Good Tuesday, everyone. Big time weather changes are blowing into the bluegrass state as a strong cold front pushes in. Today’s front will bring showers and storms and much cooler air. The big daddy arrives on Halloween and may bring the first taste of winter to parts of the bluegrass state. Yep… I said winter!
First things first and that’s the front on top of us today. A line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep eastward through the afternoon and evening. Winds are going to howl and some strong wind gusts will be possible with the line of storms. There is even a small risk for a few strong storms and that’s something I will keep a close eye on.
Track today’s action…
Chillier air comes in behind this front for Wednesday and Thursday with highs mainly in the 50s. Lows by Thursday morning hit the 30s.
That brings us to Halloween and the possibility of some snow and very cold air. As expected, the models are going back toward the deeper solution they were originally showing several days ago. The European Model is now fully phasing two disturbances right on top of our region by Halloween night…
That forms one potent upper level system that would lead to very cold weather with snows flying across central and eastern Kentucky…
That’s a pretty wild setup to see and the European Model does put down some accumulation…
That is not my forecast, but is what this run of the European Model is showing. That would likely be the extreme case scenario.
The GFS is not as strong with the upper level system, but is strongly trending in that direction…
Based on that path, the GFS swipes the region with some rain and snow showers…
The cold air behind this system is impressive. Temps will drop 10-20 degrees in just a few hours as the front passes. Most areas will drop into the 30s during Halloween evening then settle into the 20s by Saturday morning…
The core of the cold continues to shift a little farther west with each model run. You think those numbers are cold? How about wind chill numbers in the teens to start Saturday…
That’s a heck of a way to say hello to November! Brrrrrrr!
The cold hangs tough into Sunday morning with readings back into the 20s…
I will have more updates later today. Have a good one and take care.
Most of central and eastern parts of Kentucky remain within a Marginal Risk of severe weather today. However, southeastern Ohio has been raised from a Marginal to a Slight Risk, very close to northeastern KY. Strong damaging winds are forecast to be the threat with the highest chances. Lower chances of large hail and even lower for an isolated twister or two.
BTW, the SPC just revised their Categorical Outlook by adding two new threat levels for severe wx; now there are:
1: Marginal
2: Slight
3: Enhanced
4: Moderate
5: High
(the two new threat levels are in bold).
If the flakes do fly, the ground has been way too warm to support accumulation except for perhaps a very brief time…but it is October and it’s still impressive that there is the potential for snow to even be in the forecast.
Lets see this thing squeeze that snow out. May not stick any or at least long but would help with cooling the warm ground. Maybe that will help the next one stick better. Either way as always love your dedication and excellent work Chris.