Good Saturday, everyone. We have a heckuva setup taking shape across Kentucky over the next few days. A stalled out front combine forces with Hurricane Nate, and bring significant rainfall to much of Kentucky. This may lead to high water issues developing for some areas.
Tropical moisture is increasing quickly today as southwesterly winds scream into the region. Scattered showers and storms will then develop from west to east this afternoon into the evening…
When I see a front stalling out and tropical moisture moving in, my flash flood antenna goes up. Showers and storms will increase tonight into Sunday and focus along and just ahead of our front. This setup can spit out several inches of rain in localized areas, potentially leading to flash flooding. Here’s the area I’m most concerned with before Nate arrives…
Much of that is from tropical moisture well ahead of Nate. Our strengthening storm continues to push quickly toward the gulf coast…
This storm may be strengthening beyond the NHC forecast as it comes ashore later tonight…
I still think that inland track is too far east and many of the short range models agree with me. Watch the Hi Res Nam take Nate over top of us…
Nate may be a Tropical Storm as far north as Tennessee and a Tropical Depression on top of Kentucky.
Overall rainfall numbers across Kentucky will be hefty through early Monday…
Slight deviations with the placement of the stationary front and the track of Nate can push those lines a littleĀ east or west, but several inches of rain will likely fall for many areas. The entire region will need to be on guard for high water issues as Nate passes.
We will also need to be on guard for strong storms and heavy rain later Tuesday into Wednesday as another system moves in here.
For early October, this is about as active of a pattern that you can get around here. We’ve been talking aboutĀ a very busy pattern taking shape and here she comes.
I will update things later today, so check back.
Make it a great day and take care.
Thank you.
Guidance shows 4.5 inches is needed before flash flooding will occur, based on soil moisture levels. Do you agree?
Good deal CB. Where are the 70’s? Looks like nothing but “I love the 80’s” this week.
Yeah looks like the cooler weather that was forecast last week has been put on hold.
As long as we can drop that trend by the hoildays, I will be happy. I hate the warm holiday weather we have had the last few years.
My part of eastern Ky. Is dry as a bone. We could use 2-3 inches of rain. The creeks are nearly dried up
Bring it on! My yard could use the rain.
Nate dog moving rather quickly..A speed demon..