Good Friday, folks. Our developing winter storm is inching closer to the bluegrass state and will throw waves of precipitation at us over the weekend. The first arrives in the west later this afternoon then develops across the rest of the state tonight, This delivers mainly snow, with the additional waves showing more of a split personality later Saturday and Sunday.
Let’s begin with the latest Winter Weather Alerts…
That map should really fill in early today in preparation for the first round of snow working in here from the west. I mentioned a few days ago how this could become an overachiever right out of the gate and that’s certainly a real possibility, especially for areas of central and western parts of the state. Here’s my latest call for snowfall through Saturday morning ONLY…
Will that be perfect? Nope, but it’s a rough estimate of how this may play out. Again, those lines may go a bit north or south depending on how the day plays out. I will offer up two more snowfall forecasts before the evening, if needed.
A quick check on what the models are showing through around noon on Saturday, finds some impressive numbers.
Here’s the Hi Res NAM
The NAM
Short range Canadian
Canadian
European
GFS
For the rest of the weekend, my thoughts remain pretty much unchanged. The best chance for snow is across the northern parts of the state, with rain across the southern half and a buffer zone in the middle. That’s the zone that could go either way from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday…
A degree or so will make a big difference in where the rain vs. snow line sets up. That may be a game time decision. I will try to focus more on that round at some point today, but the initial round is getting most of my attention out of the gate.
I will have another update by noon or so. Make it a good one and take care.
I suppose a WWA is better than nothing.
Winter 2019…RIP…..rain train rolls on
Garbage take
January 11 and this guy is declaring the entire winter over. So salty.
Where the snow….salty
A right on take Jeffy. Wheres the snow?
I probably wouldn’t go that far Russell. I’d say we still have few more shots at systems like this one for central ky. The inch or two of snow, squashed by immediate temp increase and rain haha
I am cheering for Jimbo!:)
Still, I don’t think he gets much. Some of northern KY looks good, especially around Florence. I think around Lexington/Louisville on east will get some but will be a flash melt-off tomorrow south of far northern KY.
I can see tomorrow’s tweets rolling in from Central KY area like this: Morning will be happy tweets with people gloating about some wet snowfall, but by evening, sad tweets asking where it went….that is how I think this goes down. I am glad that the models left SE KY out as this go around is too warm with no big let down for me as this not a big snow miss:)
Thanks for the shout out, Terry. But it doesn’t look good for my area at all. The snow tonight looks to die away right on the WV/KY border. Anything after that will probably be rain. Usually if the forecast says rain/snow or wintry mix its about 98% rain here. I am also wondering about the supposed pattern change to colder? My extended forecast calls for 45 to 50 degree highs all next week after Monday
Good grief, Jimbo. Are you this negative about everything in life, or just the weather?
What’s negative?
Should be the week of 20th for first arctic surge. Hopefully, ***key word here***, we don’t fully lose the overachieving subjet but suppress it into the Carolinas so we can END OUT these lows on top of KY and the region as we have been stuck in for months. We need some systems to travel from the Gulf States into the Carolinas to clobber both ourvregions!
We might as well accept that this winter was a bust. Covington area “may” get lucky but at this point I’m not convinced. Here in Southern Kentucky we’re pretty sick of rain.
I lost brain cells reading this comment.
We would never know, judging by your usual posts Hammy
Hammy means well. The lack of snow clouds his thoughts 🙂
That said, the expectation last week was the cold air would be in place for KY, nor based on the forecast, that seems to have not panned out.
Nothing clouds my thoughts.
Not possible
I think it is just starting based on all of the data!
I understand your frustration of no snow but the pattern is changing.
Yep! I believe this the beginning of a harsh back loaded winter.
Wuh?
Thelma Lou is excited to see all our snow on the ground in the morning…all 60 minutes of it!
Winter storm warning for Covington!
I’m forever optimistic, so I’ll just be over here waiting alone for a big snow fall. (I think it can, I think it can)
I’m in the snow line area for tonight , but tomorrow could be iffy will see how this plays out. Thanks Chris for all you do and have a good day.
Viewing all of Chris’s weather models since Tuesday. The states of Missouri and central Illinois really stand out as to getting a major snow event ? The storm weakens as it moves into Indiana and Ohio. If there was a northern component ( Albert Clipper ) negative charge or an upper level low pressure system phasing with the subtropical jet ( positive charge ) the whole state of Kentucky would be in a winter storm watch and latter upgraded to a warning as the snow starts falling and accumulating. But for all snow lovers out there WINTER IS NOT OVER. I still think as the days get longer the weather pattern will change over to a more winter pattern for Kentucky. In the meantime you will have to take what we get !
I’m so glad there is still hope for winter, since Schroeder said that it is not over yet. Thanks.
No milk and bread run needed.
I’ve got my Milk & Bread at home:)
What else do you have at home? ;P
Who in the southern tier counties want to make some mud balls or a mud man?!!!! 🙂 🙂 😉
You’re getting a late start there Troy.
lol. Had plenty of chances over the past year, just haven’t gotten around to it yet! hahaha
Very good looks on the ensembles this morning. Queue the “winter is over” comments, LUL
Just a dusting probably in Central KY! Ha ha…NOT! (Got to have a Frank Faulkner reference in this thread somewhere) Will be laughing this turns into an overachiever!!
Far northern Ky included in warning
?
4-6″ expected through tomorrow
NWS pretty confident about little if any mixing issues
Personally, I would not dismiss it either
No bread and milk needed for me! #keto
Thanks Chris. I really wish you had better news for us snow starved folks in the southern half of Kentucky. I know you only forecast what you see, but doggone it, we have had so much stinking rain its hard to think about more. I will try to see some of the snow tonight before it changes over to rain. Depends on when it starts and how long I can say awake. 🙂 Have a great afternoon everyone.