Good Monday to one and all. Since our pattern flipped on a dime almost 2 weeks ago, temperatures have been running much colder than normal. That pattern shows little sign of breaking as we head into another cold week. Things do get busy by the weekend as that major amplification of the jet stream takes place. You know… That thing I’ve been pointing toward for well over a week now. 😉

Before we get to the weekend setup, let’s talk about the chill that leads us into that. Temps stay solidly below normal the next few days, then another  cold shot moves in for the middle of the week…

For more than a week now, I’ve been trying to drive home the fact I was picking up on a healthy signal for a major amplification to the jet stream across the eastern half of the country. Well that setup is on the way and it’s going to develop a big storm system.

What’s upping the ante on this setup is the likelihood of another Pacific hurricane getting into the mix. Powerful Hurricane Willa will come ashore along the Mexico border on Tuesday, then rapidly head toward Texas…

cone graphic

That energy will then merge with additional energy diving in from the northwest.  How much phasing and the timing of these phases remains to be seen, but some wild weather is on the table for the eastern part of the country. The Canadian has the wildest solution at the moment. Watch this fully phased upper level system on the current run…

That produces a MONSTER winter storm…

Though it does keep the winter weather mainly north and east of us… Wow.

The European Model isn’t quite as extreme, but it’s close. It shows the eastern winter storm, but isn’t as phased as the Canadian…

Taken verbatim, both the Canadian and European Models are show a crushing early seasons snowstorm from the Appalachian mountains to our east into the northeastern states.

As far as the GFS is concerned, the model bias is to ALWAYS be too far south and east with cold season storms. That’s what’s happening with the latest run, but if you correct it west, you get something similar to the Euro and Canadian…

For Kentucky, this setup likely produces rain, wind and cold. Can we get a little something more out of that setup? Perhaps. It’s all about the phasing.

I will have an update or two coming later today, so check back.

Have a great Monday and take care.