Good afternoon, everyone. It’s another ugly weather day in the bluegrass state. A chilly rain is combining with low clouds to usher in March with a case of the “blahs”. As we head into the first full week of the month, big temp swings, heavy rain and another shot from Old Man Winter are on the way.
A modified arctic front moves in tonight and knocks our temps well below freezing with some very light snow or flurries for a time. Readings dropping through the 20s = slick travel developing from refreezing. Keep that in mind if you’re going to be travelling into early Monday.
Temps begin to increase on Tuesday as a warm front lifts to our north. Gusty showers and some rumbles of thunder will be possible. Locally heavy rain will be a good bet and that could cause some local high water issues.
We have a strong arctic cold front moving in on Wednesday and that will spawn a couple of waves of low pressure along it. The timing of the front in relation to these low pressure system will be the determining factor between more heavy rain and healthy winter storm.
Most of the modelling is leaning toward the winter solution with the waves of low pressure developing just to our east and southeast then riding along the front. The European Model continues to be super duper impressed with this setup and is spitting out a TON of winter precipitation Wednesday and Wednesday night. This map isn’t JUST as snow map and likely incorporates a lot of sleet into the mix…
Again… that is NOT a pure snowfall map and it’s only one run of one model. It’s important to look at the trends of the models and the overall setup. That setup, to me, is one that is likely to produce a swath of significant winter weather across our part of the world.
We have a few days to watch and see how this thing sets up.
The cold coming in behind whatever we get from that is impressive. The European Model…
If I could find my white flag in all the snow still on the ground… I would wave it.
Take care.
I want this mid week event to be the GRAND FINALE of Winter 14-15. Then, it can be Spring.
Yea! This! What he said! Wanting one more grand snow storm, then spring.
YES! Bring on the snow!
NWS forecast for Lexington, Wednesday:
Wednesday Rain likely before 1pm, then snow likely. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Hummm, then snow likely, some thunder is possible; Thunder snow? Can it be? It is March, anything’s possible I guess
Think spring
Bring on the weather Channel and Jim Cantori
Please let that run of the Euro be wrong. Please.
Would love 1 more good snow in SE KY
I support this comment maybe this will put us over the double digit mark for the season.
One more & I’ll be a happy camper.
The northwest ttend is strong…
*trend
I love your blogs! You make weather interesting and fun!
If the mid-week storm has a bunch of precip for my area I hope it is snow. Things are soaked already. Then we can have some warm dry days and slowly melt it off instead of a ton of rain that floods things.
Thanks for the update Chris. One more big SNOW would be awesome and then ready for spring!!!
I’m with you. The snow in Woodford county is taking a big bit today with the rain. One more big snow would be be perfect and then everyone else can have their spring.
I don’t think I have the strength to tackle another big snow. I really would like to see rain out of this
What he said. My back spasmed a little bit after looking at the precip totals. I know, I know, don’t take the model verbatim. Maybe I should just get into better shape, and the shoveling wouldn’t bother me so much.
Nam is getting on board..Early but sure looks interesting..Will it go North/South or rain/sleet/snow..Guess we will know in a few days..Personally hope it’s a wet snow..Nothing more beautiful than a wet snow sticking to everything..
I think this could be out last real shot at having another winter storm in the state for the rest of the season. Even if we are 30 degrees below average into late March, it’s still a bit warmer than last months 30 degrees before normal. Highs in the 30’s? Not too shabby for that far below normal.
18z NAM once again has taken the mic and walked off stage lol
Link to this, please.
Goodness.new NAM crushes central and eastern Kentucky with huge, heavy wet snow Wed-Thu..
Can you post a link?
I’m not so sure about it moving to far. The models have been showing this event for a while, they just had them as a warmer solution but now they have trended colder. But the bright side is this snow shouldn’t stick around as long.
Hypothetical 15:1 snow ratios…
Mistake
Could you post a link for the European model?
Could you post a link for the NAM model?
Uh you might but the rest of us here in harlan county don’t.we are just now starting to get our lives back to normal.we don’t need anymore snow at all mr wildcat.
Gfs giving central ky and souther ky a good thumping of snow
Surely someone can post a link to the 18z NAM snowfall map? Instant Weather Maps doesn’t seem to be showing the frames anymore, and I want to get excited.
Yours is the only forecast that I trust, keep up the great work, I know it must literally “wear you out.” In central Kentucky, the fog is beginning to rollin. Have a great evening folks.
Are the numbers on the snowfall model the inches of snow if it were to all hypothetically fall as 10:1 snow?
NWS in Charleston WV has no snow in the forecast this week except maybe some flurries late tonight with at least 40 degree highs except for Thursday which has 30 for a high. Looks like they are counting on the power of the trend and southwest wind.
Actually they are just terrible at forecasting. Two hours before an event they well hop on board.
Most of the time it is under 24 hours like the one snowstorm we got.
I personally would love a midweek snow thumping for Lexington. Tomorrow will be my first day back to work in three weeks due to having surgery Feb. 9th, a snow week the next week and then surgery again last Monday. It’s definitely gonna be tough going back! Lol.
Does anyone remember the jokes about land sharks or snow sharks from the snow-covered late ’70’s? If we were to get all that heavy wet snow mid-week, I fear their return! 🙂
We are talking about Wednesday night. In weatherworld, that’s a long time. While I would love to be excited for snow, I will wait. The last time NAM showed 15 inches the night before, it was off. I would love a big snow again!
I’m going to be the outlier on this topic. I have wanted a big snow for 15 yrs and we finally got 2 in a weeks time totaling nearly 20″. Too much of a good thing can be as bad as nothing at all… I’m done with it now and hope this potential does not play out. Ready for dry warm weather til next fall and winter at which time I hope for another nice snow maker! 🙂
I am with you on this.I loved the big snow but it was enough to last me for awhile.I still have at least 6 inches of snow piled in places and along the drive where I shoveled.It was so frozen it is taking forever to melt.Now my yard is like walking on a sponge and I have shoveled snow for 2 weeks.It was 10 days before I could leave this hill with the last one.My hill is over 400 feet straight up.That is a lot of shoveling and takes days to dig out.I can wait awhile for the next one but I am thinking we may get hit again.Don’t really want the rain either but my aching back says rain before more snow.
I’m not holding my breath. Warm
Air most always wins in seky when involved
It does in my part of WV also. I agree with you.
Not getting my hopes up, not getting my hopes up, not getting my hopes up…. (Yes, I would love one more big snow.)
What do the different weather models look like?
Don’t know if this will help but you may try– coolwx.com
I’m more interested in the temp being 56 for the entirety of Tuesday on the 7-Day. No easy feat, I’d think.
18zGFS
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
I always like watching different prediction within a few days out.
Here we go!
Wednesday for Lexington-metro
NWS: Rain to Snow likely (no accum given)
TWC: Rain to mix (no accum given)
Accuwetaher: 1.7″
Weather Underground: 5-8″
Intellicast: 5-8″
5-8 feet!? That’d be exciting!
wait, nvm. My screen was zoomed out and the two dashes blended together. lol
NOOOO!!!
I’m trying to remember the few days before the last epic snow we had. I think it went north, then we complained, then it went south to TN, then we were all bummed out, then it went back north and everyone made the bread milk runs….So much changed back and forth 3 days before the storm…….I still have a lot of snow piled up on the sides. I’ve been wanting it to go away. I feel like it’s been on the ground an entire month…
WPC starting to sniff this out as well
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
Could someone please post the link to the latest NAM. Thanks. :o)
Snow will just north of the Ohio River. Would be my bet.
On behalf of all the nurses, MDs, RTs, Paramedics, EMTs and other essential healthcare personnel… please let this forecast be wrong.