A Mild and Very Wet Pattern

Good Tuesday, everyone. Much milder air is pushing into the region today and we look to average milder than normal for the rest of February. Unfortunately, the same setup is poised to bring a lot more rain to our region during the same time. My flooding concerns continue to increase.

As usual, let’s begin with today and roll forward. A few showers will be noted in the southeast early on, but skies will become partly sunny in most areas. Highs will reach the 50s, with a 60 possible in the southwest.

Showers quickly start to develop tonight and into Wednesday as a disturbance moves through from the southwest. The NAM is showing a swath of heavy rain setting up along the Interstate 64 corridor…

Temps will shoot toward 60 by Wednesday, with highs deep into the 60s by Thursday. That’s ahead of a cold front dropping in from the northwest, bringing widespread rain and some thunderstorms.

This looks like a general 1″-3″ rain for much of Kentucky through Friday. Cold air will try to catch the back edge of the rain, switching it over to a period of wet snow later Friday. The GFS is really the only model now showing this.

The same GFS gives us a break for the weekend, but the Canadian Model shows another storm system moving in on Saturday, brining more heavy rain…

The Canadian rainfall through Saturday is worrisome…

A few days ago, I made this map to illustrate where the greatest high water threat may be setting up…

The latest GFS Ensembles keep highlighting the same area for the heaviest rain numbers…

As I’ve mentioned several times, nothing good can come from this pattern.

I will update things later today, so check back. Enjoy this mainly dry Tuesday and take care.

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8 Responses to A Mild and Very Wet Pattern

  1. Formerly from KY says:

    My Air Force Weather Officer buddy said that this weather pattern we’re in will stick around through the rest of the winter and into early spring.

  2. Chris Mercer says:

    Couple of interesting questions.

    1: Will the remainder of February be mild enough to skew the winter temperatures above average overall? Both December and January were slightly below normal (between 1-2 degrees) and February has been the same so far. A really mild finish could do that.

    2: How much rain will fall? I know SE KY has been hammered in recent days. The NWS in Louisville mentioned possible minor or moderate flooding on the river basins in Central KY. I suppose that would mean the major rivers (Kentucky, Ohio, Green, etc.) would go way up. For Lexington, the wettest February on record was a little over 10 inches in 1989. There was major flooding during that month on the river basins in Central Kentucky.

  3. Virgil says:


  4. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Thelma Lou is getting the boat ready with this much water in the forecast looks like we’ll be having to take some road detours before it all settles down. Throwing all snow talk out the window, we wonder how this will all translate into severe storm season?

  5. Schroeder says:

    I just hope it doesn’t go from extremely wet to extremely dry.

  6. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Hope everyone likes wet and dreary….

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