Good evening, gang. Temperatures are dropping like a boulder this evening and may reach historic levels tonight and Friday morning. -20 or lower temps will be a good possibility for some. It’s from this point that we then totally focus on a winter storm set to impact the region later in the day and through the weekend.
A WINTER STORM WATCH is out for most of Kentucky…
Snow, sleet and freezing rain is likely for our region. Figuring out who gets what of each will be the difficult part. Here’s a preliminary look…
Again, that’s the early call and a lot can change. This system is loaded with moisture and will put down a TON of precipitation. This is likely to become a very high impact event that can cause even more issues than the early week storm.
We will watch to see how the evening and overnight computer models look before getting more specific. The models are trending colder and colder with each run and that’s what they should be doing. There is just way too much snow on the ground and arctic air already in place for this to turn out the way the models were showing over the past few day.
My worry factor is very high.
A full update comes your way on WKYT-TV tonight at 11
Take care
No “Take Care” again?
Oh wait! Nevermind lol. Didnt see that
Thanks Chris. Looks like all snow for extreme northern Kentucky, but not much of it.
very very interesting…looking forward to the late night model runs….should clear it up some
Try not to worry. 🙂
Well I feel very “uneasy” about this. Better go to the store after hubby gets back from dialysis Friday. Thank you Chris, will check back often.
Seen your 7 day forecast . I reckon we won’t be seein the shorty shorts anytime soon. I guess the old lady’s gonna be in the sweatpants till April. I ain’t liking the looks of the weekend storm.
We will have to wait and see the 00z runs tonight to confirm a colder scenario is shaping out to what it looks to be. This storm has ugly written all over it for the worst hit. WSWarning out for northern Georgia and ATL is in a WWA. It seems like there is a pre-wave (if that’s what you want to call it,) that will go south of us bringing frozen precip and even 1-3″ of snow to Georgia possibly. This is a VERY complicated storm and is one that will likely be nowcasted because of the complexity.
Any idea of the timing for Central Kentucky??
Light snow as early as tomorrow evening. Main show is all day Saturday.
What is the European model saying?
Rain
“My worry factor is very high.” As someone on Twitter mentioned, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen CB say that.
I think that was me.
He didn’t even mention the word “Rain” maybe he is thinking that the snow pack and cold air already in place is not going to warm up enough to turn it into rain and if that is the case an ice event here in Somerset will definitely be the worse case scenario!
Really curious if the lines of rain/ice/mix/snow change.. How they will change… More ice to North vs more snow to South?? We have a local met in BG predicting a high of 51 on Saturday at 6 pm. That is just pure craziness considering we are at 3 right now and dropping like a rock!!
Our mets in bg are good with severe weather… Winter weather… Not so much. Its a bit frustrating.
so the all white on the map is for all snow i take it ?
I doubt anybody sees all anything.
Is Chris’ s worry factor because of the difficulty of the forecast or what he thinks is actually going to happen?
He worries that someone WILL get nasty ice. Just is not sure where that will set up.
This weekend is really starting to worry me. We received 18 inches here in Allen, Ky and it took until today to get my car out out of my driveway and that was shoveling snow for hours during the last 3 days. There are mountains of snow still in every parking lot and on the sides of the road and we are no were near ready to handle all the moisture that is coming this weekend no matter what form it may fall. Rain will equal wide spread flooding here in the mountains of Eastern Ky, Heavy Wet snow or Ice will cause lots of power outages here. I am afraid this is going to be a disaster.
Like….
White is all snow. Only advisory level snows. The main player to watch on map above is the pink area. With lots of moisture with this system could go to an ice storm warning for the parkways south. Ohio River counties looking good at the moment. No mention of rain, only freezing rain. Hope the models keep trending colder. If we can get all of Ky in the snow it will conclude an epic week in Kentucky weather history.
I hope this means that the precipitation is all frozen in the Ashland /Huntington area please no rain on all this snow, don’t want flooding.
I love snow, and I’m happy that we finally got snow. However, I’m with Chris…I’m worried about this ice event. Now I’m feeling guilty about liking the snow. 🙁
“This is likely to become a very high impact event that can cause even more issues than the early week storm.”
No offense, but I want you to be dead wrong about that prediction.
I do too.
Brian Goode on Wave3 just said “this storm has serious bust potential, and it has potential for surprises”
he has to cover all his bases I suppose. That was frustrating to watch as I know he may be the only source of weather news for a significant amount of people.
He also mentioned, with the new data rolling in, some places could see as much snow as Monday.
This is the first time I’ve heard a Louisville MET come out and say the potential is there for a high level snowfall.
If Mr. Bailey is worried, then I am VERY worried!
Ditto!
Mr. Bailey, is your worry factor for snow, an ice event or flooding?
I’m not sure if I reading your post right is why I’m curious.
Either is bad juju
Is this going to end up being strictly a nowcast event for the precipitation type? Mets still all over the place. What a headache for them? Thanks Chris, as usual. We appreciate you so much in getting us prepared.
Thanks for the update Chris. Hopefully winter storm keeps trending south and we get all snow and NO ice here in southeastern Ky. That’s the area that will probably get hit with ice. No electricity is Not fun. Lets pray for Snow and no ice!!!!! I agree that we have too much snow for rain.
Rodger says it will all be very interesting, to say the least. Chris has doubted the warm models and with good reason as the snowpack and cold are brutal and can affect this event.
If the GFS and Euro go cold tonight, look out! Two crippling events in one week would be simply incredible for our region.
Rodger in Dodger!
When does the EURO,GFS model run next at what time?
10:30 PM for GFS, 1:30 A.M. for Euro.
The NAM at 9:30.
Thank You
if we get the ice storm there will be alot of power outages right
Also, if it is an ice storm for some of the state and the temps are supposed to bottom out again… It scares me to even want to think about it.
the storm not going cold enough for all snow ICEMANCOMETH so get ready. so no model unless goes warmer goingt keep us from SEVERE ICING from I 64 SOUTH
Oh no I will take more snow instead of the ugly ice word. I don’t want to flood either.I have a feeling it will be alot of ice here.
You and me both Crystal!
The snow would be heavy, wet snow so I would say there would be power issues with either precip type. Bad times!
It is a dreaded term but I think this will probably be a NOWCAST.
This reminds me a little of the 2004 storm in Louisville where we had snow and sleet. South of here I believe had all types and north of here got hammered with snow.
The trend has always been for warmer air to win out. But hey the trend has never had 10 inches of snow on the ground very often either.
Locals in the Huntington tv area still on board the warm rain train 40 degree or higher temps this weekend. I hope Chris is right with the colder temps, these guys here just read exactly what NWS sends them anyway
I’m with you, Jimbo. I miss having Chris in our area…still look him up because he nails our forecast better and earlier than the local guys. Although not sure I’m hoping he is right this time…I love winter weather, but this one has disaster written all over it if he is right.
Thanks Chris. Not liking the “I’m worried” line but that just proves why you are the best. If this system is as moisture laden as you are thinking it will be, I vote for snow, even with what we have on the ground is prefer that to any type of ice, for anyone. With Ga in a WAW for some snow and ice, that is pretty scary. You think we’ve had issues, those folks are reLly not used to any kind of weAther like this. Praying for snow, instead of ice or a rain event of too much rain on top of the snow pack. That has trouble written all over it! As Chris did, time will tell. We will know likely by morning more KC whT to expect. Stay safe and wArm tonight all, and remember to keep the pets inside as well.
I’ve read Chris’s blog for years and rarely comment. Only other time I can recall him saying he’s worried was the tornado outbreak of March 2012. Not saying it hasn’t happened other times, but that’s the only other time I recall. Jarred me then, jars me now.
You are right!! I remember that day all too well!! Mr. Bailey sure saved my family that day! I don’t trust ANYONE else when it comes to weather!
Very interesting!!! Hope it’s all snow, no ice or rain. Keep us updated Chris!!! We love ya!!!!
In my area it was 3 degrees warmer than what was forcast. Even though that was 9 degrees I think the forecast was for 6 as the high. 3 degrees is a big deal when we are up in the 32 degrees range. Also will see if it really gets as cold tonight as what was forcast to. If it does not could be a sign that we will trend warmer.
Chris please tell us what your worry factor is
could this be a repete of 2009 ice storm
Exactly my thoughts…I’m hoping 2″ of moisture is liquid not ice
Or worse!
It could turn into all rain with minor flooding.
We have a triple whammy… but I hope its snow or rain, the trees will be tender about right now with 12″+ snowpack.
true that we do not need to lose power
I really, really like Chris. I live in southern Indiana, right across the Ohio River from Louisville. But, I always follow his blog and forecasts. I trust him more than any of the others, even in our local Louisville area. Be safe (and warm), everyone. And…thanks Chris for all you do!!
Nam looking ugly
Link? Where do I find this to be able to check on my own so I can learn?
Less snow…More ice looking too me.
Did yall see the last tweet?
The latest NAM on freezing rain is putting it in eastern Tennessee
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_84HR.gif
What about snow?
What about sleet or snow?
believe that was earlier run
Can we see the NAM?!
18z NAM
http://www.wxforecaster.com/NAM_18Z_surface.htm#
can someone post the 930 NAM run please?
New Nam moves most of the snow north of I-64 and up to Cincy. It’s a much bigger storm than the previous run. Is it correct? Unknown. It’s showing substantial snow across southern Ohio and the most northern part of Ky. If this materializes, temps will be in the 50’s across southern Ky at some point.
What’s northeastern ky looking like
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060
The above website is the easiest to visualize. NWS actually has the model info.
Louisville??
Bring it on for Cincinnati for 1 Foot of Snow!!!!
Yeah baby! I’ll take a foot of snow over an inch of ice any day!
Then bring on spring!
That looked like a big shift westward to me..
Looked to me like a northern piece of energy took precedent over the southern piece.
Two things
1. What’s up with the Madison County Mesonet site? -19 last night and -16 at 9:30 tonight!
2. I have a 2 pm flight from LEX on Saturday (off to San Francisco for work stuff…) and I live in Richmond. So? Should I even start looking for my suitcase?
You should know soon enough. I have a feeling you won’t need it.
I know, right! When looking at the mesonet across KY, some of those rural areas drop like 6 degrees per hour, while other places just drop 1 or 2 degrees per hour or say the leveled off for a couple of hours before dropping more. WTH?
Valleys and ridgetops it happens here all the time. So places are just prone to cooling quicker
Yeah, it confuses me too. I live in northern Fayette County (outside of the urban part of the city) on property that backs up to North Elkhorn Creek (so in somewhat of a valley). Two nights ago, the temp here bottomed out at -12 (about 12 degrees below Lexington mesonet and airport sites), but this morning it only fell to -9 (about 1-2 degrees below mesonet & airport). Tonight, I’m already down to -16, while Lex. mesonet is currently at -1. I don’t get it. It must have something to do with wind speed and how clear the sky is above your exact location. Humidity too?
Mets in Hunt/Ashland at 11 pm still sticking with rain and mid 40’s this weekend they haven’t wavered in over 24 hours. Are they not looking at the same models? And going on our past trend this Winter?
I will be very shocked to see 50 degrees and all this. I just can’t see it getting that warm this weekend. I am worried about the ice.
No disrespect, but I do not even think the mets will get this one right until it happens, yet alone us. Good luck on pegging this one.
CB was just on and he essentially said he does not know what will happen right now other than a good chance of all the above. I am paraphrasing but think that is a fair summary.
It might not be until this time tomorrow night before a decent estimate is made.
Truth
I saw Chris’ recent tweet that NAM is showing significant ice south,2″-4″ band of sleet and up to a foot of snow to the north. Uggg
But he is not keen right now on any of the models since he knows this is uncharted model territory. They are wrong with more typical events, yet alone this relatively new weather scenario.
The only difference on the 00z NAM is it throws more moisture into the colder air to the north. The temp profiles are not much different. For Louisville this is going to be a forecasting nightmare. The NAM actually takes 850’s above freezing then brings it back to freezing with the heavier precip. Surface temps rise just slightly above freezing. This could be snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain for Louisville, with a constant shift back and forth between precip types. What a forecasting nightmare this is going to be!
Louisville and north into Clark and Floyd counties snow? What to expect? Ugh.
Oh… my… I can’t believe that tonight’s data is making forecasts even WORSE! Looking at the NAM data, it make things even MORE confusing! What’s new about this is that the NAM has significantly warmer temps south but has expanded the heavy precip a lot more north. So much that 2-3″ of rain in the south. 2-5″ of sleet, over a foot of snow north, and the worst, significant freezing rain! It basically has A LOT more of everything. The upper dynamics of this storm has even gotten more complex like the dynamic cooling that takes place in the mid levels of the atmosphere causing a ton of sleet and snow. Ahead of this, temps rise high into the 50s BUT drop significantly but still keeps temps marginal. I honestly can’t believe how crazy this is. To say this is a very complex storm would be an understatement. 00Z GFS running, we’ll see how that turns out…
Short version, nobody knows 😉
This!
Keep us updated
Believe she’s going way North..Just out to 33
I’ll say one thing, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Florida warning out for record cold.
Just to give you guys an idea of how complex this system is and will continue to be, the 00Z NAM has Jefferson Co. getting 1″ of snow in far southern part of county and 10″ in far northern part of county.
You could experience a whole lot of everything in a matter of a few miles with this potent winter storm.
Did I mention there is another storm behind this next weekend?!?
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX
So I live in McConnels Trace Subdivision in northwest Lexington. So it could literally be 10 degrees colder at my location that at the mesonet or the airport? In that short of a distance? Jake, you said it was -16 at your location in north Fayette…….Dear God……I mean, it’s 11 pm and still hours of cooling to go……
Yep… big variations show up with a snow pack and clear skies. Wild!
Down to -19 now! My house is making popping/cracking noises. I’m legitimately worried about the animals we have in our barn, so I hope we don’t get much colder than this.
Aggod night to snuggle up..
http://i.imgur.com/a9EZ4JW.gif
A good.lol
2009 ice storm all over again
For some perhaps.
I’m in Nelson County/Bardstown…if there’s an Ice Storm, WE ARE THERE! (I’m not straying off my limb, either….)
So the 00z GFS has rolled in and is now on board with the NAM, though it is the warmer of the two, bringing less frozen precip in general, but still plenty of flooding and ice. Less sleet and snow though. This increases confidence on where the uncert-ainty lies.
This is going to be a nowcast event, unless somehow the models line up perfectly in tomorrow’s 12z run, which is the last run before the precip starts. What a headache…
CB pretty much said we might not know until this time tomorrow.
Essentially a nowcaster due to nature of the event.
Warm air always wins. Well it use too. Can we break the trend twice in one week? 2004 all over again. Seems to be very similar storm.
We live in the country, in northern Jessamine, and I can’t believe the temperature difference! I came home this evening from Lexington, around 8pm and temperature on the car was around 3 degrees, by the time I had driven about 5 miles, and was in the countryside, the temp had dropped to -11. I’ve checked two different thermometers here at home and temp here at 11:30 was sitting at -17. That’s a big difference from the -4 I see on the TV screen.
Tomorrow is going to be a very interesting day in the weather model world. And a very tough day for forecasters. Better get some sleep tonight all you weather weenies!
I can totally FEEL the bone chillingness in my house……..It’s different from last night. I think I’m in one of those cold locations. I’m freezing!
Me too!!! It feels SO much colder in my house tonight. I am usually warm natured but I am FREEZING.
Same here. It’s absolutely insane. We’ve got our wood burning stove on HIGH tonight. Water is shut off too. No messing around with this stuff.
Leave a steady stream and your water shouldn’t freeze off.
Leave the cabinet doors open where there are water pipes as well.
I wonder if this low pressure is predicted to go between Lexington and Huntington? Pretty big difference in predicted highs for both day s this weekend. Lex in low 30’s, Hunt in low to mid 40’s.
39 degree difference between Madison and Fulton County Mesonet sites. That’s crazy! MC may hit -30 tonight!
47 degree difference as of 12:30 now! State has a huge gradient at the moment
Guess the american models was teasing..Oh Canada..Still a good hit up north..Until tomorrow..
http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/15/02/19/95e2d0c4e1a033a5e278848a263cbdcc.jpg
Ugh. Maybe it’s time to take a job transfer to another state.
Got my grocery list made out. Will head out late morning for those few supplies.
FLOODING be the big story here.
http://origin-www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/?n=winter_overview_wsw_snow_ice
I was just looking at this and it shows Morgan County with a decent hit of snow and a touch of ice. But looking Jackson and south it seems ice is a much bigger player in their forecast.
And I feel temperatures are not rebounding like they thought. Sun is out but it is not hitting the hourly forecast at all and has a ways to go to hit any forecast highs I saw. My place current has 6 degrees with the mesonet showing 10 (I am out from town and the sun has trouble getting in for the trees).
With temps not rebounding as well I just hope ice is not a much bigger player for more people with this. We do not need a week or so without power.
Bailey’s thoughts are going to be welcome. He should have a little better feel on how this low is flowing and where the cold will relent the most. And I trust he will compensate for any errors he feels are in the models at this point.
This storm is showing some of the same dynamics of the 94 storm just in diffrent order. A lot of strong upper level dynamics like thunderstorms being one. This could be a storm of many tricks. Those being frozen tricks.