Good Thursday, folks. Milder air is taking control of our pattern for a few days and that’s a good thing for those of us needing a chance to thaw out. Unfortunately, it’s only a short reprieve from winter pattern. Odds favor a rather robust winter setup to return quickly as we roll into next week.
Low clouds and fog may be tough to burn off in some areas today. That could keep a few areas much cooler than the rest of the state. Those with more clouds may be closer to 40 degrees. More sun and you’re into the mid and upper 40s. Western Kentucky soars deep into the 50s.
Gusty southwesterly winds will crank on Friday and could reach 45mph at times. Those same winds will also blow much warmer air in here and that hangs tough into Saturday…
There’s enough moisture around to create a shower or two Friday night into Saturday morning…
The jet stream takes a big dip into the eastern part of the country on Monday. That dip initially brings rain our way as we wait for a storm system to develop across the deep south. This is a well telegraphed system, but the details of where and how strong will be worked out in the days to come.
The European Model continues to show a big eastern US winter storm…
That’s a solid snow hit for our part of the world late Tuesday through early Thursday. Again, I’m just watching the models for trends at this point.
The same model then follows that up with a potent clipper a few days later…
I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Thursday and take care.
The Euro can Zippidy doo da that storm right on out of here!
Since the theme will soon be “Spring Mode,” I have been thinking about the 1998 Spring season which had the never ending severe weather that year. I know that this El Nino is a lot of different than that one in terms of how our winter set-up has been, but the southern jet seems to be getting more active the closer we get to Spring which leads me to consider a very active severe weather season coming up–thoughts–
El Nino indeed often means a stronger southern jet which can feed wintertime severe wx in the southern states. Florida has had a very active severe wx season so far this winter. This includes the last few days such as that large EF3 not far from Pensacola which fortunately struck mostly rural areas. Very similar to early 1998 (which included Florida’s deadliest tornado outbreak ever on Feb 22).
Despite 1998 and 2016 being two very different (if still strong) El Ninos, my untrained take is that our area could definitely have an uptick in severe wx this spring even if this is a time that I’d like to be wrong and for this to the third straight spring with little severe wx. But our good luck can’t last forever.
Interestingly, there is some evidence (subject to further study) that our area actually has somewhat fewer twisters during El Nino periods and more tornadoes during La Nina episodes. This said, our area has had busy spring tornado seasons during El Nino years such as the spring of 1998 as Terry touched on……. and relatively inactive tornadic conditions during La Nina. Thus, the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO; includes El Nino, more neutral conditions and La Nina) is a big factor but far from the only one in influencing severe wx.
I will say we are due for some severe storms. Over the past two Springs here in Louisville there has only been a couple warnings that have produced any big storms. Next to Winter weather severe season is my next favorite, but heck who likes it when it is Sunny, Hot and Humid or 0 degrees with the sun out.
I remember 1998 was a very wet year, but I don’t remember anything crazy in the severe storm department….Since living here, for me, the never ending severe weather year was 2004…but I don’t know if that was la nina or el nino.
For Kentucky and Tennessee, April 16 1998 was indeed rather crazy. Bowling Green had a very destructive hail storm and flooding. Other areas of KY had fatal twisters including near Glasgow. In Tennessee, Nashville has its infamous downtown twister while an F5 hit south-central TN. I also mention a twister near Cleveland TN (one fatality) as it hit near my family and I; it kind of shocked me out of my complacency towards severe wx.
Whoops, I meant four straight seasons not three. Four straight spring seasons at that.
Relatively little has happened during spring seasons since the March 2 2012 outbreak. However, there have been a few more notable autumn and winter twisters since then including the fatal south-central TN storms last December.
I really appreciate all of your historical information that you post on here TennMark! You provide us with detailed historical facts from past important weather events which helps propel this blog to a new level. I am one of those that remembers dates very well–kind of a numbers freak type of guy. You give dates plus the historical data, not only for KY, but other states as well–enjoy your posts!!
I think the storm is a better possibility than the clipper. Clippers this year have been anything but potent in my area.
Looks like BG misses the next week storm, unless the infamous westerly track change occurs!
Is the storm next week looking to be a rain/snow mix?
Seems like Chris is more sold on next week potentially producing snow around here than other mets I’m seeing on Twitter. I trust Chris the most so that makes me have hope! Need one more GOOD SNOW! Then Spring can make it’s permanent arrival.
Another Jenkins. You related to Clyde?
Family reunion! My people are from Harlan. Glad to see we share similar last names and an interest in weather. Must mean we are related!
Still living in Harlan and I am interested in next week’s storm. Okay, I am interested in every storm, whether it is rain/snow/ice/severe:)
Still living in Harlan and I am interested in next week’s storm. Okay, I am interested in every storm, whether it is rain/snow/ice/severe weather:)
Ignore the duplicate post–browser froze!
Thanks Chris. Appreciate all you do. I am like you, I am getting into the spring mode. When daylight savings time starts (first Sunday in March) then its time for spring to start showing up as well. but, like you, and the rest of my weather friends, guess we will take what we get until Spring decides to show up.
Have a great Friday Eve everyone. And GO CATS!!! Beat Tennessee.
If it will only trend a little bit farther west…
Looks like it has a little bit over yesterday’s runs. But just a little.
The comments field has changed. Anyone else notice that.
That is how boring the weather will be over the next few days. Haha
Go Cats!
Not everyone has had one big snow this winter. Louisville has not had a big snow. While many are ready for spring, some are wishing for a big one. My children’s dream snowstorm is one that starts on a Thursday, snows all night and the next day. They want to be snowed in all weekend with lots of fun times with family and outdoor play. Wasn’t it early March a number of years ago when around ten inches fell in Louisville?
Ummmmm try last March Louisville area got like a foot of snow
Not enough cold air 🙁 Rinse and Repeat
Question: on the Euro mode runs… The solid blue line at 540…. Is that suppose to be the “freezing line” for temps. Still in “lesson” mode from yesterday’s post. Trying to learn more about how to read the model runs. THANKS.
Yes ChattyKathy……The 540 line is the typical freezing line (32degree). Although with some stronger storms with heavy rain, Monday’s Southeastern KY, dynamic cooling can take place. So it could be above 32 degrees and the amount of rain falling is so heavy that it will push the colder air above down through the columns and create snow or sleet while the ground temp is higher than freezing.
Thank you , bjenks.
I am a bit confused. The Internet Web sites have our entire area in the snow for next week’s system. But then when they show their maps close up. It shows us in the dreaded mix. I am hoping for snow but if turns out like this past Mondays slop I would just soon it miss.
Oh by the way……BIG STROM NEXT WEEK…BIG STORM…right Another major winter storm….
Can anyone guess who that is from….
Joe Bastardi, Wetherbell Analytics.
I am not a premium member, but I visit his Saturday Summary and his daily updates. CB is the best but , for old timers Joe knows his stuff.
Yeah, Joe is a good guy. I am not a premium member either.
He doest seem thrilled with Euro. Run..lol ..storm? No storm?? Rain slop storm???.. He didn’t say why..lol…as for us folks here in southern east tn…we’ve yet to see our first snowstorm this season..
And i thought it sucked to live near the Ohio River. You have it even worse.
If it’s not I eat weights and read weather models for a living Joe Bastardi next logical choice will be Accuweather’s very own Henry Marquisity
I’m sure this has been asked too many times already….anyone have a link to the Euro? All the links that I google aren’t as clear as CB’s images that he regularly posts.
Keeping a eye on this.
Isn’t next week the anniversary of one last year’s mega snows?
It is Bubba….10″ in East Louisville on the 18th, 2015.
I have heard geese honking a lot lately. Spring will be here before we know it.
No updates from Chris?
I noticed that as well.
CB deserves some downtime with this brief period of relatively calm weather before things kick back up again next week.