Friday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. We continue to track a major rain maker into the bluegrass state this weekend. It’s a setup likely to lead to, at least, some local high water issues developing.

The Flood Watch remains in effect for the same areas through Sunday…

Rainfall totals in these areas will likely range from 2″-4″, with an outside chance for higher amounts showing up. Folks living in a low-lying or flood prone area should be alert to the potential of flooding in the coming days.

The European Model still shows some frozen precip on the backside of the late weekend system…

The pattern remains active late next week into the following weekend. There’s a lot of variability showing up in the pattern. Another heavy rain event or a winter weather threat? The new GFS likes the winter aspect…

Let’s get back to the present setup. Here are your radars to track the rain toward Kentucky from the southwest…

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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17 Responses to Friday Evening Update

  1. Virgil says:


    • Admiral Ackbar says:


    • Cold Rain says:

      #TeamSpring ready for peas..Hopefully it will dry up in a few weeks..Soggy forecast though for the next few weeks..

      • Admiral Ackbar says:

        I think the whole “April showers brings May flowers” saying will become our literal life starting this month. Excellent. No more snow. Thank, God!

        • winter lover says:

          Admiral don’t bet it on it, you may end up eating your words. I have seen our biggest snow makers happen in late February and March

          • Debbie says:

            Looks like a fairly decent mild break for the next week or so, but feel like the bottom will fall out toward the end of the month going into March. I’ve got photo’s of me and our two doggies out in an early March snow that if I remember correctly, was around 10″+. We had just gotten our Keeshond pup on Valentine’s Day 2008 right after a big snow, and in the one in March, all you could see of her in the snow was the little curly tail sticking up out of it!

            • Admiral Ackbar says:

              Fair enough, but I specifically referred to the “April showers bring May flowers” statement more in reference to April rather than March. Wait, with that said, Beware the Ides of March.

          • Admiral Ackbar says:

            Maybe I will eat my own words, but in the words of the great Hillary Clinton, “What difference does it make?” If I am right, I am right. If I am wrong, I am wrong. I am not making any predictions or trying to say what will happen. Regardless of what I say, it is of no consequence to what actually happens.

          • Admiral Ackbar says:

            Maybe so, but I specifically mentioned the April showers. February and March were not part of the equation, Love.

  2. which way is the wind blowing says:


  3. Mike says:

    I want to believe the snow but have been disappointed again and again and again… It seems we can nail the weather three of four seasons but the science just isn’t there for the fourth.

  4. Admiral Ackbar says:

    To everyone complaining about how the “models are wrong”, let me leave the following with you.

    Actually, the SCIENCE is always there; it is the science that truly is responsible for any and all observed weather. It is OUR scientific models that consider probabilities rather than absolutes that has been giving Kentucky the issues in 2018. We KNOW what causes rain. We KNOW what causes snow. We KNOW what causes wind. We KNOW what causes the temperature to change. We KNOW what factors influence the density and pressure of the air in different regions of the planet. We KNOW how Newton’s Laws, the Laws of Thermodynamics, The Law of Universal Gravitation, The Ideal Gas Law (and Non-Deal version as studied in P-Chem), and we know how Bernoulli’s principles govern the movement of matter in fluids. Mike, we KNOW all of this stuff, and we KNOW the cause of the factors that influence weather. The models, based on the statistical probabilities, are limited in that they can only provide a prediction based on a percentage of how they THINK a system will form and move. These models, while always helpful, are less accurate as the time between the model and the event increases. Do we not remember when a hurricane was supposed to clobber Miami back in the Fall, but it end up affecting the west side of Florida after changing course 10.0 hours out from the storm? See, the water temperature, air temperature, air densities, and differentials of atmospheric conditions are fluid, are heavily complicated, and truly take post-doctoral studies to really even BEGIN to understand how a single particle moves under the influence of forces within a fluid such as air and water.

    Folks, models are not based on “it gon’ snow” or “it not gon snow” or if Chris Bailey had his favorite breakfast in the morning. Even today, weather models are much better at predicting weather than even five years ago. I bet some of you old farts remember back when the “Weather Girl” placed “stickers” on the weather map to indicate where the country would be sunny and where it would be raining. We now have the technology to model, in three dimensions, in real time, the shape, size, and power of a storm as it is traveling across the land. These models are built on the data of previous weather systems, and these models are being refined each day, each hour, each minute, and each second that new data is added to the model’s tables of values.

    I know that it is fun to sit back, look at the models that Chris provides, and act like you are arm-chair meteorologists. However, at the end of the day, your “accurate estimation” of what will happen is insignificant to individuals who read the models as career. If any of you truly consider yourself gifted in “reading, understanding, and predicting” from weather models, then Chris Bailey would be considered the Albert Einstein of the room while you are simply a pretender. Bottom line, there is a reason that some Oceanic and Atmospheric Scientists are making around $750,000 a year while you are at home drawing your Gubmint Check hoping for snow so that it shuts down an entire community so that people who depend on work cannot even go out and make an honest day of living. This is why some of you are pulling in about $22,000 per year complaining every single time that the models do not call for snow.

    Let the rain go away! We do not want floods! We do not want the creeks a risin’. We do not want icky, muddy ground! Nooooooo. Bring on the BIG SNOW so that people without four-wheeled drive vehicles cannot even leave the driveway. Go ahead. Keep calling for the big one while you simultaneously call for the noose of Chris Bailey. I love this place, but I have not seen this much whining, complaining, and eye rolling over the lack of snow since the Presidential Election of 2016.

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