A Few Storms Usher In October

Good Monday and welcome to October!  The tenth month of the year is off and running on a warmer than normal note with an increase in showers and thunderstorms. This pattern looks like it’s going to hold for the next week, at least. One of the main culprits is what’s going on in the tropics.

Temps today make a run at 80 in many areas, but clouds will be thickening up with scattered showers and storms going up. You will see those kicking in this afternoon and evening as the flow becomes southwesterly…

 

Scattered showers and storms will then continue through Tuesday and a few could put down some decent rains. The models are actually pretty impressed with locally heavy rain amounts during this time…

GFS

NAM

Temps later this week are toasty for this time of year. Low and middle 80s will be common with high humidity levels for this time of year. A cold front drops to about the Ohio River and slams on the brakes by late Thursday. That may bring a line of strong storms in…

The amount of cold across North America continues to be very impressive, but the amount of tropical action in the east Pacific continues to help keep it at bay. It’s not just because there is tropical action, but it’s mostly because where that action winds up.

Two systems are out in the eastern Pacific and what’s left of them will actually wind up moving into the desert southwestern part of the country. The first system is Rosa…

cone graphic

That action gets entrained into an already deep trough in the west, helping to keep ridging across the eastern half of the country.

Behind Rosa is Sergio…

It’s too early to tell what will happen with Sergio.

As soon as the tropics slow down, all that cold air is going to crash in on us and may do so with a little fury.

This is exactly what the European Ensembles are showing later next week…

Control

Admittingly, I thought that would be a little earlier in October, but I just did not think the tropics would still be cranking like they are.

Before that cold can get here, it’s likely to bring headline making snow to parts of the Rockies and high plains. Watch this monster storm this weekend and early next week and how it finally pushes the front through here…

Blizzard out west? Wow.

Have a great day and take care.


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16 Responses to A Few Storms Usher In October

  1. Schroeder says:

    That last model Chris showing a Colorado low pressure causing a Blizzard in the northern plains states is exciting to look at, but I hope that’s not going to be our primary storm tract this coming winter ? If it does go that way our winter as far as snowstorms go will be greatly diminish.

  2. Schroeder says:

    Those surface sea temperatures in the Pacific, Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic will take sometime to lower to inactivate the Tropics. In the central Atlantic Subtropical Storm Leslie is expected to become a hurricane sometime today or tomorrow. That’s a little far north for a hurricane to form in October. #climatechangeevent

    • Bryan says:

      What happened to your decision to quit posting?

      Yea, a tropical system forming in October. Time to beat the climate change alarm, smh.

      This blog really needs a block/ignore function

      • Prelude says:

        Schroeder is literally a habitual liar he always and I do mean ALWAYS says he’s going to quit posting. He never does his word is not his honor. Gotta ignore his trolling ignorance.

        • Schroeder says:

          You guys are so funny. You all crack me up ! Seriously we all should be discussing weather events on Chris’s blog. I have no intentions of leaving the comment section as the weather is going to become more interesting in the near future somewhere in the US and Canada maybe not in the Ohio Valley ?

  3. winter lover says:

    Schroder, I don’t know were get the idea about snow storm tracks way up north has a impact our winter storms. Besides in order for we have a decent snow storm the moisture gotta comes from the south and meets the cold that’s in place in Ohio valley to have a snow storm. That’s our main ingredient for us have our snowstorm always has been since I been living here since 1962

  4. Schroeder says:

    The prefect set up for a major snowstorm in the Ohio Valley is when the Polar jet ( negative charge ) combines with the subtropical jet ( positive charge ) over the southern Rockies. When the two combine and dive into the western Gulf of Mexico and then move north- northeast through south central Tennessee into eastern Kentucky and stalls under a high pressure system to the northeast of the system heavy snow will fall in all areas to the west and northwest of the low pressure system. To the east of the storm which would be on the warm side of the storm would receive rain or ice and when the storm moves out cold air would rush in and turn what moisture is left to snow showers or flurries. This scenario happened many times from 1976 through 1978. By the way 1962-1963 was a very frigid winter with not much snow where I lived in southwest Indiana.

  5. Jimbo says:

    I hope how soon the words eighties and humidity disappear from our forecast. I have had enough this year.

    • Schroeder says:

      Until the surface sea temperatures cool off to the way they were back in the late 1970’s I don’t expect much of a Fall or Winter in the way of long term cold or any real big time snowstorms. #climatechange

      • Bryan says:

        Why don’t you use all this spare time and learn how to blog. Since you’re so much more knowledgeable than Chris, let alone us minions, maybe you should learn this skill.
        #schroedertheweathertroll

  6. Troy says:

    Would it really be too much to ask to have lust one solid week of weather with low to moderate humidity!!! UGH!!!
    p.s. this is just a statement…not looking for an “answer” from Schroeder…

    • Troy says:

      and dry….

    • Terry says:

      Yeah. We are going on month # 6 of high humidity since May came in like a summer month. I am done with excess rain/humidity and would like a few weeks of fall. It doesn’t look to happen this year as It will likely go straight to winter and stay wet☹. It better snow a lot this winter since we have had 100 inches of rain…lol…seriously close to 70 to-date on the Harlan mesonet!☺

      • Jimbo says:

        I second that. I got tired of the cold and snow threats back in March and April. I like Winter weather from around Thanksgiving till March 1st. But it seems Winter starts later each year. A lot of times it is almost Thanksgiving before it frosts.

  7. Schroeder says:

    I don’t know how many times that has been said on this weather blog. Lets face it the weather is ever changing and we just have to except that and take it as it comes.

    • Jeff Kidd says:

      Schroeder everyone is so tired of your shtick on here. You know more than us and Chris routine, constantly talking about weather back in the 70’s and your #climatechange. Hurricanes in October are no uncommon because it’s still Hurricane season through November. Give it a rest!!

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