Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a very active weather day taking shape across the bluegrass state with the potential for severe storms and high winds. This setup is all part of a very wild pattern that carries us through the upcoming Christmas weekend.
Let’s focus on today before looking down the road:
– Scattered showers and storms work from south to north early today as winds increase.
– Wind gusts to 40mph will be possible this afternoon with higher gusts this evening into the overnight hours.
– Strong to severe storms develop across western Kentucky this afternoon and roll eastward this evening. These storms may be widespread damaging wind makers with a few tornadoes possible. The best chance for tornadoes will be across western and central parts of the state.
The Storm Prediction Center is bullish on the severe weather threat…
Today’s Risk Area
The rest of your severe weather tracking tools in a bit.
From there, we find our boundary checking up across southeastern Kentucky on Thursday. That may keep some rain going in the southeast into Christmas Eve…
That could also touch off a sharp northwest to southeast temp gradient…
That front then slowly lifts back to the north on Christmas Day with heavy rain and some thunder developing…
Very heavy rain totals are possible through Saturday morning…
High water issues may develop during this time.
We may see the wave of rain push a little farther north for a while on Saturday. If that happens… record highs will likely be set. If it doesn’t happen, flooding is almost a given.
The actual storm system works across the region late Sunday into Monday with showers and thunderstorms continuing. This could also bring a renewed high water threat.
I leave you with all the tracking toys of the day. Don’t forget to take advantage of our interactive radar that can zoom into street level, show the latest watches and warnings, storm motion and type, and you can see live storm chaser cams from anywhere in the country…
Current Watches
Possible Watch Areas
I will have another update later today. Enjoy the day and take care.
Tornado Watch already up this very early morning for areas that include Arkansas, so the elements (including shear) are already coming together.
While strong damaging t-storm winds will indeed be the convective threat with the highest chances, the Storm Prediction Center still has far western parts of Kentucky and Tennessee within an elevated chance of stronger tornadoes (EF2 and higher).
SPC will have a new update at 8am eastern/7pm central.
Thanks CB for looking after us! Everybody stay safe and get your weather alert devices ready.
This is crazy – NOAA did a write up on wettest years in Lexington and Louisville. Since I moved here in 1996, in the wettest years top 20 list, 8 of them have happened since 1996.
We’ve had a couple of 3-minute tropical downpours here in the past couple of hours. What a potentially wild day ahead. I suppose I’ll need to finish work early and start preparing in case spotter activation is required (meaning drinking beer on the front porch).
Chris any chance we can get a mid day update post before it get too crazy? It is the potential tornadic/severe activity likely to make it as far North as Central KY? The updated NWS discussion is a bit hard to follow. Thanks! WW
… and the snow system chance around New Year’s is now shown by the models to go well south and east 🙁 Rodger not liking this early winter at all! Rodger in Dodger
Praying for no Tornadoes in our area. Thank you Chris for keeping us up to date. We will be watching you as this system gets closer. Merry Christmas to everyone.
Mesoscale discussion highlighting new Watch box soon for part of Louisville CWA, indicating likely
Brian Goode at WAVE 3 listening in on CC with NWS, updates on WAVE 3 weather blog
Not seen one of these in a while..PDS
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0559.html
The Heat Miser loves these temperatures but doesn’t love super cells like the one in western Hopkins County that has a nasty looking hook to it.