Old Man Winter Fights Back

Good Friday, everyone. We have a major pattern change blowing into town this weekend as March takes on a heart of winter look and feel for much of the country. This pattern will be multiple hard freezes to go along with a few snow chances over the next week.

Let’s begin with our Friday then look ahead.

Morning showers scoot away with sunny skies returning. Winds will be gusty as colder air moves in with highs only in the 40s.

Even colder air moves in this weekend as a winter weather maker sweeps eastward across the Tennessee Valley. This means the best snow chance stays in Tennessee with the potential for some light snows across the southern half of Kentucky.

Here’s the new NAM snow map…

That shows accumulating snow into northern sections of Alabama, Georgia and into the Carolinas. The GFS also shows snow into the south…

Again, the farther north you are in Kentucky, the better the chance of seeing nothing. The farther south, the better the chance of picking up on some light accumulations.

From there, we turn out attention toward a big time dip in the jet stream across the east…

The models all develop a massive east coast winter storm and show Kentucky potentially getting in on some of the outside action…

Lows behind that storm can get absolutely frigid. The GFS by Wednesday morning…

As someone who wants spring to go ahead and take off, I do not approve of this message. 🙂

Updates later today. Make it a great Friday and take care.

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44 Responses to Old Man Winter Fights Back

  1. which way is the wind blowing says:

    Typical forecast here in Kentucky ” On the Edge”

    • BubbaG says:

      Just like the 16 years before the previous two winters. Our Old School is now little snow for a season. It is what it is. Next week will not be much if any in regards to snow around here. Different story north east of us.

  2. Bobt says:

    Middle Tennessee and Alabama going to get more snow than KY this winter. Just been one of those years. Bring spring.

  3. SpaceGhost says:

    Myrtle Beach has a better chance of seeing snow than we do…. lol.

  4. Steve says:

    It will snow somewhere in KY…

  5. DJC says:

    Cold with snow in March is fun. Cold with nothing else in March stinks.

  6. winter lover says:

    we went from a bulleyes to a no show. LOL

  7. Jimbo says:

    Backside flurry alert next Tuesday. Frigid dry cold in March is really a downer.

  8. Troy says:

    I believe it was Monday that I stated here that the bulls eye would end up as far south as somewhere between Chattanooga and Atlanta. If the 06Z models hold true, seems I hit the nail on the head…

  9. laura says:

    It’s same old story everytime! [WAKE UP AMERICA]

  10. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Rodger’s momma said if you can’t say something nice don’t say anything at all. It’s been a Lucy pulling the football away type of winter for us. Rodger in Dodger

  11. BubbaG says:

    Respectfully to folks that follow this blog, nobody to blame but yourself if you bought into the recent models. They have a 0% accuracy rate with snow for a week out all winter.

    CB has had to try and make lemonade Icees out of lemons all winter, but no snow to make them. Just models with virtually no snow results.

    Still it is wild having the three record breaking snows in less than a year and then virtually nothing. Similar to the 2012 Championship Cats going to the NIT in 2013…. Nah, even the Cats comparison is higher level than going from big snows to nothing.

    • Troy says:

      THIS 100% ^^^^^^^^^^^^

    • LD says:

      People, especially in the age of FB, want to only believe what they want to believe.

      Did you know that the main data scientist behind the GFS model used an early precursor of machine learning and advanced computational algorithms to predict 10 years ago that The Big Show would slim down and even have abs now? Look it up! It’s totally true! So great!

      Actually, it’s not true but you *want* it to be true. Hell, in this case, I do too. Heh.

  12. C in BG says:

    So you mean to tell me that the GFS from 4-5 days ago was wrong?!
    Gasp! That`s so unprecedented. I can`t believe it! I was expecting a foot of snow this weekend. 😉 …… Well, on to spring.

  13. Lucy says:

    One Indianapolis television station’s weather Monday had Indy getting 12″ of snow. My husband showed me that, and we both said, “wait until Friday”. Models are just that–models. Even the day of a storm models can be off. To me, the progression of models is fascinating, and one reason I read this blog.

  14. Wes says:

    Any possible movement north for tomorrow

  15. Wes says:

    I’ve been tracking my sleep…even by myself I’m not sleeping well…

  16. Ricvice says:

    Welcome to “edgeington”, Ky. Home of the best horses,bourbon and head hanging snow loving central ky people. On the edge to the north on the edge to the south. And all we are left with is a freeze warning. Just enough to kill all the already to early bloomed fruit trees, guess if there is a good side maybe it will cut down some on emerging bugs.

  17. Terry says:

    OUCH! All of the nights with 10s and 20s even going into the deep south should hurt the fruit some this year…thankfully, all of these hard freezes are coming earlier than in 2007 when virtually everything was zapped!

  18. Claudette says:

    I’m glad I knew better than to get excited!

  19. Lucy says:

    Dry air will not allow the flakes to fly, but we will see. Sometimes we get surprised.

  20. Teacher Nate says:

    Stay south! My softball field is finally getting dry enough for the girls to get some work in. The field can handle the cold…just not the snow. Any snow (even next week) and it will take another 3-4 days to dry off as cold as it is supposed to get.

  21. Jimbo says:

    The models and maps that I have seen today, look like we are going to be missed next week also. Storm will be too far north and east. Maybe some rain then dreaded backside flurries at the most.

    • Terry says:

      It is sad but true this year: We never even received much of the dreaded backside flurries…sad indeed but we will live:)

  22. Schroeder says:

    Best chance for snow is on the 15 and 16 th.

  23. Sarah says:

    Thank goodness the storm is going south. I prayed hard it would. I’m ready for spring.

  24. Troy says:

    And what have we all learned from this latest model fiasco? Nothing… Whether it be next week or next season, the next time the GFS throws a monster our way from a week out we will all hang on every run and to hope, only to be let down in the end once more. It’s honestly, quite comical. Would have made a great Seinfeld episode! lol

    • Bobt says:

      I would much rather of had the storm miss north. Would of made for a much nicer day in the state. No fun in cold March days.

  25. Jw Bryant says:

    Looks likes I gona haves ta cut me a couple more loads of good ole heat

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