Good afternoon, gang. I don’t have a ton of time, so lets hit the high points of the forecast going forward. Obviously, most people are enamored by the chance for snow this weekend. My overall thoughts have not changed on that with the best chance being across southern parts of the state.
Before I get to that, there is the threat for some strong or local severe storms later today in far western Kentucky…
Today’s risk area
Those showers and storms work across the state tonight with colder air coming in for Friday. That cold air then sets the stage for a wave of low pressure to develop and roll eastward with snow on the northern side of it.
The models really now match up well with the risk area map I made for WKYT-TV yesterday. That showed the far southern counties into Tennessee as having the best risk for accumulating snow.
The NAM snow map…
The GFS is even lighter with the snow…
The Canadian agrees…
Once again… southern Kentucky has the best chance or putting some wet snow on the ground. Even here, I’m not thinking this will get to a threat level event.
I’ve also said I’m much more intrigued by the system coming late Monday and Tuesday. This one can really amplify and cause some travel issues in our region…
I will have the latest snow potential from both systems on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Another update will come your way this evening.
Have a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris. We will be watching.
Yeap… it’s gonna snow somewhere…
…and before that, an isolated threat of a severe t-storm or two in western parts of KY and TN. Strong damaging winds are the threat with the higher risk. Low tornado threat.
If it’s not one thing, it’s another.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/record-late-season-snowfalls-redux
I went ahead and reposted this for you as I know you are big on data like I am TennMark….let me know your thoughts on the “year without a summer”….
It’s gonna rain somewhere…
No threats this year:( Even if there is a little amplification of the next storm, it still will not likely be a threat either…boo..let’s move away from this terrible March and let winter die!
I agree, Although next Tuesday we could get a full blown backside flurry alert.
Or a festive flakes fiasco!
Warm air aloft. Low totals f
For those that do get snow. My thoughts.
I don’t wanna give up on winter, but this makes it hard
I got sucked into this “snowstorm” lol. Winter weather models are by and large garbage. Fantasy land.
Even here in a Southern county, I don’t think anyone is excited. The biggest buzz i’ve heard, is folks are worried about the March flowers. This late in the gameThelma Lou has nothing but Spring on her mind.
Looks like we might need to get Kentucky commerce to market us again as a Snow-Free state 😉
Not enough cold for the first or second system to get excited about snow accumulations I would think.
Move along, nothing to see here folks, besides 1 or 2 inches of wet slush (if you live in S/KY or N/TN). Mon/Tues system looks a little more promising. It might fall through as well. This just isn`t Kentucky snow lovers year… Maybe next year folks! 😉
You sound like Rolo haha!
😉
I’m so bummed!!!
Of all things…for “our” KY storm to move south. The audacity. Come back snowstorm, you’re off track!
So TN/NC gets their 2nd decent snow of the year, and SE KY will likely miss out on both of them.
The blog should eliminate all talk of any 7 day away storm and instead wait until 2 days before to mention anything related to snow. This would eliminate all suspense followed by the inevitable letdown.
While it is disappointing for snow lovers to not get the big hit, it is intriguing to read what CB sees upcoming and his discussions on possible scenarios. I would rather know what could be and see how it plays out than not know at all. However, I have learned to never act like a supposed snowstorm is set in stone four days out. Even with this one, we just wait until Friday and see what is coming.
My point. You will see how it could be 7 days out but you know what the outcome will be .
Appreciate the comments… But don’t read if you don’t like. And did you sleep through the past 3 winters and the historic snowstorms?
Never said I didn’t like the blog , I’ve been a loyal follower since its inception and have always tried to be polite in posting. not sure why drew your ire but so be it. Dissapointed
I am not sure which “you” you mean here, but personally, I love reading what all of the possibilities and what various models show as well as your accompanying descriptions and analysis. I do, however, as a snow lover, in order to protect myself mentally (lol) choose to save excitement until I know a snowstorm is upon us. That’s more of a self-serving method to prevent SLLD (snow lovers let-down).
Sorry, Mike. The reason most of us look at this site is because we want a 7 day or even longer view. We understand the variability from reality that occurs from 7 days out but watching the evolution of the storms and meteorologist thinking is what intrigues us.
Most of us know the risk, and this blog isn’t our only source of model discussion. I really enjoy Cb’s post, and hope it never changes.
12z GFS shows the snow chance has all but moved out of KY into TN. Honestly, I’m okay with no snow but this does mean the setup continues to trend colder which doesn’t bode well for plants that have come out of hibernation (I’m looking at you, hydrangeas!). Bring on Spring…
The more south the less snow unless in mountains. Seems a few inches of slushy stuff.
We could have seen 8-10″ of heavy snow if went over Kentucky. Last maybe two days, but wild none the less.
LEX18’s Tom Ackerman clearly throwing shade toward someone on his facebook post.
“This is numerical model output- not a forecast. I’m using it to make a point. You’re looking at the latest run of the GFS- its projected snowfall for the round inbound this Saturday. This is the very same model that was showing 9” to almost a foot of snow across the area three days ago.
We’re in the age of instant sharing of information which is a good thing- but many times it lacks the proper context to explain it. Years ago this is something we’d look at to base a forecast on but never dream of showing on the air. Clearly, for some, that has changed. “I’m not SAYING this is going to happen… BUT LOOK AT THIS!”
Those crazy high totals have been bouncing around social media and I’ve been asked repeatedly why I haven’t been showing them. The reason- credibility matters. One extreme model run 4-5 days out is not a forecast and has a very good chance of being dead wrong. Makes for great buzz but in my opinion is tantamount to meteorological click bait- of little to no practical value. Stick with a source you trust and be critical of where you’re getting your weather information.”
I gave Ackerman and Meck a piece of my mind on Twitter. @kydodger
I asked Ackerman on his FB post who he was directing that at and I don’t expect a response
Are they being taken out of context? Common sense this is a blog and CB is just point out the models and his thoughts. Only the short term memory folks here could be naive enough to fall for the models, cherry pick the favorable ones and parrot them to others as a forecast.
No offense to the short term memory peeps.
Mr. Bailey is always up front about how he’s just sharing models..he never makes a call for snowfall until he’s sure.
I figure this is a blog server someone has to pay for, so of course they’re going to want people to visit it and be active on it, so weather forecasts are shared from days out. Sometimes what looks like a big storm turns into nothing (like it has all winter.
Maybe the early snow maps are click bait, but who cares? It’s fun to follow! It’s exciting to see what the weather will do from day to day.
I don’t feel the early calls are bad at all or ruins anyone credibility because Mr Bailey is always upfront and honest about what he’s sharing.
Wow, frost/freeze program already started.. Guess one will have to be issued everyday in the foreseeable future because there is a lot of freezing temps left to get through.
its funny how the weather models can pretty much predict severe tstorms or rainy weather a week out ,and be pretty much dead on ,but are so off with winter weather. its rarely right even 4 or 5 days out
I agree! So strange!
What I do not understand is why people feel they get “hyped” in the first place? Chris Bailey and his team do more to provide us with not only a forecast, but also the data behind the forecast along with tentative projections of the weather. Their intent is purely informative. We are supposed to take what information they give us so we can make plans. Im not sure how or why people choose to turn what they give us FOR FREE, and some how twist it into an emotional response. When I hear people say they are in “suspense” or feel “let down” or “disappointed” and think that their message delivery needs to change, the only thing that goes through my head is WHAT?? Kentucky is blessed to have Chris Bailey and his team so willing to provide us with the data we need and the knowledge which to derive for ourselves plans for our outside activities.
Adding insult to injury, Nam buries TN
I prefer not having a foot of heavy snow. Prefer my power on and being mobile over that stuff. Warm air needs to be accounted for since the more south the less snow with this. Mountains though, all bets off.
If over Kentucky we would probably see at least 8″ to 10″ or more.
Let’s be honest. We already know the websites to visit for these maps if Chris ever retires! And yes, we will (and do) go to those websites because we are hooked on this stuff. This website allows us to share our thots, especially during a storm, and also provides a meteorologist’s opinion to help keep us from going too crazy with our own thoughts. Last, please note Chris never went to a threat mode on this storm. That tells us it never made it to the serious stage with him. It didn’t make it to the serious stage with most of us either….tho we hoped!
All the pent up chaos. Warm air laughs at Kentucky and looks to go wire to wire in victory.
Fine by me. 😉
Unless this thing jogs back to the north 70 miles, nobody in Kentucky is going to get much at all.
Nothing is impossible.
No matter what type of weather is being predicted, we still faithfully watch and read you here in WV! Thanks Chris!
Yes!
Natl. Weather prognosis.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/national_forecast/natfcst.php?day=3