Good Monday, everyone. We’re starting out the day with crashing temperatures, a touch of light snow and the potential for black ice to form. That may lead to some slick travel across parts of central and eastern Kentucky. This isn’t a huge deal, but it could be enough to cause some issues.
Also, the weekend continues to get my attention and the models are doing what I said they would… find a storm… lose a storm… then find it again. The latest runs found it again and I will show you that in a bit.
The light snow today will mainly impact central and eastern Kentucky. Some pockets of LIGHT accumulations may show up… especially in the east. Another light snow maker will then roll in from the northwest tonight into Tuesday morning.
The GFS snow totals through Tuesday…
That’s not terribly impressive, but it would just take a little bit to cause travel problems.
Wednesday looks good and then another clipper moves in late Thursday into Friday. That still looks likes some rain and snow with that.
Our weekend potential is most certainly there, it’s just a matter of how much energy comes out of the southwest and merges with a system diving in from the northwest. The latest runs are going back to our bigger storm idea. The European Model is all in on the storm…
The Canadian Model shows a healthy storm coming together…
The GFS is almost back to showing a biggie…
The back and forth model runs should continue for a few more days before they lock in on whatever is going to happen.
I have the blog all set for your early day tracking needs…
Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington
US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort
US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort
US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I-64 MP 97
Winchester
Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown
Western Ky Parkway/I-65 Elizabethtown
I-65 MP 32
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green
Updates come later today. Take care.
Wow it’s hard to Believe that it’s VERY foggy here in Lexington ATM, and it’s breezy? From what I’ve heard, it’s rare to get dense fog with breezy/windy conditions. Odd…
ECMWF is also sending an arctic front behind the storm with single digits in places with no snow and below zero temps in places that do get snow. Here’s the current 00z run south of us. http://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8QrTHgIQAAMtO_.jpg
This is what the model shows, just for entertainment purposes.
Fog? Where in Lex?
It was around 3am this morning.
You notice how for the past 3 days or so, there’s been almost no question that this blizzard is going to happen in the northeast. While, with most of our winter storm forecasts, you have be almost be the DAY OF it happening to know whether or not it’s going to materialize. LOL!
This would be so cool to see but the aftermath (ugh) no thanks!
That’s why its called fencetucky, right in the middle of the cutoff, and most of the time rain wins. I would hate to be a forecaster for winter weather here. Pretty much have to nowcast. Models can’t even get Temps right here.
Well ti be fair I just seen on the news they are lowering toals for nyc, saying we might be able to get 12-16 inches.
They are? I haven’t heard that ……I guess I’ll check an update
That’s what the weatherman on good morning america said. So I took her word for it, lol
Another note, she said if nyc gets 16 inches it will break into the top ten in snow events. Given the reputation of nor eastrers I would heave figured a 16 inch snow would have happened more than ten times.
u make a great point …how can the models be so off around here but look at that storm and models have been showing it for days ….no model flipping …no big snowstorm that ends up rain…that is odd
Dusting of snow in Berea, which is interesting because the radar return would have you believe it was rain falling recently.
The roads look a lot more “shiny” than you want to see on a morning like this one.
Everyone be careful out there this morning.
Dusting upgraded to about 1/4″.
Despite that, our cat decided it was fine with going out hunting before sunrise.
It looks like a Siberian tiger out there with the snow cover.
Still 39 in Carrie this morning.
Snowing now and temps have dropped from 39 to 31 since 6am.
Thanks Chris Bailey. Whether or not the models pan out , I always appreciate you updating us on the potential . I would always rather know what could have been instead of being caught by surprise !
The early morning run of the GFS looks better organized..
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_159_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
Could be over running moisture with our favorite precip..Ice…Unlike NYC guess we won’t know until 8 hrs beforehand..
Thanks Chris.
Roads very slick in spots-Lexington.
Everything is covered here in Greenup and snow is coming down hard
CB buddy, I can tell you seem to be a little “gun” shy now due to the model misses overall. There was a time you would be all over the weekend system now as far as discussion, but understandably more subdued.
Hopefully the models can get er’ done a few times to gain your confidence in them 🙂
No reason to get excited about a mostly rain event since that is what the models are currently showing. 😉
I was sandbagging a little on the system this past Friday. I may or may not be doing the same with this weekend.;)
No sandbagging allowed on the blog!!!
Now that is what I like to hear, CB!
Snow has moved on, but looks like something is on it’s way from the Illinois area. Probably will disappear before our very eyes!
We do have a slight chance of snow tonight. Hope it holds together.
Picked up a little dusting this morning in knott co. Couple more and we will be at an inch for the year
We actually may have a chance with the Super Bowl system. Big Nor’Easter is going to knock down the NAO some towards neutral or slightly negative which bodes well for the track of the storm. First time all winter we have seen the NAO trend in our favor. Should definitely be one to watch!
CB is waiting until he sees the potential whites of it’s snow eyes 😉
Smart.
Almost slipped multiple times this morning. The untreated road I live by is completely covered in black ice!!!!! You can just slide across along the street and sidewalk like an ice rink! (In Lex) The terrible thing is you can’t see the ice at all whatsoever.
The system in Illinois stretching up to Wisconsin is very interesting. IF it keeps its current track and doesn’t dissipate before it gets here, we may be looking at a halfway decent snowfall by tomorrow morning.
Latest run of GFS is still boring…This is my take on things and probably wrong but Looks like the northern energy splits and sends a piece to Wisconsin creating a low over the great lakes thus our temperature rises…Northern energy needs to dig south..GFS may be right but IMO it still shows what a crappy model the new and improved GFS is..Euro and Nam showing tons of snow for NYC but GFS not showing near as much..Be interesting to see how it performs against other models..First true test..All hail the King..