Good Tuesday, folks. We have showers and thunderstorms rumbling across the state today as a cold front swings through. The main weather story is about a potential winter weather maker moving in here this coming weekend. It’s a setup we haven’t really seen since last winter.

Today is an active weather day with a line of showers and thunderstorms racing eastward across the state. Damaging winds are possible with this line, especially across the western half of the state. Your tracking toys…

Current Watches
Current Watches

Even without thunderstorms, some 50mph wind gusts are possible.

This doesn’t have a big push of cold coming behind the front, so seasonal temps should be noted on Wednesday. Highs should be deep into the 50s with the 60s waiting to return for Thursday.

This will be a very windy period as we wait for another system to roll across the Ohio Valley on Friday. This system brings mainly showers, but some flakes try to get into the mix.

That is on the leading edge of an arctic air mass spreading out from west to east across the northern half of the country. At the same time, very warm air is taking up residence across the south and southwest. That leads to a storm system to develop across the plains states, along the boundary…

That system will then roll eastward by Saturday into Sunday. The exact path of that low will, obviously, mean all the difference in the world for our weather.

If this thing takes a track across the Tennessee Valley, look out. That could deliver a big winter storm for our region. If it comes farther north and right across the state, that winter storm is off to our north. There’s also the chance to cold is stronger than the models show, crushing the storm system into something rather wimpy.

The GFS continues to show a healthy hit for the Commonwealth…

The new European Model also targets the bluegrass state…

The Canadian Model has a farther south and weaker solution…

Given that it’s only Tuesday, let’s slow our roll and see how the models look over the next few days.

No Midday update today because I have work related travels. I will tweet some thoughts then update things later today.

Have a good one and take care.