Good Monday and Happy New Year’s Eve. We have a very busy weather day taking shape across Kentucky as a big storm system rolls through. This is bringing the possibility of severe storms, high winds and high water to much of the region. Honestly, 2018 can’t end soon enough.
Our day starts with heavy rain and some thunder lifting to the north along a warm front. This action may put down a quick 1″-2″ of rain, leading to local high water issues for some. As that lifts to the north, warmer air shoots into the state. This air is also very humid and a bit unstable for this time of year and that could spell strong or severe storms later today.
Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…
Damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible during this time.
That line of storms will also bring another round of heavy rain with it. Here’s a look at the areas that have the best chance at seeing some high water issues today…
High winds may gust to 50mph or a little better at times today into this evening. With a wet ground keeping the root system very soft, it won’t take much to cause some trees to be uprooted.
The next system rolling in later in the week continues to look like another high impact system for Kentucky. Rain and snow are both possible from Wednesday night through Friday…
Canadian
GFS
New version of the GFS
Heavy rain and snow are both possible from that storm system, with details still to be determined.
As this hyper-active pattern continues, another storm shows up a few days later…
Let’s get back to tracking today’s big storm system. I will have updates as needed throughout the day. I leave you with your tracking tools for the day…
Current watches
Possible watch areas
Have a great final day of the year and take care.
29 Comments
Terry on December 31, 2018 at 3:59 am
Thunder, lightning and heavy rain is coming down at my house early this morning in Harlan. This warm front is putting it down in SE KY too…not good. That mid-week storm will flood SE KY unless models change at last minute!
What Trend ? we have had snow the past years in my part of my world here western,ky. It’s just matter of time mother nature will delivered it.
BubbaG on December 31, 2018 at 9:07 am
Overall trend though is rain and the most important one is the most recent. December missed KY with snow to the north and especially to the south of us. THAT is the trend that seems most pertinent, since could be an indicator for this winter. I’m placing odds that we are Fencetucky this winter based on this, since the models to this point have been absolute JUNK for snow.
That does not mean it will not happen (duh), but just that so far, the trend is not being kind to suggest much snow. I’m fine with that, since less salt and other issues dealing with a lot of snow. Guessing though most here would not be.
Louisville closing in on wettest year mark. Less than 0.20″ to go with a slug of lt to mod rain to push through over next couple of hours.
feederband on December 31, 2018 at 8:26 am
I think we’ll get it. What’s yet to come in this morning and when the front moves through this evening should do it.
Terry on December 31, 2018 at 8:56 am
I noticed the heaviest rain with the warm front was split both to your SW and SE! But, I am about 100 % confident that Louisville sets the record by this afternoon, if not this morning.
SE KY received heavier rain from the warm front than most models predicted. I received a quick .80 down here early this morning with many areas over an inch just to my NW.
I only need .63 by tonight to reach 70.00 in plus….I think I will as the front itself is hefty!
This was a model from last week, is this still in the fold? Or are these models even close a week out?
BubbaG on December 31, 2018 at 9:13 am
Given no further follow-up by CB and the current outlook, seems a big negatory.
Farmer 43 on December 31, 2018 at 9:48 am
The models are garbage and I hate to say this but most meteorologists fall for them it’s been returning to winter for 3 weeks now with no winter in sight late week system rain for sure no cold available and none in sight if you’ve noticed cb hasn’t said anything about returning to winter temps because he himself has been tricked to many times
Jim B on December 31, 2018 at 9:22 am
Agree, looks like normal to above temps to me. No more models for me, until the day before haha. Yawn meter at 10
Local mets here in central ohio said last night January will be record warmth even a couple 75 + degree days and February just as warm said almost a zero chance of any accumulating snow thru march
…And on the lighter side of the news, Lewis is out at Cincinnati.
Terry on December 31, 2018 at 11:01 am
Well good! I remember someone on here saying we had a better chance of Lewis being fired than a big snow this winter….well, now we may end up with both….PATIENCE IS NOT MY STRONG SUIT BUT I STILL THINK WE CAN MUSTER SOME WINTER BEFORE MARCH…LOL!
BengalFan on December 31, 2018 at 12:29 pm
Bengals ownership still terrible..this should have happened along time ago..,after 47 years of being a fan, I will definitely stop being one if they hire Hue Jackson!!!
But this did happen before a big snow,,,,I’m afraid no big snow is in store for us this winter.
Chris, my fellow bengals fan, do you think it will get cold around here soon, or we keep in same pattern
BubbaG on December 31, 2018 at 3:27 pm
That should have happened YEARS ago. How he kept his job seems to defy any professional logic.
Bob on December 31, 2018 at 10:46 am
Why does Chris continue to show snow with each each and models when no one else is does this?
Chris foresee something of what other mets don’t see. Chris is pretty much accurate when he sees something different.
Prelude on December 31, 2018 at 11:30 am
Other mets see what CB is seeing CB is not a magical meteorologist they all look at the same maps and models. CB likes to go out on a limb where other mets take the more conservative approach. CB is a great met, CB likes to look at potential and what might happen sometimes it pans out and other times it doesn’t.
JimB on December 31, 2018 at 11:50 am
That was a paragraph of contradiction prelude. That being said a warm winter is fine with me, no matter who predicts it, or goes out on a limb
Andy Rose on December 31, 2018 at 11:50 am
Already higher wind speeds than The last wind storm
Thunder, lightning and heavy rain is coming down at my house early this morning in Harlan. This warm front is putting it down in SE KY too…not good. That mid-week storm will flood SE KY unless models change at last minute!
Closing in on an inch already
With not much cold air in place I just dont see much snow chances later this week.
Like what’s been said for years follow the trend.
What Trend ? we have had snow the past years in my part of my world here western,ky. It’s just matter of time mother nature will delivered it.
Overall trend though is rain and the most important one is the most recent. December missed KY with snow to the north and especially to the south of us. THAT is the trend that seems most pertinent, since could be an indicator for this winter. I’m placing odds that we are Fencetucky this winter based on this, since the models to this point have been absolute JUNK for snow.
That does not mean it will not happen (duh), but just that so far, the trend is not being kind to suggest much snow. I’m fine with that, since less salt and other issues dealing with a lot of snow. Guessing though most here would not be.
Louisville closing in on wettest year mark. Less than 0.20″ to go with a slug of lt to mod rain to push through over next couple of hours.
I think we’ll get it. What’s yet to come in this morning and when the front moves through this evening should do it.
I noticed the heaviest rain with the warm front was split both to your SW and SE! But, I am about 100 % confident that Louisville sets the record by this afternoon, if not this morning.
SE KY received heavier rain from the warm front than most models predicted. I received a quick .80 down here early this morning with many areas over an inch just to my NW.
I only need .63 by tonight to reach 70.00 in plus….I think I will as the front itself is hefty!
As of 9:00 a.m., Louisville is at 67.96″, just 0.07″ away with lighter rain to the south of airport.
Three systems: Rain, rain and more rain. Measurable snow won’t happen. Rodger in Dodger
https://kyweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/GFS-65.gif
This was a model from last week, is this still in the fold? Or are these models even close a week out?
Given no further follow-up by CB and the current outlook, seems a big negatory.
The models are garbage and I hate to say this but most meteorologists fall for them it’s been returning to winter for 3 weeks now with no winter in sight late week system rain for sure no cold available and none in sight if you’ve noticed cb hasn’t said anything about returning to winter temps because he himself has been tricked to many times
Agree, looks like normal to above temps to me. No more models for me, until the day before haha. Yawn meter at 10
Louisville has officially set the wettest year mark for the 2nd time this decade
CONGRATS!
Might as well set a record after going through a weather year like this!
Local mets here in central ohio said last night January will be record warmth even a couple 75 + degree days and February just as warm said almost a zero chance of any accumulating snow thru march
What news station did you hear this from?
He must be forecasting Texas weather outlook. LOL
…And on the lighter side of the news, Lewis is out at Cincinnati.
Well good! I remember someone on here saying we had a better chance of Lewis being fired than a big snow this winter….well, now we may end up with both….PATIENCE IS NOT MY STRONG SUIT BUT I STILL THINK WE CAN MUSTER SOME WINTER BEFORE MARCH…LOL!
Bengals ownership still terrible..this should have happened along time ago..,after 47 years of being a fan, I will definitely stop being one if they hire Hue Jackson!!!
But this did happen before a big snow,,,,I’m afraid no big snow is in store for us this winter.
Chris, my fellow bengals fan, do you think it will get cold around here soon, or we keep in same pattern
That should have happened YEARS ago. How he kept his job seems to defy any professional logic.
Why does Chris continue to show snow with each each and models when no one else is does this?
Chris foresee something of what other mets don’t see. Chris is pretty much accurate when he sees something different.
Other mets see what CB is seeing CB is not a magical meteorologist they all look at the same maps and models. CB likes to go out on a limb where other mets take the more conservative approach. CB is a great met, CB likes to look at potential and what might happen sometimes it pans out and other times it doesn’t.
That was a paragraph of contradiction prelude. That being said a warm winter is fine with me, no matter who predicts it, or goes out on a limb
Already higher wind speeds than The last wind storm