom says:

      Oh Rolo…I sure hope you are right!

    • Marsha says:

      Rolo please just stay with us now don’t you go leaving this blog or we will be very upset with you old buddy….

  37. Ready4Snow says:

    I can’t figure out how most people on this blog was thinking this was gonna be a big snow maker…Only 2 run’s of the Euro showed a possible 8 inch snow in Eastern Ky 4 days ago and then it came more in line with the GFS…So how does this become a bust when in reality it never was forecasted by any Met to be a big snow??????…Sure if you want to go by what the model’s we’re showing 5 days ago then i guess you could call it a bust..But we all should know better by now to take all model’s with a grain of salt…Especially out in la la land….OK rant over….Now lets enjoy our dusting of snow….

    • Mike S says:

      I call those far out models the dreaded ‘snow job’. It exaggerates quite a bit and wants us to believe it will happen that far out. And then…virga or something close to it.

  38. NotBillMeck says:

    This ROLO guy is usually a negative Nancy. What is up with that?

  39. MarkLex says:

    Does anyone find it odd that we have had such extremes in the spring/summer with tornadoes/floods, heat. But the winter has been anything BUT what I would call extreme.

  40. Chris Mercer says:

    My “boss” says to quit worrying about this one. Take it slow in the minimal snow/ice in you morning commute and by the time you head home, there won’t be anything left.

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