Good Friday, everyone. Our frigid February is just about to come to and end and it’s all eyes on the month of March. It’s a month that is usually a very fickle month and probably my least favorite weather month of the entire year. The first week of March will illustrate why I think that way as we have some ugly, ugly stuff ahead.
Thermometers starting out our Friday will be near zero in the far north and in the low teens across the south. Highs today range from the upper teens north to mid 20s south. Yippee!
Saturday will start out with… wait for it… wait for it… some single digits! Afternoon temps hit the mid 20s in the north to the low 30s in the west and south. At least we have a little bit of sunshine. 🙂
A super duper busy pattern then takes shape to usher in the 3rd month of the year. Our first system arrives Sunday and continues into Monday and should bring a wintry mix and rain. Watch the back and forth transition on the GFS…
That’s just ugly and a setup that will feature oscillating temperatures from north to south.
The Canadian Model is colder and has more frozen precipitation during this time…
The next storm system rolls in later Tuesday and Wednesday and has much more of a heavy rain threat with it. The action may start out as a mix in the north on Tuesday, but gusty winds will blow a brief spike in temperatures into our region. Some thunder will be possible, but the greatest threat will be from the heavy rain.
Another storm system is likely to form on a VERY strong cold front moving in here later Wednesday and early Thursday. The GFS has been showing this very well for several runs in a row…
The Canadian Model is also picking up on that to a lesser extent…
Early this week I said next week had a lot of possibilities and you are seeing that now playing out on the computer forecast models. Let’s just sit back and see where we go. Personally, I’m cheering on sunny and 80. Oh wait… that’s not an option.
I will update things later today. Make it a great Friday and take care.
I have to say I follow your blog all the time…. I live in Ashland Kentucky and you are almost always right on the money for the entire state. I see what you show and wonder how others aren’t seeing the same thing. I just read Tony Cavaliers blog and he is saying this is the last week of artic blast, but looking atall the maps you leave for us, that is so far from the truth. SMH. It just makes me wonder. Please keep up the excellent postings because my husband and I totally relie on tour weather for casts anymore. Here in the tri state it feels often times like they are more worried about Huntington-Charleston, while you are worried about ALL of us Kentuckians! Thank you Chris Bailey. I don’t know what we would do without you!
March is a month of significant change, and is one of, or my favorite month of the year. It is for me because the weather is usually VERY active since it’s the strongest transition month of the year. March could bring heavy snow, Arctic cold, super ice, deadly tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, sunny and warm, maybe even hot weather. The more active, the more interesting and fun it is to track and watch and see how the month unfolds. I love ALL weather and diversity is better IMO because we’re not stuck with the same weather the entire month. March brings the first 60° weather and smiles to our faces after a long cold and snowy winter. It makes us appreciate spring and warmth more than ever, even if we don’t get much cold or snow. March is awesome IMO! 🙂
Or flooding, like we might get next week. And drought is rough to get by in a month like March, because so many changes are going on in the atmosphere.
Israel . I tried your advice on posting using dashes in a word that the bot would consider a bad word. I tried twice. I did not work……
I’ll try to use different words. Chris, your vocabulary is huge……But I think my least fav weather month is either August or Sept = Boring usually. I do remember in Sept 2006 we had a big thunderstorm in Lexington and I think it rained 7 inches. I was on the phone with internet tech support while it was going on around midnight, and the tech support guy was like, is that thunder? He heard it through the phone. I said yes it’s terrible. He looked at the radar while I was on the phone with him and he said he saw the big storms. That storm was crazy……but overall, august / sept is pretty boring.
You can also try what TennMark does, dashes between every letter of the word and it should for sure work. Unless there is another word it filters out.
Haha, I feel the same way. Overall, I think September is my least favorite. And like you said, it’s a boring, dull month in term of activeness. But the only thing I like about September is the cool weather after the summer, but it’s never as active as March.
NWS Jackson
SOME RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT NEXT WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN OVER A DECADE.
I wish we could have some warmer temps and dry weather. This flooding potential makes me very nervous.
We were at full ground saturation *before* the 14″ of snow and subsequent precipitation. This spring is going to get ugly. Too bad we never bothered with that second reservoir or we’d have that filled up as well. “We have too much water supply!”, sad no small town ever.
When I used to work at Rural Metro in Lexington some years ago, me and my coworker at the time took several patients back to the Irvine/Ravenna area and would stop at the restaurant under the bridge in Irvine. I remember so well the distinct markings of when the 1997 flood caused the KY river to rise so high.
I grew up in Irvine. That restaurant was built to rise with the river to minimize damages. It was pretty cool to see flooding pics and see the restaurant rise up with the water level and stay secured with the poles and cables that kept it from floating downstream
That bridge, I think she’s getting those laser removed. 😉
March is by far my least favorite. For years it was depressing to see Winter end especially the Great Winters of the 70’s and the 90’s. Not so much now with the lack of Winters recently. I don’t like the back and forth of March 25 degrees one then 75 the next. October is my favorite cooling down after a hot Summer, Football, the upcoming holidays and the shorter days.
18 here in Carrie of knott co this morning. Although cold I’m glad the really cold didn’t materialize this week
Woke up to another coating of snow this morning in Clay County. Didn’t expect to see that this morning!! Our driveway is covered.
So, when you say VERY strong cold front, is this a sign that we’re about to get some very severe thunderstorms rolling through Thursday night?
Elk, in order to get widespread severe thunderstorms alot of things have to be in place besides a strong cold front.
We got a light coating of snow in Floyd Co. IN.
Concerned about rain amounts. I hope there is not widespread flooding.
I keep expecting foreboding posts from CB for mid and late March in regards to storms. The cold and warm air should start sparring around then.
There is some light snow in Bowling Green, we have a coating, as of now.
Rodger is very impressed with the last two weeks and what COULD happen this next week. IMPRESSED = one of the most boring winters ever turned into a BIG WINTER! The rain this next week could cause big problems. Rodger hopes everyone stays safe!
It was 7 degrees this morning just outside of Jackson Ohio
Is CB posting an afternoon update?
Only CB knows
🙂
May favorite month is May, temps in the low 80s and nice rounds of thunderstorms, and most of all FISHING!
Rodger in Dodger, you have my interest peaked. I took CB’s post to mean a huge rain event. But I like where you are going with the BIG WINTER mention. Hope you are right. I am still hoping March roars like a lion on the way out. Then I will be ready for Spring!
Ronald in dodger doesn’t have the same ring to it
Ah, tis true. And I tried to come up with something, but I got nada. It’s a difficult situation, much like determining if the dress is blue and black or gold and white.
Woke up this morning to 0 degrees in Wisconsin Dells. Tonight -9 is the low with high Saturday 16 with 50% chance of snow. Looks like my trip home Sunday afternoon could get a little dicey. Chicago forecast is for 80% snow Indy snow to rain and the rain to possibly ice coming into Louisville. Next week could get very interesting with flooding rains and falling temps later in the week with a possible snow storm. Thanks for the updat CB.
I’m officially over with this winter and ready for spring. The time changes next weekend and the first day of spring is only 3 weeks away. Now we need the temps to warm up and the flooding rains to end and all will be good.
March may not bring the best weather, but at least its march madness!!! Go cats!!!!
From the guy CB retweeted earlier today…
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/571421132684812289
The second map is beautiful!