Good Tuesday, folks. We are dealing with a very weak system pushing across the region today, and this MAY touch off an isolated shower. This is a far cry from the system set to impact our weather from Friday through the weekend. That’s when we try to get a little taste of winter.
A mix of sun and clouds will be noted today, but I can’t rule out a small shower or two. Highs generally run in the upper 50s to near 60…
Temperatures by Wednesday should hit the low 60s with a mix of sun and clouds. Gusty southwesterly winds will then kick in for Thursday and Friday as temps head toward the lower 70s both days.
This is ahead of a monster storm system, likely to bring near blizzard conditions to the upper Midwest. That system drags a cold front in here Friday night with a nice band of showers and some thunderstorms sweeping in. Wind gusts during this time may be 30-40mph.
Temps will absolutely crash Saturday and should settle into the upper 30s in the afternoon. This is when some snowflakes may start to show up. The GFS is seeing this much better now…
That’s a strong and very cold northwesterly wind flow coming off Lake Michigan and aimed into our region Saturday into early Sunday…
Given how warm the Lakes waters are, a lot of moisture should be picked up and deposited downstream. That should be able to give us the first snowflakes of the season across central and eastern Kentucky. Areas of West Virginia should be able to pick up some decent accumulating snows.
“Decent” may turn into a lot for West Virginia and Pennsylvania if the European Model is correct with a stronger system…
Here’s a brief rundown of how this may play out for us:
- Temps on Friday hit the low 70s with very gusty southwesterly winds. This will be a bad forest fire day in the east.
- Much needed showers and thunderstorms will then zip in from west to east Friday evening into the overnight. That should help the fires in the east.
- Temperatures drop into the 30s for Saturday with the potential for a snow shower or snow flurry dancing around the central and eastern parts of the state. Winds will continue to be very gusty.
- The threat for some more snowflakes will take us into Saturday night and Sunday as strong northwesterly winds continue. Highs Sunday stay in the 30s after starting in the 20s.
- Lows by Monday morning may hit the upper teens and low 20s.
From there, another system will work our way just in time for the Thanksgiving travel period…
That could bring rain or some kind of rain snow mix to the Ohio Valley, but will need to be watched in the coming days.
The pattern continues to be loaded with potential as we head into the final week of November. There’s a pretty cold signal showing up on the Ensembles, and the setup favors some storm systems trying to work from west to east underneath the cold. That’s exactly what some of the long range models suggest…
As someone who likes true winter weather around the holiday season, I really, really like the looks of the early season winter pattern.
I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.
At this point I would give up a little taste of winter for a big shot of rain.
Rodger in Dodger is strapping in starting this weekend and ready for some winter weather! Rodger loves cold Decembers (unlike last year). Rodger in Dodger
Given our forest fire situation I twitched when I saw the pics about the Loi Krathong festival in Thailand today.
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=Loi+Krathong&FORM=HDRSC2
In terms of snow, I’d rather save it for December. In fact, I wonder what the correlation is between chances of a white winter solstice and X-mas when we have snow in November or October? More likely? Less likely? I know having snow on the ground begets more snow if it can stay on the ground (it never does) but that doesn’t really come in to play.
I know this guy can’t be Rolo because he just posted the other day.
http://time.com/4568831/kentucky-weatherman-arson-wildfire/?xid=time_socialflow_twitter
Just an inch of snow would pretty well cripple the forest fire threat. And regardless, winter weather is always fun to dicuss in November.
Oops, I better not mention forest fires or drought on here or we will get the “complaining about no rain will not help” kind of messages that have been popping up lately.
Terry since you’re referring to me, I will say you are severely misconstruing my comments, which is typical of my detractors. I never said not to talk about anything.
Funny that you are calling yourself out. I mentioned no names as I said posts plural.
I’m not calling myself out, genius.
Why replace in the first place then you brilliant individual you.
The Climate Prediction Center is calling for good chances that above average precipitation will occur during the week of November 23-29