Good Thursday evening, gang. A quick hitting snow and ice event is on tap for late tonight into Friday. Much of the state is now under a Winter Weather Advisory…
My latest snowfall map is relatively unchanged from the first call. I will have a final call for snowfall coming later tonight.
Have a great evening and take care.
What time frame do you expect this snow to begin in the Frankfort/Lexington areas Chris? 4am? 6am? 8am?
Probably hard to figure when the moisture will saturate the air enough to start hitting the ground to know when it will really start.
Thanks BubbaG
Cant wait till we get this snow event going!
This winter has been one let down after another. Rain and freezing rain again for us Southern KY folks
Now mr bailey you just got Morgan co 1to 3 but that’s ok I take it just remember Chris how much we love what you do for us….
Wonder what percent of this will get virgatized?
based on trends your area LoL
for everyone on the underside of the river. us shpeshul folk will the ice.
*get ice!
Oh no, you left west ky out. Our weather people aren’t very reliable so I come to your site. 🙂
Hey Bubba–for once I’m in the 1 to 3 inch range with you! Remember, per Todd’s rule, anything more than 1 inch in EPIC! I’ve had one epic snow this winter–time to share the love with you! 🙂
On second glance, you are more solidly in the 1 to3 inch range that i am in Lawrenceburg. You must have done something to bust the dome!!!
The dome has a dry atmosphere on its side, so virga could be a common word tomorrow.
Please keep in mind the dome does not care about such petty snows. It works hard with its model minions in building up hopes of something bigger and then crushing all snow lovers in its wake 😉
Dry air, freezing rain, or both? What will the dome most likely do tomorrow for central kentucky Darth Bubba?
All depends on the speed and timing. Take CBs map and start reducing totals the faster it zips through.
Seems a slower system would be a catch 22, since more chance for warmer air and ice.
Lose lose situation. Boo!
May the spirit of Rolo shine through and give us a win! Yeeeehaaaaah!
Yes hopefully Han Rolo can find a way ram his billygoat into the Bubba Dome!
🙂
Pretty excited for a quick shot of snow, wohoo!!! 1-3..I don’t think we will get 3 in Lexington, but we have already had one over achiever.
Temp in Lawrenceburg is 20 with a dewpoint of -1. Another virga storm?
Since a fast system, at least half of the totals could be evaporated before anything falls.
Mets could be singing tomorrow:
Don’t blame it on the sunshine, don’t blame it on the moonlight, blame it on the Virga!
well i went from 2 – 4 inches down to 1 – 3 inches, hope we do get something out of this!!!!! Have family flying in to Huntington tom afternoon wonder if they will have any delays?
And as usual, the tropics of southern Ky will likely wind up with a bit of snow and a cold rain.
I would say there is always next week, but that is every week until probably spring.
Notice next week the 33 degree rule is in full force. Moisture will be around when temps are above 32 and then a teeny bit of snow at the end of the week. Boo!
Schools closing everywhere for tomorrow, especially in the ice zone. We will be happy and take what we get!!!! It’s so nice to know you’re off before bedtime!
As a teacher in Jefferson County, glad we’ll be in session. We have a week long winter break next month that could be used for make ups. I want that whole week off. Between the weak winters and the fact that city road crews have gotten really, really good at what they do, It has been years since we missed a day around here.
The ducks and geese are hoping for a warmup, the lake Behind the house is finally frozen over, I think most have flown off to find some open water, now a little snow on top that would look good??
Can someone explain to me how it can stay below freezing all day at my house, and I’m getting freezing rain and yet it’s 25 degrees outside. Does not make sense.
Basically, there is a layer of warm air in between the upper atmosphere and the surface, so turns to rain and then freezes when hits the ground.
Because up in the atmosphere It will be above freezing. Liquid falls from the clouds and freezes at the surface. It could be -20 at the surface but if its 33 or above in the atmosphere freezing rain is the result.
I wonder what the coldest freezing rain event ever recorded is, I have heard of it in the teens before but I doubt it has happened in the single numbers?
I’ve actually seen it around here at 18 degrees, but yeah, don’t if its ever been recorded in the single numbers anywhere.
I’ve seen freezing rain at 16 here in Louisville and 12 when I lived at Snowshoe, West Virginia.
Sleet happens because you have a warm layer and a cold layer above the surface. Basically it falls as frozen precip from a cloud. Hits the warm layer and melts and refreezes in the cold layer.
Warm air is coming over the top of the cold, so the prec falls as rain freezes on contact or falls as sleet if there is enough cold air.
1 inch or less….zzzzzzzzzz
I live in taylor county(the county in the center of Ky shaped like a heart), I really don’t know what to expect…Lol
Just read where northern Minnesota has snow ratio of 30 to 1 tonight with temps near 0 as it is falling, we get Virga at 30 degrees and yet it snows up their with dew points below 0??
OMG Todd I know! Bitter cold dry air up there, yet they don’t get virga. I mean, what is up with that????
Another thing – the other night, when everyone was talking about the halo around the moon and that is a sign of a big storm – well, so much for that theory!!
That was Rolo and the old school express 🙂
I need a like button BubbaG……u crack me up!
Rolo rocks!
Ice crystals in the Cirrus clouds, that typically move in ahead of a storm/rain….it’s a good sign….
That sounds like words from a progressive rock group song from Yes or Uriah Heep. Are you quoting 😉
They don’t have The Dome in Minnesota.
Just a quick thought…Generally by now we can at least see where the moisture is coming from and start now casting. There is nothing showing up on the Radar to even start tracking. Moisture starved is the truth. I quess we have to wait until Next WEEK or Next Month or Next Year….
Even if moisture starved, you should still see it on the radar if the precipitation is evaporating. I think the system is supposed to build up just west of Kentucky, so will be later tonight.
Quik hitter, I think this will over achieve in some area’s and underachieve in others, but this has to be a METS worse type of event to nail down?
CB needs to use the Force!
I just need enough snow, for snow cream!! (and yep I am dancing-and NOPE i will not share a pic-) I might need a job in law enforcement one day-lol!!
Winter storm warnings up in GA for snow and ice really weird that southern KY
is going to get freezing rain. I also thought the higher up in the atmosphere you went the colder it got that’s why why higher elevations usually get more snow correct or is that wrong.
Generally that is true and I suspect that the snow for Georgia will be in the mountains of northeast Georgia, some of which are over 4000 feet. But the thing is, you often get some pretty dramatic temperature inversions. When I lived at 4700 feet at Snowshoe, WV, we would often be 20 degrees warmer than in the valleys, almost always at night. This is especially true in the week after a big cold front has come through and during the summer when summit temps at night would be mid 50’s while the valley would be in upper 30’s. this would reverse during the day as the valley would warm up to upper 70’s and up top we would stay in low 60’s for highs.
the winter storm warning there is for Freezing Rain!
Going out on a limb here, but I think this system is going to overachieve. Time will tell, but I posted it for all to see. And as far as the Dome’s run, it too shall fall, To quote Master Snowda,”Snow or no snow, there is no virga.”
Or maybe that’s just wishful thinking….
So, if the new NAM shows more moisture for Southern KY as Chris’s latest tweet says, does that mean the moisture if “beefed up” a little a little bit for Central and Northern KY too?? Anybody know?
Good question
I want to know if there is more hope for us in the Lawrenceburg/Frankfort area! I live in Lawrenceburg but teach in Frankfort.
I live in Frankfort and think this is a school district nightmare, tough call for school officials in the morning?
Probably means more rain for other territories.lol
My gut says 1in or less for Lexington, but maybe I am wrong…
There is ring around the moon tonight.
I’m gonna miss Rolo.
He should start posting as “Artist Formally Known as Rolo” 🙂
Or AFKRolo to keep it short.
Looks like southern Kentucky might get that surprise mentioned earlier if the new NAM pans out. CB just tweeted.
Half inch of ice possible, so let us hope the NAM is too slow with the system!
Half inch of ice is very dangerous, but on the flip side of that some folks could get 5 inches of snow!
Yep. If CB believes in the NAM, he will update his maps. IF.
While the new NAM run does show an increase in precipitation amounts across the south, it should be noted that the NAM has been overdoing precipitation amounts this winter. Just something to keep in mind. If the NAM does end up verifying with its precipitation amounts, there could be a lot of ice down state (south of the Cumberland Pky).
That is much better news than it is usually underdoing totals 😉 🙂
Especially the 0Z runs here of late
Here’s a good map from the NWS saying where freezing rain, sleet and snow is gonna be. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lmk
Seems about right if fast and the air needs to evaporate part of the system just to fall. If the current NAM is right, it would imply a slower system and should mean more snow as well.
Folks to the south do not want the NAM to be correct.
“Next week” is severe wx and tornado threat, not snow. Soooo, we’ll probably get a blizzard! I’m about done with yet another disappointing “winter”.
Looks like once again, unless something drastically changes, Keavy, London, Corbin, Barboursville will again miss the snow. As alot of people has mentioned already, this will just add on top of what they got after Christmas. That means my neck of the woods will vet 0″ AGAIN! So far this winter season, Keavy has received just enough snow to dust the windshield which was so lightly done, I could still see inside the car. Well all you people crying because this snow isn’t as big as 1st thought of stop & think of us that has had no snow on the ground yet. ZELCH! NODDA! NOTHING! As you go on your way tomorrow with 1-3″ predicted…we get ICE AGAIN! Please…quit crying and think about those of us that see’s no snow and been getting the ice!
Love ya ll but this whining over small amounts makes me sick at my stomach knowing I am getting ICE yet once again. I’d be happy for 1″ of snow. Wish for once you all get the ice and we down here could get vthe snow. Then you can cry!
Sorry..was venting. I wish NO ONE get ICE! Maybe you all get sunny skies while we down here finally get hammered with SNOW and not ice.
Again, I apologize.
Usually the south gets the rain and us poor middle folks get the ice 😉 🙁
If only the atmosphere would chill out.
Winter X Games started today on ESPN. This is about as close to snow deprivation therapy as you can get. I recommend it for what it’s worth.
ROLO Phone Home…
Flying on a billy goat across a full moon horizon 🙂
You have to have seen ET to get this stuff.
LOL 🙂
LOL-you are SO bad!
I mean it in a good way. Me heart Rolo.
Rolo is a good one!! You are SO funny-Bubba!!
The NAM looked about the same snowfall wise for the rest of us. 1-3 and thats about it. Starting to wonder if this will be a mix situation and those numbers may be too high lol.
Warm air. Boo!
The NAM has a tendency to over perform with the precipitation. The only time I agree with the model is when the precipitation is flowing north to south.
<~~~~ SNOW STARVED AND DEPRIVED. Heading to the sunny shore of FUNNY FARM as I have once again been thrown down with a heavy force named ice. Maybe when tornado season begins, I will be be better and watch the storm chasers. Until then…off to the FUNNY FARM (while making googly eyes and funny noises with my mouth as they strap me down with something named ICE! Not again).
Watch the x games. I’m telling you it helps. 🙂
So what happened to rolo? He was one of my favorites on here!!! 🙁
He made a bet with himself no less LoL that if we did not get 4-8 inches he would not be on for 2 yrs
Me and Rolo are going to be roomies at the Funny Farm. I’l tell him Hi for ya. Bahahahahaha
He’s writing checks he can’t cash.
Bright side note, I’ll bet perfect north & Paoli in southern Indiana has great MAN made base, I’m thinking might be time to go vent snow frustration out with modern tech snow sledding/tubing and hope for real stuff in February 🙂
Have you ever tried to ski on man made snow? If your a beginner it totally sucks. It is real hard to rut the skies. It is like driving on sleet. The good news is that if you can ski on that hockey ring at Paoli you can ski almost anywhere.
Wipe out! Seen some doozies at PN. LOL ones and “Call a doctor!” ones.
I agree, if you can ski anywhere in the east you are automatically a better skier than the spoiled brats out west.
I’m a inner tuber, General Butler ski trip many years ago mixed with bourbon told me do not stand up and try to glide down a steep hill on ice or snow, I still have scares!
Well just heard from a friend that school was just called off in Pike County for tommorow they said they got a prerecorded call from the Board.
School is also cancelled in Estill county tomorrow, but it doesn’t look like we will get much..if any snow.
Could this turn into an all snow event? It’s 24 degrees outside.
The surface temperature was never the problem. What is going to cause the freezing rain is above freezing temperatures in the atmosphere that causes the snow to melt and freeze on contact with the below freezing surface.
I guess one of the interesting things I will be tracking this evening with interest are the tendancies with the dew point and relative humidity. Right now, central KY reporting locations are running in the 32-43% range whith the relative humidities. Of course, with 9 hours or so before things get going…will be looking to see these climb. Question is…how much? The moisture will be there aloft…but low level moisture values (humidity levels) will ultimately determine precip totals.
Well let’s hope our friend’s to the south stay safe….A little Snow then topped off with possible half inch freezing rain would be very bad….
I will be fine thanks for thinking of me 😉 People just need to try to be prepared and pay attention
Well be fine here. Got my INSTA BULBS ready and set to go. LOL
one of the greatest POST in the history of ther BLOG I just took 45 minutes composing and it aint showing up, UNREAL.
in short it was my so long letter, JUST IN CASE its weas needed.
seriously it was a thing of beauty, so if this post dont go thru I think im blocked.lol
I see ya. See ya at the FUNNY FARM BUDDY HAHAHAHGAGHA I am on my way
this blog wouldnt be the same without rolo!!!!!!
Rolo, that would be selfish since a lot of folks love your posts. If anyone should be exiled, it should be the folks that sent CB snow dances 😉
Amen!!! annoying lol
I just bne honest, I be like the KEN MELLONS song,
I WENT CRAZY for awhile after 2 days without u all. but I try, but I did insert I step away till a REAL SNOWSTORM finally came,
i been talking bout WINTERS OF my childhood, Brian Collins,Brad James, Frank Faulkner and watching it snow with my DEAD DADDY, and it doesnt show up on the blog. im kinda sad right now.
Don’t be sad, Rolo!
You can’t leave we won’t allow it rolo….
00Z GFS looks too warm. I’m thinking NAM is more realistic.
WBIR and WATE Knoxville mets reporting a mostly snow event to the north of the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. This would certainly be good news for Middlesboro/Bell and other southern counties. Crossing fingers for little to no ice…. Looking forward to how this plays out.
Chris down played this event even more tonight at 11, saying most places maybe an inch and a little more to the east, this is looking more like a deck duster for Frankfort area!
Yet his tweets imply the opposite…..
yep GFS has pretty much no snow.
I don’t know if you’ll read this but I’m new to the blog and Kentucky and I hear just about EVERYONE talk about rolo. So its u?
Anyone see Chris’s latest tweet a few moments ago? Said short range models are showing a lot of moisture now.
Chris twit, thing are looking more moist, are you trying to keep my hopes up Chris, I was thinking about sleep until I heard that?
Yet he apparently downplayed the event on TV. So confused, but not expecting much snow here in Richmond. Ice or virga might be the only things on the menu.
Whatever it be, it be.
This system is starting to show it’s face on satellite. To me…this looks like it might have a little extra umphhh out of the gate than I expected. I look forward to watching this over next few hours with interest to see if that’s true…it’s not impossible that north and south systems phase prior to Kentucky…Maybe…just maybe so…
Satellite: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-ir4.html
Water Vapor Satellite: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html
If so…this system would be more moist. More forcing and lift…
The GFS run was awful for Lou. Oh well we will get them next week.lol
GFS run at 00Z appears to be too warm. It also may be too dry…
Don’t you mean next year!
Chris saying more moisture for many? Who and where MANY is located is the big question?
The model showed a higher amount of precipitation (water equivalent)…pretty much state wide…
National Doppler Radar: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
I work underground right on the KY/VA border and we still have snow on the ground from the previous event. Hoping we do not get a bad ice event. It makes it miserable for everybody. Gues if it comes a good one I will be taking the ATV to work. Brrr.
In the Grayson area the snow is light, but starting to dust the ground.