Good evening, everyone. It’s all eyes on the weekend and the potential for a winter storm to impact the bluegrass state. This system continues to show up a with slight differences from model to model and from run to run. Those small differences can have big impacts on the actual weather where you live.
The current runs of the European and GFS Models are very similar with one another, with the greatest chance for snow across southern Kentucky into northern Tennessee. Here’s the European Model…
The GFS is similar, though just a smidge farther north compared to its earlier run…
The NAM has a north bias with many winter storm systems and is all alone with its current solution…
The snow map is likely very, very, very overdone…
Again, the NAM is usually overdone with precipitation amounts from this range in this kind of setup.
We aren’t done with winter after the weekend. This next system diving in here late Monday into Tuesday continues to get my attention. This can put some snow on the ground for many…
The European Model likes that same setup…
Sigh.
I will have another update later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.
In the midst of my own pity party, I am happy for all of you in southern KY… sigh.
Don’t be too happy for us yet! We may be in 0 column by Saturday…nothing set in stone and definitely not looking like the advertised storm that was healthy a few days ago!
Good. Time for spring. Its been a great winter so far.
Go Nam Go!
I know right
I really think spring is here..we might get some festive flakes or a light coating, but I think our chances of a big snow are over,
So sad
Potentially another disappointment
I’m ready for spring/summer!!! I’m praying the storm goes south!!! The weather today was awesome. I hiked 4 miles today! I’m so ready for hiking, flowers and sunshine.
Whoever gets snow, it doesn’t really matter because it won’t stick around. I prefer those snow storms when you have a lot of cold hanging around keeping everything white for a week or so and everything looks so wintery..as opposed to a quick snow that’s gone in a day. This is by far the worst winter since I moved here in 1996, and there have been quite a few bad winters in those years. Good thing we had the last few years that made up for it. March isn’t over yet though, and even occasional crazy things can happen in April. I remember one April here in Lexington we had a northwest flow and snow showers that produced quick white out conditions. I think it was like the mid 2000’s
Yeah, real April snow storms are rare but happen ever so often. I was too young to Remember the one in the late 80s but my family told me Harlan had over 2 feet which melted in like 3 days….crazy…data shows that the storm even hit down in Knoxville in April!
Yea, that was around April 3 1987. Birmingham had its latest measurable snow on record (yes, Birmingham AL). Northeastern parts of Alabama got up to nine inches, and as you touched on eastern parts of Tennessee and Kentucky really got a dumping. I was only about four at the time so I also have no real memory of this event, perhaps in part because it melted so fast.
This big snow per chance happened exactly 13 years after the so-called Super Outbreak of tornadoes (April 3 1974).
http://www.weather.gov/jkl/198704_snowstorm
I have relatives near Huntsville AL. They say residents in northern and central Alabama have dubbed this event as the “Dogwood Snow” 😛 .
The big positive in the pattern change regardless of the snow is the slowing down of near record early blooming of many trees which will (HOPEFULLY) prevent another 2007 blackout, although some fruit trees are already paying the price.
Many have been posting pictures through social media claiming the Dogwoods are already blooming in error as they are pics of Bradford pears, Magnolias and such but may be blooming soon if this cold weather doesn’t last long!
Seems the more south the weaker and less snow- unless in the mountains.
Hope things are good my old friend… Least you didn’t have to shovel that long drive way this year! Hope all is well…
Meh. I think this a non-event. Which suits me fine. Spring is hopefully (mostly) here to stay. Few cold spells. Maybe some festive flakes. But other than that, nothing to see.
If somebody can report on the nam run coming up here in a few minutes.
That would be great.
It’s south of the previous run. Southern KY gets a good snow.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017030900&fh=81&xpos=0&ypos=431
So much for the north trend.
Extremely disappointing year here in Louisville.
Not understanding the complaints, the NAM is showing southern Ky as the bullseye but at the same time the NAM is showing snow for most of Kentucky.
Thanks, msd87. You beat me to it.
NAM is now starting a southern trend, more in line with European and GFS.
My winter loving wife is overjoyed at the prospect of snow 😉 . Both Nashville and Bowling Green have only had seven tenths of an inch snow this season.
TennMark I know what you mean. We’ve been a little luckier here in Knoxville, we squeezed a couple of inches out of that storm in January, but otherwise it’s been a dull winter. If I remember correctly Nashville has had some bad luck of late (for snow lovers) . So I hope y’all get some white stuff out of this system.
Nashville actually got about 8 inches (at least officially) on January 22 2016. Even more snow north of town/northern Davidson County that day, but rapidly dropping to about 4 inches in the southern end of Davidson County. About 7 inches at my house.
Nevertheless, Nashville has otherwise missed out on may other snows before 2016. Although Nashville did have a White Christmas in 2010, the city only got about 3 inches in early January 2011 even when part of the Tennessee/Alabama line got 16 inches!
I was in Bowling Green KY in January 2011; I don’t think there was a single flake from that storm in Bowling Green!
The week away storms on the models always look good. Then they disappear or miss us. Next Tuesday shouldn’t be any different. This is just an all around bad year.
Why all the doom and gloom? Looks like a decent chance a good part of the state will at least double your total snowfall of the season as the majority of us have had less than an inch . lol Granted, some folks will likely miss out completely while others “might” hit the jackpot.
Knoxville channels giving 3-6″ for Middlesboro Saturday night.
Which channel?
Go figure, no snow in Jan, no snow in Feb. and then boom a substantial snowfall in mid March!! And it goes south… Central ky is like Poor ol Charlie Brown that gets the football jerked away from him when he goes to punt it.
true?
It is going to snow somewhere in the state this weekend.