A Loaded Pattern Takes Shape

Good Friday, folks. We are rolling our way into the New Year’s Weekend with snow showers and flurries flying across the region. As this moves away, another system moves in with a mix of some rain and snow as we shut the door on 2016. It’s the start of 2017 that keeps looking more and more interesting.

Today’s snow showers and flurries can put down some light accumulations this morning. With temps below freezing, some slick spots may even develop on roads.

The system moving in here for New Year’s Eve keeps looking like a light mix of rain and some snow…


Another system moves through here on Monday with gusty winds and the chance for some thunderstorms.

From there, we watch an arctic front sweeping in here by Wednesday. That should produce a band of light snow and flurries behind it, but the real story tries to come right after that.

The setup continues to see major blocking going up over the top of a DEEP trough going coast to coast across the country…

euroThat setup will feature an active southern storm track that can bring some significant winter weather to parts of the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley  and Mid-Atlantic states. Placement of the axis of winter weather will be different on each model and each model run.

It’s interesting to look at the 21 members of the GFS Ensembles to see how they all have this setup, but differ on placement…


Several of those members have that winter weather axis setting up deep into the south. Where will it ultimately set up? That remains to be seen, but the setup has a good look to it.

This is also a coast to coast very, very cold pattern taking shape…


I will have updates on all this coming later today. Enjoy your Friday and take care.

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21 Responses to A Loaded Pattern Takes Shape

  1. which way is the wind blowing says:

    I hope we our rewarded with some decent snowfall.
    Especially if we have to suffer under all this extreme cold air.

  2. Cameron Fry says:

    Gotta imagine any ensemble member showing a wintry precip axis in the deep south will move in north/northwestward in the days to come. Either way TN/KY look to be a good spot this far out in the game.

    • Troy says:

      Usual rule applies here. A deep south track will likely remain so and give those folks mainly ice. An upper Tennessee Valley low “almost” always moves north (usually northern KY/southern Ohio) leaving TN/most of KY with cold rain. This is a phenomenon which none of the models seem to be able to grasp.

      • BubbaG says:

        This reminds me of the set-up back in 2008. CB was talking about a big event chance and it slowly became more likely we were on the ice side of it. We were. Over an inch of ice and about three inches of snow on top of it. Lost power for five days. Hopefully we are not that side if this, if the models were to become a real system.

        • TennMark says:

          Yea, although think this was early 2009. I was in Evansville IN at the time and it was bad enough there, but areas to the south of me like Madisonville KY were especially devastated.

          February 2008 had the infamous Super Tuesday tornado outbreak that hit Kentucky and Tennessee among other states.

  3. Cold Rain says:

    With the cold air guess we have to be on the lookout for a Suppressed Storm Track… IF anything develop’s..Probably cold and dry…The worst kind of weather there is..

  4. retro fetch says:

    I like Cameron’s take on this. We’ll have to wait and see if it’s snow or ice or both. It’s going to be fun to watch this season unfold. Sure do enjoy the differing opinions and attitudes on here.
    Takes all Kinds to Make a World. Thanks Chris. Go Big Blue!

  5. Terry says:

    Oh I hate those eye candy frames above (LOL)….CB puts these on here only to convey “pattern potential” but they are so pretty to look at and infuriating when reality hits like what happened over the past couple weeks!

    • Bjenks says:

      Trease maps. Same maps posted back in Dec and we got NADA! The good thing is that we are moving into our coldest time of the winter and with artic air and active Southern jet stream our region could be the sweet spot for an oldskool thumping or all other types of wintery precip.

      • Terry says:

        I am on the same page as you. Whether we get what we want for WINTER GOODS or not, I will take active with threats any day over the “California Autumn” we just suffered through. As obsessed with tracking/enjoying the weather as I am, I can’t stand the days of endless sunshine and nothingness that we occasionally endure around. One of my favorite things about being a Kentuckian is the usual active/changeable weather that so many complain about–not this guy:)

  6. jim b says:

    Old Jim B feels a big YAWN coming on for next week, just can’t help it….2 days out, everything looks to be going south, that’s what we will be reading…..fun to build up the “potential” drama though. Old Man Winter, you sneaky devil

  7. Christopher says:

    Sleds purchased. Boots located. Snow bibs found, although a little shorter this year. Kids eager with excitement. Could we have our first snow day/sled day?!? We are hoping and crossing every finger and toe!!!

  8. Bjenks says:

    Thanks for the update CB. I really like where we are headed over the next couple weeks.

  9. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Some ninny will accuse CB of “hype” as usual.

    • Terry says:

      Yeah…it is those who would take the frames above as CB’S forecast without trying to understand the message being conveyed and then get mad when it doesn’t happen!

  10. karen Harshaw says:

    Wow – when all is said and done – December will be an averge month for temps! Who would have predicted that?

  11. Msd87 says:

    Wish people would stop with the north shift, south shift, we are doomed talk etc.. It’s still a week out. Every model run is different. Just compare the GFS 6Z run to the 12z.

    Practically we won’t know the precise track until three days out, because that’s when storms come onto the mainland and we get better data from weather balloons. Only look at the general patterns, which is what Chris has been talking about here…there is potential. Just wait until next Tuesday and it will be clearer.

  12. Shell387 says:

    I just want to see some snow…real snow!
    I fell in love during the 98 snow storm and need another one!
    I’m still in love by the way BUT really need some snow. LOL

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