Tracking The Heavy Rain Threat

Good Saturday, everyone. We have a heckuva setup taking shape across Kentucky over the next few days. A stalled out front combine forces with Hurricane Nate, and bring significant rainfall to much of Kentucky. This may lead to high water issues developing for some areas.

Tropical moisture is increasing quickly today as southwesterly winds scream into the region. Scattered showers and storms will then develop from west to east this afternoon into the evening…

When I see a front stalling out and tropical moisture moving in, my flash flood antenna goes up. Showers and storms will increase tonight into Sunday and focus along and just ahead of our front. This setup can spit out several inches of rain in localized areas, potentially leading to flash flooding. Here’s the area I’m most concerned with before Nate arrives…

Much of that is from tropical moisture well ahead of Nate. Our strengthening storm continues to push quickly toward the gulf coast…

This storm may be strengthening beyond the NHC forecast as it comes ashore later tonight…

cone graphic

I still think that inland track is too far east and many of the short range models agree with me. Watch the Hi Res Nam take Nate over top of us…

Nate may be a Tropical Storm as far north as Tennessee and a Tropical Depression on top of Kentucky.

Overall rainfall numbers across Kentucky will be hefty through early Monday…

Slight deviations with the placement of the stationary front and the track of Nate can push those lines a little east or west, but several inches of rain will likely fall for many areas. The entire region will need to be on guard for high water issues as Nate passes.

We will also need to be on guard for strong storms and heavy rain later Tuesday into Wednesday as another system moves in here.

For early October, this is about as active of a pattern that you can get around here. We’ve been talking about a very busy pattern taking shape and here she comes.

I will update things later today, so check back.

Make it a great day and take care.

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8 Responses to Tracking The Heavy Rain Threat

  1. TA says:

    Thank you.

  2. Chris Bowles says:

    Guidance shows 4.5 inches is needed before flash flooding will occur, based on soil moisture levels. Do you agree?

  3. feederband says:

    Good deal CB. Where are the 70’s? Looks like nothing but “I love the 80’s” this week.

  4. Bob says:

    My part of eastern Ky. Is dry as a bone. We could use 2-3 inches of rain. The creeks are nearly dried up

  5. Cameron Fry says:

    Bring it on! My yard could use the rain.

  6. Cold Rain says:

    Nate dog moving rather quickly..A speed demon..

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