Good evening, everyone. I’ve seen nothing today to change my thoughts on what happens with this winter storm. That doesn’t mean those thoughts won’t change at some point tonight, but for now, things are on track for a major winter storm to blast Kentucky.
A few thoughts:
– A nasty mix of precipitation moves from south to north tonight into Friday morning. Southern Kentucky can get in on a few hours of sleet and freezing rain that can cause some icy issues.
– The entire precipitation shield may start as a brief period of sleet before heavy snow takes over.
– Heavy snow is likely Friday into Friday evening with 1″-2″ snowfall rates per hour for some.
– Winds gusting from 30mph -40mph will create whiteout conditions at times. Blowing and drifting snow is likely and we could see some huge drifts.
– Wraparound snows will continue late Friday night into Saturday across central and eastern Kentucky.
– Blowing and drifting snow may continue even after the snow stops Saturday.
– Road closures and power outages are possible with this setup.
– Temps by Saturday night into Sunday morning can go below zero if skies clear over a deep snowpack.
Here’s the current thinking for snowfall…
A Winter Storm Warning is out for the entire state of Kentucky…
Let’s track the winter weather in from the southwest…
Enjoy the evening and take care.
First one of about 200-300 comments to come!
Like
Great Job C.B.
Thanks for all your hard work. Bring it on! .
Any thoughts on the severe storms down south stealing the moisture from coming north?
Good question as I thought about that too. Maybe he will address this in one of his tweets
I hope you are right I trust your forecasts. You have been on to this system for some time now. We have one local forecaster in my Hunt/Chas area still saying rain will cut our totals way down. He said we probably wouldn’t have an inch by dark. He seems to be an outlier.
Who is reporting this? It’s driving me crazy trying to figure it out!
Channel 8
Love this time of year and this blog. It’s a blast.
Is this storm going to bring warm air with it ? It’s currently 30 in Pine Knot , radar shows precipitation is very near but we aren’t forcasted for much snow ….. I’m confused!
This has the potential to be WORSE than the March storm last year for Central Kentucky, especially with the wind. Snow drifts will be huge and blowing snow onto roads will make it extra difficult to keep up with roads. Lexington will be CLOSED tomorrow.
Tell that to my boss
14-18 inch totals will take a while to melt with high drifts. There could be a state of emergency tomorrow into Saturday for many.
Live a few miles north of Louisville in Indiana. Hope we receive at least a foot of snow!!!!!!
Love it when it snows!!!!!
No hard feelings, SEKY crew.
Add me to the list of those calling for this guy to be banned. He just won’t stop!
What are you on about?
As BubbaG would say….This!
We will eventually get ours. I live in Corbin and we also missed out on the big totals of last February’s storm. Think we had somewhere around 8-10″ when other places in E. KY were getting slammed with upwards to 20″ …I just hope we atleast come out with something decent before all the moisture is gone. 6-8″ would be good 🙂
I have been reading this blog all day and I have noticed Shaak has been trying to start drama day.. Not sure why? Starved for attention,I’m guessing
I’m the one starting it? The SEKY crew have been trashing CB’s call all day saying the storm would move south when it clearly hasn’t/won’t.
I agree Sara. SHAAK is on this whole north vs South kick. Who cares man!! Your comments are Based on getting something stirred up. We’re on here to discuss the snow event. Not to start another civil war over the weather!! Chill out man.
Says the guy who trashed the people for calling him out for saying snowpack had no bearing on the weather.
SHAAK, that was a weather related comment about the snowpack. Your remarks are not. Seems your not very popular on this blog. Keep it weather related. I’ll vote for you to be banned.
*you’re
And people can vote to ban others? Interesting.
CHILL…..run around the block if it will help you.
I haven’t seen anybody trash Chris
At what point will we hear from our Governor? Don’t you think it’s about time to declare a State of Emergency, so state police can close roads, if need be.
Anyone have access to the new RPM and want to share?
Local METS in Louisville just do not understand. 2-4-6-8 or 16 inches of snow…..moot point on amounts, this storm had nasty sustained winds coming from the North. Treacherous to all.
What are you on about?
With the temperatures being colder than expected in BG currently, will this mean more sleet/snow for our area? It was supposed to rain for several hours but the radar looks like the colors are changing before the moisture hits the state line.
Thanks for all the updates CB!
I’m thinking more snow/sleet and a quicker change to all snow for BG, myself. Temps busted 5 degrees below the forecast high, and currently a couple degrees colder than predicted. Looks as if snow is starting to show up on radar in Simpson and Allen County, too!
I hope so.
Yep, light drops of sleet falling in my backyard in Simpson County. Earlier and colder than forecasted too!
Winds will be wrapping in and around from the North. Hello to you, too.
1ft+ snow on top of my already snow-covered road is not good.
chris,
I am hoping you will be wrong about this snow, but I do know you will be right about it this will be history made
I’m in Bardstown…..therefore, am pretty thrilled @ this point in time….I shall have to wait, though, to see if I can run outside @ 5:30am in 16″ “thundersnow” in my PJ’s like I did on Jan. 16, 1994…..
As am I, Debbie. We are in a good spot to top last year’s storm.
That storm was epic. I still tell my kid about it all the time
SHAAK, time to finish watching Dragon Tales and have some surrogate tuck you in for the nite. Sweet dreams.
Hey Grizz, how are you?
Gonna be an interesting night! Lots of bust potential too which is always part of a big winter storm. Rodger in Dodger
Why do you think that? Storm track? Temps? Past history? Just seems a lot of agreement at this point and we are really getting close to the event that a dramatic movement in the track seems less likely. What are you thinking? Temps maybe? WW
BG just tweeted about the storm maybe losing some power to a new low off the South Carolina coast. That could rob moisture and lower totals, I guess.
We’ve seen all the reasons why there will be a big storm. Can someone who knows give us thoughts on what the bust potential is for central Kentucky?
Cool! Thanks!! Let’s hope it is too late! I notice CB had a bit of a qualifier in his last update.
What time should we expect the beginning of the storm in Louisville?
I live in southern Indiana, right across the Ohio River from Louisville. I love this blog and read it almost daily. (Sometimes, in times like these, multiple times a day..ha!). Thanks, Chris, for all you do! You rock!!
Is there a realistic chance this storm trends NW at the last moment? It seems this happened a couple times last year with the southern storms….
I think it could slightly. As far as moving SE at the last moment, you have a better chance of hitting the powerball than that happening.
I live on the Northeast side of Pikeville, in the Belfry school district. We are awful close to that 12-24 inch zone…I think I measured 18 inches last February in my backyard, it will be interesting to see if we can top that at my house with this storm. We are stacked up on groceries, got the generator ready to go if needed though i really I hope I don’t need it and more firewood and coal than we can burn….so I say bring it on Mother Nature, the more snow the better 🙂
I see heaviest snow setting up from JACKSON Co east northeast thru Ashland to Pikeville. 15-22 inches
Great,party at my house lol Hope everyone stays warm and safe it was insane today when I was out @Wal mart!!
I hear ya!! It was nuts here too!
Of all things…all the bananas were gone!! *gasp* 😀
I shared a buggy with a random lady at Kroger.
knott county too to rolo? I’m close to the floyd county line around wayland.
I work in a hospital. I have to make it to work tomorrow. Any snow lover want to pick me up tomorrow afternoon. Anyone who wishes snow for me I wish a tornado on them in the spring. After all it’s Mother Nature.
Do you live in Lexington/Fayette? Our sheriffs department announced that it will transport people in the medical field, help as well as help pickup critical medications or transport people to critical medical appointments. You can call 252-1771
snow totals have been raised on intellicast for my area, was 3-5 and now 5-8 for friday Athens Ohio
Where is Athens located in Ohio? Just Curious.
pretty much straight line over from parkersburg wva
Could severe storms take some
Energy away
Let’s hope
Yes…good point. It has happened before.
Seeing that the storm is happening soon, I just have to say that its been wonderful keeping up with the blog comments and speculating with you all! Lets look on the bright side–at least we have a storm to talk about! Everyone stay warm and safe out there!
It sure is interesting to see the temps and the dew point continuing to lower here in Harlan. I am currently at 28 degrees with a dp of 27 degrees. Many of the local forecasts are still showing freezing rain changing to rain between 3 and 6am with temp around 36 degrees; however, I am thinking that we may get more frozen precip early on Friday than most are saying and may end up with much higher totals than most predictions have us at. Also, CB added a few inches down in SE KY to his post this evening…we will see tomorrow!
We got some descent totals with the storms last year here in Louisa. Waiting to see what this years gonna bring. According to the numbers, its gonna be an interesting one for sure.
correct me if im wrong ,,, looking at radar and living in southern ohio,,,for more snow we need to see precip to keep coming north.. which its suppose to but,, being greedy further it moves north the better?
HEY SHAAK , fact is several of us said it shifted south from last nite run, and guess what IT DID!!!! that said nobody has bash Chris, not sure how long u been round but need calm down brother. cause the OLD SCHOOL CREW will set u straight.
110%
Well said, Rolo. Basta.
Where is Vinny..chas…Bernie..Shawna…Shawn..and the rest of our crew!?..
Vinny posts seldom the rest packed up and went I think due to the direction the community was going.
🙂
Watching and waiting, Tim. 🙂
You rang?
I’m pretty much Twitter only these days, but read the blog daily.
Hey ya’ll, I am lurking about. I don’t post much anymore. But I read. 🙂
We need a chat place like the old days. 🙂
Rolo, I live here in Harlan and the temps are about 5 to 7 degrees colder than computer models were showing for my area this evening…I am not thinking that I will get any rain from this storm as many forecasts are still showing. If any rain falls, it will likely be freezing and mixing with sleet unless my temps warm up about 7 degrees within the next 6 hours. What do you think about the temps and dew points?
Rolo my man I’ve been on this blog for 3 years. I’ve never meant ill towards ypu ever. I enjoy your posts.
all these fly by posters crapping up the place
I’ve been following this blog for several years! It’s people who post remarks attacking others that make it bad. It’s snow SHAAK. We’re all here to discuss what we think might happen. None of us are Mets. It’s all good brother!
The system did not really shift, but expanded both north and south due to the models finally catching on to the colder air.
Thank you!
VINNY is lurking, SHAWNA not sure what happen Tim.. terry I think there be couple hours of mix etc, then switch over.
New NAM is something to take a picture of and keep forever. The entire outline of Ky is covered with at least six inches of snow and most of central, eastern ky is above ten. Enjoy the view.
How much further north is it please?
That a boy Chris !!!!!
Here’s the issue folks…..25 miles from the Tennessee border and we ve already dropped to 26 degrees…..Rain? I don’t think so…..
Plus the ground is wayyy below freezing….if i9t does rain with frozen ground and 3 inches still on the ground we are TOAST
Yep, light drops of sleet dropping in my backyard in Simpson county! 30 degrees here according to the mesonet
It’s 28 in McCreary (I’m on tn border ) I’m just not seeing how it will rain !!!!
Oh it’s supposed to snow?
What does the guy want the people in SEKY to do? The entire site moaned about lack of a “dome buster” for many years on the blog and then when 3/4 of the state get the dome busted last year the other 1/4 of the state that didn’t is supposed to pretend like it snowed a foot in our backyard too and not mention that it did not? I hope everyone gets in on the snow, but if for some reason you don’t feel free to post it on here..
Yes we are suppose to pretend Bobt. Stay safe.
He’s jealous cuz of the epic upslope we have got
Upslope envy LoL 😉
Looks like moisture working into southern KY. Is it early, possible more freezing rain for us predicted to get some earlier? Appreciate your thoughts.
Somebody put up a link to the new nam
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016012200/namconus_asnow_seus_15.png
That would be a perfect set up for 98 percent of the state. I know it won’t happen, but that map doesn’t even miss an entire county for a decent snowfall. Only the far western edges of the state would see less than 1/2 of foot of snow. You couldn’t draw that one up much better. Wish it would happen like that.
Thanks it looks like the moisture is about to arrive in Bowling Green keep us posted what type of precipitation is falling from the sky
I’ll keep you posted.
the new snowfall map from the NAM chris tweeted out is an awesome sight ….thru 1p saturday …20 inches here in the mountains of WV …and supposed to snow til atleast midnight …WOW
CB has Pike County getting 10-18 inches and one of the Huntington channels has us getting 3-6 inches. I have faith in Chris! Regardless he’s the best!
Yeah I commented earlier about that broadcast at 6. That station is definitely an outlier. But the warm wedge and rain have been his story for a couple days now and he is sticking to it. There’s no middle ground with him he is going to look real smart or real dumb in a couple days.
I’m not a Met but have stayed in a holiday inn express if I am seeing radar correct it looks as if this storm is farther east. Any thoughts?
No thoughts…stayed at Motel 6 😉
BAM!!!! New NAM model run has Bell Co In the 14-18″. Bailey just tweeted it.
Lol at NAM. As much as these models change from run to run, it’s pretty much impossible to put together a snow fall map.. Bottom line it’s going to snow and there’s no telling how much will be in your backyard.
I just texted Brandon Robinson. Prolly going to up totals after 11:30 run for Bell Co area.
WYMT upped the totals a couple inches in this area
short range models have the L bordering Tennessee/Alabama.
I’m not trying to stir anyone’s emotions, but totals will increase for the Louisville area from my viewpoint.
yeppers
as in Lauren’s Jude? haha
fingers crossed
Your right c-BIV, I’d say by looking at it you should end up with about 3ft in Louisville..
Goodness it’s snow, this is a blog, and that was uncalled for.
Lol who is up for a little eastside vs westside showdown?
I will have to be fashionably late to the party. Time to hit the bed.
See you mudslingers tomorrow!
Good luck to all on the great white buffalo. 🙂
lol…..that’d be a bust, huh?
Checked the NWS website just now and can not fathom why or how they could have more updates. What could will likely be ONE of the biggest snow events/winter storms to affect the state and the forecast discussion post come twice day as usual w a few meager updates. I don’t get it! I know I have posted about this in the past but saw another post mention this yesterday or the day before. I just don’t get it! Yes I they maintain their weather advisories and overall warnings but they need more frequent meaningful.updates as this is a dynamic situation as you can see from following this storm and blog over the last few days. Anyone else agree? Not meaning to diminish their importance….tax payer dollars at work I suppose….
I agree, but it’s probably because MOST people aren’t going to be looking at a forecast discussion or anything in depth, just the actual forecast when they go to the site. Maybe that’s why? Just a guess………
Wonder what Chris means by this comment “That doesn’t mean those thoughts won’t change at some point tonight”? Couldn’t imagine upping totals. Think he see a shift in where the heavier snow is?
WYMT has
Yea just saw that.
Corbin riding on the edge on all of these latest hrrr model runs meanwhile laurel county gets hammered run after run..gonna be a close call for us. its literally a couple of miles between 12+ and 3
WYMT just upped totals again for SEKY after the latest NAM run.
How much for Knott county now Brad?
GFS says NAM needs to somewhat slow its roll.
GFS is somewhat less robust than the NAM. That said; it is nearly time to start nowcasting the storm.
Post GFS link , please
This one could break the dome in SEKY. I’m fine either way, but at least my 17 year old kid could see a “big” snowfall in her lifetime.
Light rain falling in Southern Warren Co.
Throw all the models out the door. This has become a now cast event. Moisture streaming in from the south looks to have a general North movement with a slight shimmy east. I just hope the leading edge makes it to the Ohio River west of Louisville. If not it will be a bust for the Metro. Being on the northwest side of the precip field is not good. My call is 1-3 for the Metro. Points to the East are in for a lot of snow.
It needs to hook up with that chunk coming out of Mississippi. I think that’s Mississippi….
I observe the northward movement as well. I bet CB’s call is dead on.
Agree.
TVOR says a lot less overall.
Possibly as much as 8 inches S/SW part of Louisville.
Can’t wait to see it start to snow. How soon will it start in Georgetown?
It looks like the ice threat is diminishing according to the snowfall totals in Somerset. There is a chance we see over a foot of snow!!
Looks like the plain rain equation has been taken out of the forecast as well
This makes me incredibly happy.
Cincinnati MET says 2″ extreme NKY. 6″ southern Kenton and Campbell counties.
Uncanny. Once again the voice of reason has lower numbers than CB. Significantly so. He did the same thing last year for the two events.
Almost like he has to be drastically different. I think Chris has nailed this yet again. Dude is on point!
If the thunderstorms to the south rob some energy, maybe TVOR’s numbers are correct. If not, his numbers are understated like last year.
NWS snow map says you sir will be shoveling 15 inches of snow……may the wind be your friend.
Boo!
Who is the voice of reason? new here and it’s driving me crazy trying to figure out lol
A met at another station. BM.
When are the next runs for maps – esp. the HRRR?
Just got my answer from a Brian Goode tweet:
“HRRR continues to trend the low more north and deeper pressure. This will be the model to watch for making changes.”
Chris just tweeted about the HRRR
The HRRr model continues to trend the low more to the north than the mainstream models.
Only time will tell but I like the trend.
Wish casting are we…
Nope
The evening data coming in is fairly similar to previous runs. There are a couple minor difference that we’ve noticed and will need to be watched for further trends. These small changes really don’t affect our current forecast because there was some margin of error built in. The evening runs brought the center of the low pressure about 20 miles farther north and pulled it back just a bit.
KH
How are people still arguing for a northwest trend? I want to see this make believe model. Central and eastern ky gets a foot to 2 feet. Louisville doesn’t. Simple
The key to knowing where the heaviest snow will fall is being able to determine where pressure drops are occurring ahead of the storm. Lows will typically track toward lower pressure. Looking at some of the updated information suggests a potential for a slightly more northern track. This is only one part of the puzzle. Many other factors are at play, but keeping an eye on the trends will prove helpful.
KH
Dude bro I am NOT rooting for a two foot snow in Louisville.
I hope you guys get clobbered down there record-breaking.
I just like to see Ohio River counties receive a significant snow.
Am I really the only one here who does not want this mess? Yesterdays 5″ snowfall was fun, however, the potential for 10+ more and 2 more days of lost work is not.
SO is flying into Louisville airport this weekend. Was really tripping earlier this week when the NAM was showing armageddon over the Ohio river. At least it looks manageable now.
I have a friend in Vegas and her flight to Louisville tomorrow is cancelled.
ugh…well here’s hoping
Always a perceived negative to a positive. I’m 50/50 about it.
You’re not alone. I’ve been dreading it all week..
Wow, I’ve never seen so many people bicker over snow amounts as if there is some sort of monetary award attached to the highest measurement. Such immature behavior in the comments today. Guess what? The storm doesn’t care where you live and no amount of hoping will charge that. This storm will surprise some and disappoint others. I’ll definitely be back for the whining entertainment that is sure to follow this storm. By the way, have you seen the latest HRRR??
Low is around Birmingham ala..She or he is still going south according to the GFS//
I’ve heard nothing but northern trends…its all.about hi res models now…not saying your wrong rolo…def respect your expertise.
Ok, old crew– is anyone hosting a chat place like we used to do years ago?
I have a pot of coffee on, ready to watch this thing go down. 🙂
If I could put some bourbon in the coffee we’ll be good to go here next door in Bardstown.
Cannot hang with the strong stuff!
A tsp of Bailey’s and I’d be asleep! 😀
I sure hope my part of Knott County doesn’t get over a foot!
Alot on here dont work im sure because if you did you wouldnt want this
That’s silly.
This ^
Yep.
I work in a bread factory of all places and they couldn’t care less about us. However, management surprisingly will most likely shut us down Saturday.
Yes,we all don’t work. We are all very poor. We hope it snows so we can collect it and make snow cream for our starving families. The struggle is real.
Haha!
Freezing rain here in BG.
The Storm Prediction Center just issued a MD stating that very light freezing rain will likely continue along almost the entire KY/TN line. But as we get closer to sunrise, it will change to all snow.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0040.html
Clarksville TN now reporting some freezing rain.
Does northern trend bring more or less snow to Eastern Kentucky/Western WV?
By the way, I love all you SEKY folks. Was just giving you a hard way to go.
SHAAK don’t let rolo or anyone else push you around. Rolo is not god and this blog is not a country club. 😉
<3 Jeff
Easy there, bucco.
NAM absolutely crushes SE KY. Every one look at the moonbow too. It is beautiful tonight. Still got around 3 inches here and with the moon it is beautiful.
As well as the rest of the state. This is going to be epic. Everyone please be safe.
NWS had Nelson County with 10-14 inches. Now they have 8-12 inches. Wonder what changed?
They still do. That graph isn’t reflective of what they wrote in their discussion. I mentioned that earlier today.
Up to 36 on Black mtn. Come on warm air! We need you now!
A coating of ice on a lot surfaces in BG
Just walked out to the road in subdivision . Solid sheet of ice on driveways and roads !
This is going to get ugly.
Power outages already reported in Franklin and Auburn. Hope the changeover occurs soon. Ice is not good .
I hope.
Question: I was reading the NWS discussion and they described the heaviest snowfall going to Madison, KY.
Where is Madison, KY?
I know Madison County, but is there a community called Madison?
I am asking sincerely, because we have have a crap ton of different communities in this state. Says the guy that grew up in Crawford Hill.
Probably the county.
If that is the case, then BOOOO on whomever wrote the discussion for the NWS.
I’m a Kentuckian, and I recognize the difference in counties versus communities. We are 120 and proud.
Probably meant Madison County, since not likely they would peg a smaller area like a very small town area.
Wait, I’m in Madison……. Anybody want some snow? 🙂 No, really!
Maybe they meant Madisonville? But probably county.
Getting some freezing drizzle in Harlan.
been snowing pretty good in Middlesboro the last 30 min
Freezing Drizzle and 28 in Knox County
Significant freezing rain began 10 minutes ago in Harlan with my automobiles already glazed:(
Same here untreated roads are bad already
Got a good glaze going in Harlan
South Corbin with steady freezing rain…
Hope it dont ice to much
I hardly ever see someone else blog from the same area. I don’t know how late I will stay up…wife says I am obsessed…but I love tracking significant weather events. I think (certainly hoping) that Harlan will transition quickly to snow and sleet without a great deal of ice. If we can, those puny snowfall totals will go by the wayside for sure:)
I’m don’t post alot but I’ve been following bailey when he had a blog on wkyt. Yeah I think it will turn pretty quickly I’d rather have snow than ice however, if it’s heavy wet snow it will be bad.
I am trying to see outside if any sleet is mixing in yet, but it still looks like all plain freezing rain. Hopefully, the change will take place soon. Although, wet snow can do damage as you probably remember in that pre-Christmas wet snow storm from 09″ We didn’t get but about 7 inches at the house but several trees were damaged!
Good morning everyone. Is the storm tracking more northward?
The freezing rain showing on radar is way further north than all the forecasts I have seen.
Radar has transitioned to rain over seky
Hey Chris – as soon as I write this, you’ll make a new post. But have you ever considered making “VIDEO” discussions and posting the video on your blog?
He has done that before.
Has anyone looked at recent model runs? I’ve saw snow totals being cut literally in half. It’s insane, and was wondering about the track of the storm as of now.
Freezing Rain in Corbin
Knox County freezing rain. Everything straight ice.
Freezing rain in Somerset right now. My concrete sidewalk already has a thin sheet of ice on it.
If this doesn’t change over in Corbin soon, We’re in major trouble.
why in trouble if it dont change over?
The trees and power lines are getting some small ice cycles starting here in Harlan–not good. Worst case scenario would be to get a good layer of ice then wet snow to add a lot of weight on everything.
Where’s all this snow? It’s 7am and the radar shows snow but not a single flake in Clark Co.
How many inches of snow for hart county