Good Monday, everyone. The heavy rain largely avoided much of the bluegrass state over the weekend, but that can still change. The threat for heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread slowly eastward over the next few days.

After the tropical rains, the nicest air mass since late spring is tries to show up by late this coming weekend.

We have a lot to talk about, and I’ve loaded up the blog for your reading pleasure (or displeasure :)).

We start with the heavy rain threat. A slow-moving front continues to press in from the west as deep tropical moisture surges northward along this boundary. This has already produced flooding rains just to our west, and catastrophic flooding in Louisiana.

Initially, the flash flood threat is mainly across the western half of the state today. That will then spread eastward Tuesday and early Wednesday. The models continue to struggle with how much rain may fall across the state this week. The GFS has some hefty totals…

GFS

But, nothing like the Canadian Model…

Canadian

That is likely waaaaaay overdone. Regardless, a local flash flood threat is with us through the middle of the week.

It gets very steamy late this week as showers and thunderstorms increase once again. That continues into the weekend as a shot of cool air dives into the plains states…

Euro

The Ensembles show a nice blast of cool air sweeping in…

Euro 3

Most medium range models show highs a week from now in the 70s…

GFS Temps 3

Yes, please!

The overall trend is a cooler one for the next couple of weeks…

GFS Temps

GFS Temps 2

I leave you with your rain and storm tracking toys…

Have a great day and take care.