Good Tuesday, folks. We have showers and thunderstorms rumbling across the state today as a cold front swings through. The main weather story is about a potential winter weather maker moving in here this coming weekend. It’s a setup we haven’t really seen since last winter.
Today is an active weather day with a line of showers and thunderstorms racing eastward across the state. Damaging winds are possible with this line, especially across the western half of the state. Your tracking toys…
Even without thunderstorms, some 50mph wind gusts are possible.
This doesn’t have a big push of cold coming behind the front, so seasonal temps should be noted on Wednesday. Highs should be deep into the 50s with the 60s waiting to return for Thursday.
This will be a very windy period as we wait for another system to roll across the Ohio Valley on Friday. This system brings mainly showers, but some flakes try to get into the mix.
That is on the leading edge of an arctic air mass spreading out from west to east across the northern half of the country. At the same time, very warm air is taking up residence across the south and southwest. That leads to a storm system to develop across the plains states, along the boundary…
That system will then roll eastward by Saturday into Sunday. The exact path of that low will, obviously, mean all the difference in the world for our weather.
If this thing takes a track across the Tennessee Valley, look out. That could deliver a big winter storm for our region. If it comes farther north and right across the state, that winter storm is off to our north. There’s also the chance to cold is stronger than the models show, crushing the storm system into something rather wimpy.
The GFS continues to show a healthy hit for the Commonwealth…
The new European Model also targets the bluegrass state…
The Canadian Model has a farther south and weaker solution…
Given that it’s only Tuesday, let’s slow our roll and see how the models look over the next few days.
No Midday update today because I have work related travels. I will tweet some thoughts then update things later today.
Have a good one and take care.
Looks like this will be our one and only interesting thing to track within 5 days this winter. Kind of sucks to be honest but I mean for winter weather lovers like me, better late than never?? I would love to at least see more than a toe biter once this “winter.”
06z run this morning of GFS still slams KY! With heavy snow and a foot in most of VA and North Carolina! Here in TN..We’ll watch it blissfully run away to our north..Lol …
The average though appears to be trending weaker, unless I’m looking at it wrongly.
Looks like the models overall appear to be trending with less snow impact. Par for the winter course, but anything more than half an inch is the biggest snow for most of Kentucky. Everything is relative 🙂
Pretty to look at, still not buying it though. It’s shown us in the bullseye too many times this winter and then lost us.
I’m still firmly on board the spring train.
If it does snow, we’re in met spring now and it has zero to do with the winter forecast outlook issued back in November. Whether or not CB does a post mortem on it, that book is now closed along with met winter.
If we can’t have the ‘NCAA’, there’s always the ‘NIT’, like a consolation prize
Watching with hope and interest. If on Friday models show a snow storm, then definitely will be more thrilled. Too many times have seen this days out only to have it miss or fizzle. However, at least there is something to watch.
If we can just get on with real spring weather, Ill accept some snow this weekend..But considering the time change and all, Im all in for Spring and warm weather.
Given how bizarre our weather has been this winter, nothing would surprise me at this point. :-0
This
I have seen it snow as early as October and I have seen it snow as late as May.
It might be spring but that does not mean swimming season is upon us.
A couple things some of us need to be reminded of:
1) Lower snow total trends are to be expected in the wake of hot pink clown maps. Even in favorable winters like 2013-14 & 2014-15, event snow totals were usually less than what guidance suggested 5-7 days out.
2) This is an anomalous pattern for March. Thus, while I think it’s wise to calibrate expectations, that doesn’t mean you have to integrate recency bias into them. Take each system as it comes in light of the evolving teleconnection setup. Much better to take a face value approach than to formulate a personal forecast based on disappointment.
The for reals barometer is if we get a genuine real deal Rolocoaster posts. I miss those and the “friendly critique” by others of the Rolocoaster. Good times.
Hold on there Cameron your using words that’s way over us hill peoples head. You going to have to bring it down a bit. LOL.
BTW, that’s a lot of fancy words for the likely result of another and final miss for the state this winter 🙂
Warm air looks to go wire to wire, just like the Reds in 1990.
Given it snows big or not with temperatures as we have it won’t stay long. But ,I remember well the 30″ we got in march of 93. It can still happen …. No need to fear our friendly weather dude will keep us updated. Thanks Chris!
Not buying into this system, gonna be too warm. If we do get snow, I would think ground temps will still be too warm to be much of an issue?? or no??
If snow rates come down hard enough it absolutely will accumulate.
But would melt quickly I would think, at least on roadways?
12z GFS held serve again heaviest band of snow just south of I-64 along the Parkways with this particular model run.
The noon gfs still shows a healthy snow across most of Ky. The moisture is down slightly but a 4 inch PLUS snow looks to still be in the possibility range. Huntington is forecasting a low of 26 on Saturday morning which would go a long way to lowering ground temps…plus the main snow will be here on Saturday night when accumulation is more possible. Would someone please post the new Euro since Chris is on the road?
We do not want a huge heavy snow, since enough trees are budding now to latch on to the heavy snow more and cause power outages. That said, I do not expect that much from this. Warm air probably will not be denied their complete streak for winter.
Sorry guys, Euro not buying into it, neither am I, just looking at daytime temps. Even if there is an overnight dumping, most of it probably will not stick around long enough to enjoy. Have all snowman accessories ready just in case, so you can take a selfish with him before he becomes a puddle.
Selfie
12z run has shifted south and has northern TN in play now for snow as well…But as someone else has said..It is March,the ground is springtime warm! And that means it’s gonna have to snow pretty hard to overcome that..We shall see..
I don’t care how warm the ground is if snow rates are heavy enough it will overcome the warm ground.
I don’t think anyone is remotely thinking if the snow does occur it will last long. It’s March snow will be gone in a day.
Agree
Winter sometimes likes the late curveball.
I wish a Rolocoaster gets started, so you can convey your appreciation for the ups and downs 🙂
Old school is coming
😉
Spring Fling 2017..
Another model run, another shift south. If every run in the next few days shifts south, the sweet sweet will be Atlanta to Chattanooga. lol
I would be happy to see it continue the southward trend until about Thursday morning then let the famous NW shift do its thing, at least for our southern part of the state anyways:)
The NW trend happens at least about 90% of the time but can occasionally let us down when a really strong arctic high crushes the pending low to the south:(…I don’t think that will be the case with this arctic blast coming as it doesn’t look strong enough but time will tell!
Two years ago today everyone was saying the exact same thing…”I’m not buying it” “not going to happen” “ground will be too warm” “warm air will win out like always” “it will go north” etc etc etc…guess what? Louisville to Cincinatti had 10-15″ Lexington and Richmond area got blasted with 18-25″.
Just saying, March seems to always give us a surprise big snowfall about every 2-3 years. No matter how warm it has been, this is definitely possible.
Noticed the 12z Canadian has the snow in TN as it’s earlier run did..With middle and northern TN getting the heavier snows…
Chris’s latest tweet…
Midday model runs are just a bit south with the weekend snow threat. Southern half of the state now in the zone. Still very early. #kywx
Point perhaps being it is shifting more south, so CB not as enthused for mainly a KY hit. Hence no afternoon update, since trending south. Perhaps a repeat of earlier this winter where south of us got hit with heavy snow.
Well.he did say he wouldn’t be posting any midday updates because of traveling…don’t you read bubba lol
Shhh! That does not support the drama 😉 All joking aside, the trend does appear to be more south like the only other decent chance we had that also hit south of us.
Have not seen the ecmwf yet, but someone said its blasting Northern Tn/Southern KY
We didn’t pay attention to the Canadian all winter, but I guess now it’s the go to model this weekend. Lol
Doesn’t it almost always go north? I hope I am wrong I have been around Bubba to long lol!I miss Rolo too where he’s he he should make an apperance.COME OUT ROLO
I’m still willing to place a bet on a total miss. Just seems like every time we have had this model business showing us stuff DAYS out it does NOT happen. I’m ok with that too. It’ll be hard to put the snow boots back on after I’ve had flip flops on!
Probably more south like earlier this winter. Heavy snow gone in a day (except mountains).
Made it thus far without any snow, hoping to make it the entire winter without any.
18z GFS gives a thumping on the TN/KY border counties from west to east, as well as SE KY and the Knoxville and Morristown, TN metros. The march south continues…
Good!!! You all can have it my interest in snow left me weeks ago.
Almost full blown hype mode, But I’ll wait because the winter has been very disappointing for SE KY snow wise.
Its either gonna go completely south or correct itself back.north like the storms did a couple years ago…I remember it going south then coming back north the closer we get to the weekend
I just hope hope for a big snow near louisville. At least 6 inches to make everything outside look beautiful. After this, I hope spring begins immediately.
How about one “hope”.
Most posts in a long time. Snow chat brings people out to the blog.
Model waffles, waffles….hey IHOP was giving away free pancakes today. My ADD kicking in.
Good to see everyone back. Rolo is MIA. No old school chat.