Good Sunday to one and all. Our weekend weather continues to be nothing short of awesome and that’s made your friendly weatherdude popular of late. (First time for everything! :)) We have a couple more days of the nice stuff before we see things take a turn toward the chilly and then flat out cold.
Highs today will range from the mid and upper 60s in the north and east to the 70s in the west. Those 70s will take control of the state on Monday on a strong southwesterly wind. That wind will eventually blow in a line of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. That’s when a strong cold front swings in from the west…
Winds will be very gusty as this font passes through and colder air follows that up for Wednesday. Highs in the 50s look good for many.
The Halloween weekend cold blast is still on schedule. Can this bring the first flakes of the season our way? That remains a possibility, but I won’t be able to say with any certainty for a few more days. Let me remind you how computer models tend to react with winter type systems. They will often latch on to something in the 7-10 period, then lose it a bit in the 4-7 day window, then find it again within 3 or 4 days.
The European Model continues to be the strongest of the models with the cold and potential wintry weather in the eastern part of the country…
The latest run from the GFS is a bit farther north and east with that system, but it still brings the cold…
As I said, we are in that 4-7 day window of model changes, so we need to let the dust settle before settling in on any one solution.
I will update things this evening so check back.
Make it a great Saturday and take care.
One of the drivers for the cold Winter forecast has been the persistence of warmer than normal water in the Gulf of Alaska, and a negative PDO. Recent observations in the Gulf of Alaska indicate that the warm water has dissipated, and the PDO is now positive. Do you feel that these changes are anomalous, and what are your thoughts on how this will affect the long-term Winter forecast?
Thanks for the details Chris.As for being popular I think you have quiet a few diehard fans regardless of your forecast…Even with tornadoes we are all thankful to have our devoted weather person.
I check other places but this is my go to place for everything weather that is Ky related.
The national forecasts never go into detail for our areas.I especially get annoyed with the forecasters that will discuss Tennessee for example then jump to Ohio or Pa,etc like Ky isn’t even on the map.I will be sitting there like “Well what about us?” [:^(
I am going to enjoy this nice weather while it lasts.Once its gone it will likely be awhile before it returns.Not really looking forward to possibly another 6 months of winter but doing the best I can to get ready just in case.
The layouts for days ahead are greatly appreciated since I can easily be confined quickly with the right weather coming.
Everyone enjoy this beautiful next couple of days.
I especially appreciate the long range possibilities you bring to your blog Chris. I’ve been preparing warmer camo attire for the deer stand next month thanks to your forecasts. And while I am not a winter weather fan, I do enjoy coming here to read all about it prior to the actual events. Thanks!
Thanks Chris. Not sure how to take this forecast. I ama winter weather fan but I just ain’t ready for it yet! Guess that is going to be a moot point from the looks of it. Anyway you and Mother Nature have given us two days to get the garage painting finished so we are going to try to do just that! Love knowing how to plan projects because we read you daily.
Got furnace ready for that first real cold snap, its only a matter of time and will feel the chill!