Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for dropping by the blog. It is looking very likely today into tonight will feature severe storms across much of the state. The questions is… can we bookend the day with rounds of storms? That possibility is looking more and more likely as of this writing and since I will likely have a few more updates today… I will keep it rather simple.
A complex of thunderstorms (MCS) will continue to roll southeastward toward the region very early this morning. Severe Thunderstorm Watches and Warnings have been out to our northwest overnight. How long can this thing keep going before it begins to fall apart? I would imagine it will threaten the western and northern areas around daybreak… likely in weakened fashion. Still… I would not be surprised to see it produce some severe weather before diminishing by mid morning or so.
Track the progress of this complex of storms here…
You can also get the latest short term updates, including watches, from the Storm Prediction Center here…
Whatever happens with the morning storms… the atmosphere will be primed for another complex of thunderstorms to develop to our northwest late this afternoon and evening. This would then roll our way bringing the threat for more severe weather. Damaging winds, large hail and an isolated tornado would be possible. Here is the latest from the SPC on the overall afternoon and evening threat…
I would not be surprised to see a part of that upgraded to a moderate risk area and for the whole slight risk to be pushed farther south with time.
Again… I will have more updates as needed today so be sure to check back. You can also get rapid fire updates from me through Twitter… follow me @Kentuckyweather . These updates will aslo be shown in the right hand corner of this blog.
Have a great Wednesday and take care.
What’s the weekend looking like?
Thanks, Chris. that line looks kindof nasty, for sure! Let’s hope things don’t get too severe! We could use a little rain here now, though.
I am kindof like MikeM…looking for weekend forecast. Saturday is my anniversary, and we are hoping to take the day and go on a picnic. but not if it’s going to be stormy and rainy…
Everyone keep a heads up, and stay tuned to Chirs today! Be safe, all, and have a GREAT day!
i completely agree with what chris predicted with the slight and moderate risk. i’m about ready to update my site. just click on my name to get there.
and by the way, has anyone notice the line beginning to reform?
No, all I see is a rapidly dying squall line that is now as of 10:30 reduced to almost nothing on radar. However, the visible sat. channel shows clearing in southern IN now, and with the easily distinguishable outflow boundaries nearby, the stage is now set for storms to blow up again by late this afternoon. IF we are lucky, those storms might possibly track across the OH river and affect us.
i think an MCS is going to form a derecho and that will track into here tonight. you saw what chris said, he expects more severe weather for us.
i’m expecting an MCS to forma derecho and then track into us. you saw what chris thinks. severe weather is likely.
Tornado, you were exactly right. The line dies down, but exploded just east of Frankfort again. I thought we had no chance of rain in Georgetown, then heard raindrops and cracks of lightning. It’s amazing how quickly the line popped up again.
There is a single storm left, and it’s only covering that small area between Versailles/G-town/Lexington. I wouldn’t call that a “line”. The rest of the state is basking in sunshine. Keep an eye on the area near the OH River this afternoon…could get interesting in just a few more hours.
Thanks, tornadolarkin and Wxman, for your insights. It is going to be interesting a little later, as storms form or reform, or whatever!
Appreciate your thoughts, guys!
Coffeelady- Thanks!!!!
Man, the clearing is looking GREAT!!!!!!!!!! We should be in the clearing skies within the next 1 to 2 hours.
also, according to the GOES skew t’s, bowling green, which has the clearing has a CAPE of 3925 J/kg!!!!!!!!!
One tiny storm in the whole state right now, and it’s over my house in Jessamine County. Started raining so hard that I could hear it in the basement. Came upstairs to find the gutters overflowing. Wow, small but mighty.
The 12Z soundings forecast 2700 CAPE in Nashville and around 2600 for Wilmington today. That’s still plenty. The interesting thing is the freezing level which is at 12,000 ft. or so. LARGE hail would seem possible with any of the storms that blow up. The big fly in the ointment is that both soundings show multiple inversions, the big one around 800mb. That could really slow things down.
the inversion is bad, but the 1 thing that has proven that wrong is the rapid explosion we got earlier this morning. that is an evident sign, at least to me, that no cap will be with us today!!!!!
Well, it doesn’t look like there’s much of a cap in western Kentucky at least. Storms there have blowed up there really quickly, just in the past few minutes. (Paducah to Owensboro)
Yes. EXPLOSIVE development going on in western KY. It’s a thing of beauty. I bet we start seeing hail reports coming in very soon.