Tracking A Super Active Week Ahead

Good Sunday, folks. The weather pattern for the upcoming week is about to kick it up a notch or ten. We have several systems to track, including the potential for a late week severe weather maker. This leads us into a much more winter looking setup as we turkey roll our way into Thanksgiving week.

Today will feature lots of clouds with scattered showers developing from west to east. This action isn’t overly impressive, but looks like a nuisance rain this afternoon and evening. Track away on regional radar…

Clouds will linger into Monday with seasonally chilly temps.

Another cold front quickly approaches the state by Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will have more widespread rains than what we have out there today, but the totals will diminish the farther east it gets…

From there, it’s time to focus on a big storm system working into the region Friday into Friday night. This system will have a temp spike ahead of it, with a temp crash behind it. Winds are going to be VERY gusty and we face the potential for storms…

Cold winds have a chance to catch up to the back edge of the departing rains, and that may be something for us to keep an eye on. A blast of winter air follows for the weekend…

The European Model continues to show massive blocking developing in all the right places if you want winter weather in the eastern half of the country…

That’s pretty amazing to see at any time of the year, let alone in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. The end result on the same run of the European Model is to bring another cold blast in here early Thanksgiving week…

If that setup does develop, some winter threats may also come calling into the eastern half of the country.

The GFS Ensembles agree with the overall theme of the European Model. Watch the cold shot next weekend and the one that carries us into Thanksgiving week/weekend…

This upcoming week is winter weather week on WKYT-TV, with my winter forecast coming Thursday during the 6pm news. Nothing wrong with a shameless plug. 🙂

Speaking of winter, it’s interesting to see the new seasonal run of the European Model. The height anomalies (not temperature) show a front loaded winter with a healthy trough across our part of the world…

You can clearly see how the trough pulls back west, allowing a big ridge to develop across the east and southeast. Taken verbatim, that’s a colder than normal December and January with a warmer than normal February and March.

Precipitation anomalies increase with each passing month…

That’s a healthy signal for a ton of precipitation around here and is something I have already touched on countless times before.

The European is saying we have nice run of winter weather for December and January, but show an abrupt end to that for February and March. This run would argue for heavy rain and strong storms threats during this time.

I can neither confirm nor deny that the above model is close to my own winter forecast. 😉

Another update comes your way later today, so check back. Have a great Sunday.

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29 Responses to Tracking A Super Active Week Ahead

  1. B H says:

    I’ll take that warmer February and March.

  2. MarkLex says:

    I would agree – it’s rare to have cold/snowy winters the entire winter, Dec, Jan, Feb.. Even the worst winter 1917/18, from what I read, it was horrible Dec/Jan but Feb/Mar wasn’t so bad. When we had 40 inch seasonal snow in 2014/15, that happened in Feb/Mar – nothing really in Dec/Jan.
    Chris – a while back you mentioned video blog posts sometimes but I’ve yet to see it. Hope you haven’t changed your mind on that.

  3. Schroeder says:

    These European models presented in Chris’s blog were released November first, and to believe this is what it’s going to be this winter is to be taken with a large grain of salt. But, if December and January are colder than normal it will most likely be dry due to the lack of a subtropical jet stream in the positive phase to react to the polar jet in the negative phase. February and March usually warms up anyway and they are our snowiest months. Nobody knows for sure. But, if that forecast for December and January pans out, you might want to invest in a generator before Christmas. That cold air looks shallow to me and that could bring an ice storm if we have any over running moisture from a warm front to our south.

  4. Schroeder says:

    As for the week ahead, there seems to be a zonal flow from the Pacific, bringing in fast moving weakening fronts with very little precipitation and near normal high and low temperatures. A good week to rake the fallen leaves off the lawn and to bring in the garden hose.

    • Prelude says:

      Schroeder, do you even bother to read CB’s headline? It specifically states “Tracking a super active week ahead” It does not say weakening fronts and little precipitation. The Friday night system looks to be pretty dynamic the wind fields are very impressive. Depending on timing could be a active severe weather day.

      • Schroeder says:

        Everybody has their own way of interpreting what the weather may be.

        • Prelude says:

          You honestly just need to start your own blog and just go somewhere else. This armchair meteorologist thing you have going on in your head you have taken to the deep end.

          • Schroeder says:

            I don’t have the education to start a weather blog. I would have to go back to school and earn a masters degree in Meteorology. I don’t have the money for that because I am on a fix income. I don’t want to take out a loan either, I guess I waited too long and I am too old anyway. I turn 66 tomorrow. It’s hell getting old.

        • Jeff Kidd says:

          Schroeder I don’t even know why you come on here since you think you are so much smarter than anyone else here including Chris himself. Just go and make your own blog somewhere since you seem to disagree with everything Chris says. You are obviously too smart for this blog and we all are just simpletons.

          • Schroeder says:

            That statement is not true. I like everyone on Chris’s blog. I just tell the weather as I see it on various models I study. I know a lot of times I don’t agree with Chris, but that does not mean I don’t respect him and all his great work and education in Meteorology. I can’t help the way my post read and sound, that’s just the way I was taught to write.

  5. Evan says:

    COMON Chris! Us winter lovers want more than just 3 months of winter! #GlobalWarmingSucks

  6. Andy Rose says:

    I wasn’t really expecting 50s this morning

  7. Mallory says:

    I just need snow days in January! I would settle for five of them! Lol

    Teacher + pregnant and due beginning of Jan = praying for snow days!

  8. Sue(Flatwoods, ky) says:

    I am traveling to Gatlinburg Tenn the day after Thanksgiving! Will the chance of Snow affect my travels! Thanks

  9. Schroeder says:

    Chris, I know it’s not Mega Block, it’s Omega block. Just correcting a mistake made on that model you presented in your blog this morning.

    • bob says:

      Seriously? It is immature and childish to pick on someone for typos. Maybe he meant mega as in a “large” block. If he said omega… it would not of meant much of anything to the average reader. Maybe you should look into Chris’ audience rather than worrying about his terminology, or just go troll somewhere else please.

  10. 37.89°N 84.36°W says:

    Cheesh! Schroeder you are the MOST irritating fellow. My Surviving Schroeder strategy has been to rapidly scroll through your haughty, inane, and self-referencing comments. But occasionally I get a glimpse and grit my teeth in an attempt to be tolerant, but buddy– you push the limits!

  11. Schroeder says:

    It seems that I have upset and depress a lot of commentators today on
    Chris’s blog. I am sorry for this. I have my own mine as the way I express my opinion about the weather. I don’t seem to realize this till someone comes out and tells me that I was rude. I have no alternative but to terminate my comments. I know all of you have heard this before, and I keep returning to the blog. It’s an addiction, that I can’t seem to break. I have the solution, it’s a way where I can’t access Kentucky Weather Center ever again and I will in time just forget. You have your blog back. After I sign off, I will not be able to pull up this site again. Good by and may God Bless all of you.

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