Good Wednesday to one and all. We have another day of near record setting highs taking place across the region. All that changes with a potent cold front arriving on the scene for Thursday. That front gives us some scattered showers and storms to go along with a seasonal brand of chill.
A broken band of showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany the front as it slides in from northwest to southeast on Thursday…
Temps drop quickly into the upper 50s and low 60s behind that front by Thursday afternoon. Winds will be very gusty as a seasonal chill fills the Friday air. Highs will range from the low and mid 50s east to low 60s in the far west.
The weekend weather looks very nice with low and mid 60s for highs with overnight lows in the 30s.
Changes next week include the potential for a slow-moving cutoff system developing by the middle of the week. The GFS is seeing this…
Models tend to really struggle with that kind of a system, but the signal for a cutoff is certainly there. The GFS even suggests a few flakes are possible with that by the end of the week.
It also shows some flakes by next weekend…
I still think that’s rushing things along too fast. There are no changes in the overall evolution of the pattern toward one that takes on an early season winter look. Watch the trough continue to get established…
That’s a nice look for across the central and eastern parts of the country as the ridge goes up out west. This matches well with what the seasonal CFS has been showing, and continues to show…
The closer we get to late November into December, the more I’m seeing some extreme analog years popping up.
A few days ago, I wrote about how the current SOI was mirroring 1947. The recent pattern has been very similar to that year. Check out the new October rainfall records for the Pacific northwest…
Many of the previous October records were set in 1947. 1950 also shows up a few times on that list. Those are two years I have talked a lot about recently, and it’s pretty incredible those are the years showing up even in the Pacific NW. Maybe I’m onto something, after all? 😉
Make it a great day and take care.
I wish I had a clue what he was talking about
James; Chris is good at what he studies what he saying that were in a same pattern that happen in 1947 and 1950 it was very warm beginning of November and the later part of the month the weather flip flop to a cold and snowy type. So being said he’s thinks we maybe in store of the same type of weather that happen in those years. His long range forecast is its gonna turn cold and possible some snow.
The term “analog years” in reference to weather is comparing data from similar weather pattern(s) from the past to data from our current or very recent weather pattern in a nut shell. It is kind of like learning from expierence…no the weather likely want end up identical to any given time frame like the winter of 1950 but it is useful to compare historical data to help predict the possible similar outcome for the upcoming winter.
I’ve always said the weather comes in cycles that’s why I have a hard time believing the warm.er climate theory.
I believe in some possible warming with modern chemical changes at the atmospheric level over the past 100 to 200 years, but like you, I agree that weather cycles are important patterns to study and understand….good point to mention!
With no significant chance of below normal temps until at least late next week, I am wondering how far we are going to push this growing season. Sure, some have had some frost, but most if not all in KY are still in the growing season with no sub freezing lows in the immediate forecast.
Still picking beautiful tomatoes here at the house!!!
This is some pretty incredible heat (and drought) across the region.. here’s hoping we can get some substantial rain soon..
Louisville already has broke there record of 82 degrees today. NWS should put a heat advisory out for the past 2 days mid and upper 80’s in November is absolutely ridiculous.
https://kyweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/1947-Pac-NW-rain.jpg
Impressive but not quite the Rain apocalypse that was predicted for the NW before the typhoon remnants hit.
Weren’t some Oct and Nov records set in 2007 for high max or high min temps?
So what are the down sides of having a similar winter to 1947 or 1950 in terms of what the community here likes to see out of a winter? I doubt it’s all fairy dust and unicorn poop with these analog years.
Will we cool down by next weekend for deer season. 11-12-16
At least back to normal levels??
Thanks Chris! Guess November is going to come in and let us begin to get cooler as the month goes on…that’s fine. We can get the outside decorations up before it gets frigid maybe! 😉
Have a great Hump Day everyone!