Good Monday, folks. Our week is kicking off with showers and thunderstorms rolling across the state, as our overall pattern begins to skew cooler than normal. If you’re a regular reader of KWC, you know I’ve been hitting this change pretty hard over the past month or so. Now, it’s time for Mother Nature to deliver the goods. 🙂
Speaking of the goods, I have a little winter talk coming up.
Today’s showers and thunderstorms will have a lot of moisture to work with, so locally heavy rains are a good bet. One or two storms may also be on the strong side. Let’s get the trackers out of the way…
The actual front sweeps through here later Tuesday with more showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Temps and humidity levels will tank behind the boundary for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Check out the mid-week highs…
Another system drops in by later Thursday into Friday, and should hang around through the weekend. This is likely an anomalous cutoff low pressure spinning right on top of us…
The end result is unsettled and wet weather…
Temps will continue to run below normal during this time, with a few days coming in WELL below normal.
As far as your winter talk is concerned, I’ve been sharing many of the seasonal models all singing a similar tune with a developing weak El Nino. I’ve illustrated how the placement of the warmest waters are vitally important as to what kind of winter we get around here. With the likelihood of the warmest anomalies being located in region 3.4 of the equatorial Pacific, it enhances the potential for a trough to develop across the eastern part of the country.
A new seasonal model is in and shows that scenario happening. Here’s the Canadian month by month breakdown from December through March…
That’s a good look for winter weather lovers across Kentucky and for much of the country. That also matches up reasonably well with some of the other seasonal models I’ve been showing.
Have a great day and take care.
It is early, but appears that we have a chance for a harsh winter. Regardless, it is wet and I just eclipsed the 40 inch mark year-to-date for rainfall here at the house yesterday evening. Whether hot, cold, cool or warm, this year will be remembered more as WET than anything!
Thanks Chris for the update. I just finished reading on NOAA’s website that we are currently in an ENSO- neutral and there is an El Nino watch issued. By Autumn there is a 65% chance of an El Nino developing and by Winter 2018-19 the chances increase to 70%. NOAA did not mention whether it would be weak, moderate or strong El Nino. In the current weather pattern it continues to be very warm, humid with highs in the upper eighties with a daily chance of showers, typical for our area. Have a great day everyone.
To be honest and frank, I have seen maps that should look like that even when there is no El Nino. On the other hand, it’s unfortunate that many climate maps tend to feature a particular bias when it comes to an El Nino event this far out. In 3-4 months, compare the maps we see now with what will be expected. Changes are inevitable.
As much as I dislike Winter, I now have a new AWD vehicle, so if it comes, it comes. If this is what it will take for the weather to normalize around here, then so be it. We have not had a normal weather year since 2011.
I would agree.
Day 13 in a row without measurable rain in my part of the world. Hoping one of these showers lands in my backyard.
1 hour after posting this we received a solid 20 minute downpour.
All this summer so far, even during active pattern we’ve been in, we haven’t honestly had a decent thunderstorm here in my part of Fayette County. Like today, very little thunder, some heavy rain, but nothing impressive. Sure, we’ve had the rains, but just nothing of any intensity “thunderstorm wise”… Same last year and the year before. There were quite a few years where we had really bad storms here, but the really intense stuff seems to miss us the past few years. I feel like I’m in some sort of safe zone.
Lol, now you will likely be hit hard in the near future:P