Monday Midday Update

Good afternoon, gang. Its a busy forecast pattern, so I’m making a quick stop to keep you updated on how things stand for this first week of the new year.

It’s a very mild and windy day out there as temps shoot into the 60s. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region from the southwest later today into tonight. The overall severe threat is pretty low, but there is likely to be a corridor of very heavy rain setting up. This may cause some local high water concerns tonight.

Track away…

Once the arctic front moves in early Wednesday, it’s game on for some fun tracking of a potential winter weather makers. The first comes on Thursday, with a potential bigger system later Friday into Saturday.

That’s the system we find a lot of disagreement on. The GFS continues to have a very healthy system taking a southern track and then into the Mid-Attlatic…


The GFS has a crusher for the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states, with some big snows for parts of Kentucky…


Again, that’s one run of one model. Each and every time you look at a new version of these models, they will change from this far out.

If you believe in the famous north and west trend of systems as we get closer, that’s right where you want this to be at this point.

The GFS Ensembles are also targeting the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states…


The Canadian Model isn’t buying what the GFS is cooking. It brings a swath of 1″-3″ snows across the state on Thursday…


The follow up system then gets crushed…


Why the difference in how the models handle the second system? Much of it may be with how the Thursday system plays out. The weaker that is, the better the chance the follow up system can grow into something big.

The Friday/Saturday system comes from a disturbance forecast to be near Washington state on Thursday. Watch how the GFS takes that across the country and keeps it fairly in tact…


Now, watch how the Canadian Model takes that same system and totally shears it out, leaving nothing in tact…


If you want a big winter storm around here, you want to see that system cross the country and stay in tact. If you don’t want a winter storm, hope it gets crushed by the northern branch of the jet stream digging in.

Which solution will win out? I can’t answer that at the moment, and suspect it won’t be until tomorrow or early Wednesday before the models get a firm grasp on it all.

I will update things later today. Make it a great day and take care.

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56 Responses to Monday Midday Update

  1. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Yes and thanks for the update.

  2. Drew says:

    What is the timing looking like for the first system on Thursday?

    • Msd87 says:

      We are still a ways out. Best not to jump from run to run about the position of the low. Much more important is to figure out if we will have a strong system or a weak one. Question of what happens to the energy in the Northwest. Hopefully that will be resolved tomorrow…

  3. Trisha Boggess Boone says:

    I love when you mention snow for the TN VALLEY!!!!

  4. corey says:

    The northwest trend is real!!!!!

  5. Virgil says:

    Team crush

  6. Mike says:

    This is KYWC at it’s best! Not knowing what will happen or even predicating but letting us know what’s out their, what the possibilities are, what to look out for and how to track it… Great stuff!

  7. corey says:

    Although the nw shift does happen… The southern part of the state is due…so we will see

  8. Terry says:

    We have an over achievement here in SE KY as far as temp today…hit 70 here at the house at 1:20.

    As far as this week goes, how can anyone not be excited with 2 systems on the table???

    Even if we only get a few inches, we have at least our first real snow on the ground with the exception of far northern and NE KY that just had a little one last Friday!

    • Andy Rose says:

      Not got there quite yet in my back yard 67.5

      • Blizzardtim says:

        Wow..Been fog cloudy drizzle way down here in TN VALLEY only made it to 52 so far

        • Terry says:

          Despite realism and negativity, I hope everything pulls through for you later in the week any your area actually gets a “biggie.” I have a lot of former coworkers scattered throughout the Knoxville/Morristown area and would like to see a crushing storm, even though none of them really like snow to my knowledge (LOL)

          • Troy says:

            Very much over due for Knoxville/Morristown area. The last big snow there was the Blizzard of 93. That was a turning point in the climate…up until that snow we would get 2-4 good snows every year, 4″-8″. Since then, the Tennessee Valley is lucky to get one 1″ -2″ snowfall per year.

      • Terry says:

        As bad as the snow drought was in SE KY during the 2000s decade, points southward into TN really have to back to 96 since the last real hit!

    • Andy Rose says:

      Temps has slowly been dropping. Its down to 64.1 now

  9. Wondering says:

    I know this is still a ways out, but I’m not good at understanding the maps and all that… My family is scheduled to go to Pigeon Forge this weekend. Leaving Friday around 3 from Pikeville and travelling back on Sunday at 10. How much of a bad situation are we going to be in? Should I cancel? Help?

  10. EF5snowfall says:

    The gfs is the only one with a real storm.every other model has nothing or a very suppressed low.And we all know how reliable the gfs is.

  11. Prelude says:

    There’s one in every crowd EF5 is just another Debbie Downer.

    • jim b says:

      Come Prelude, some are just reslistic, we have seen this song and dance so many times…it’s good to be optimistic if you’re a snow lover thoufh, I get it…..BTW, yawn meter is holding strong at a 10

      • Prelude says:

        Explain realistic to me if one does not know the true outcome as of yet? The storm hasn’t even been sampled yet? Just for the record I prefer 80 degrees with a slight breeze sitting on the front porch on a rocking chair smelling the honeysuckle with a sweet tea, lemonade or something a little stronger. Riding the motorcycle or playing in a softball game.

        • BubbaG says:


          Watch out though, since very likely the “other” frozen stuff is falling on the mid section track of the system- if the arctic air does not suppress it. Then again, if artic air suppresses, it would be a lighter event.

          • Troy says:

            Don’t worry Bubba. The only ice in this system will be spread somewhere between Atlanta and the mid to southern Tennessee Valley.

        • corey says:

          Prelude you play softball? I play a lot! I’m.actually playing in an indoor tourney in.nichlosville Saturday night

        • jim b says:

          Oh, I know the outcome Prelude, my yawn meter has been on ten since the talk of this system started…

  12. EF5snowfall says:

    Just realalist. Not good if you don’t like a real forecasting probability that go’s against your bias. I’m not a Debbie I have just been down this road to many time.I love snow just as much as any of you.

  13. Drew says:

    Anyone know the timing on the possible 1-3 inches Thursday?

  14. spencerlady says:

    Still foggy out here … it’s unbelievable how long this fog has been hanging around!

  15. which way is the wind blowing says:

    When the Euro,Gfs & Nam our in near agreement that is basically the ballgame.
    Maybe only thing to be settle after that is the exact track of the low.

  16. TennMark says:

    If anything, the SPC has taken the already low severe t-storm potential for Kentucky/Tennessee and reduced the threat even more. But as CB touched on, a few high water issues won’t be out of the question.

    A few lighting strikes are now popping up from about Memphis TN to southern Illinois.

    Nashville news outlets are only showing a few flakes at best for later in the week, but it’s of course too early to know if that GFS run that buries the TN valley will be anything more than eye candy for winter lovers like my wife 😉 . Lots of bated breaths going on!

    • corey says:

      You guys deserve a nice thumping, if of course you like snow…I’m in northeast Kentucky and we have benefited from the NW shift the past couple years…we will see if that’s the case this time around

      • TennMark says:

        Some areas were thumped last season, others not. Nashville itself officially got eight inches snow from that late January 2016 event, but areas just to the south and southeast received far less.

        I think January 2011 was the last time southern Tennessee was really buried…. around 16 inches along the Tennessee-Alabama line. Same storm that shut down Atlanta.

  17. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Thelma Lou has a big to do this Saturday that she’d rather not attend. So that means she’ll probably be going 🙂

  18. EF5snowfall says:

    As I figured the 18z shows low in the gulf not a flake for kentucky and trending tward no snow for Tennessee as cold.

  19. Emerson Biggins says:

    It seems as though the thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast are robbing the moisture from coming up this far North this afternoon.

  20. EF5snowfall says:

    Why is that a terrible run??

  21. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Latest GFS puts nearly all snow south of Kentucky. Always a bridesmaid; if not north, now south 🙁 🙁 Rodger in Dodger

    • BubbaG says:

      That is usually a good thing since if north this early, almost always a miss for Kentucky. Still seems though this could be a “careful what you ask for” event. Not seeing how WAA does not become a factor for part of track- if it even comes together in the first place.

  22. I think EF5snowfall wants snow but wants to get on people nerves of the negative talk. Lol

  23. EF5snowfall says:

    Yes I love snow very much.I just state what I see on models good or surfer coating

  24. EF5snowfall says:


  25. ChattyKathy, Somerset says:

    Hey now! I’ve been telling everyone that will listen to me…I have a brand new “Big Bertha” slow blower. New toy!!! But in all fairness got it because hubby is on hemodialysis. Gotta keep that driveway clear.

  26. ChattyKathy, Somerset says:

    Well that was suppose to say Snow Blower.

  27. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I have no “yawn meter” nor do I throw out baseless accusations of “hype” like some around here. We will get what we get and life will go on either way.

  28. MarkLex says:

    Looking at the NWS forcast for temps late week into the weekend, I’m seeing daytime high temps in Lex mid 20s to upper 30s? To me, that doesn’t seems like strong enough arctic air to suppress a system that far south – so perhaps a northwest shift is possible.

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