Good Saturday, folks. A round of snow is lifting northward across the state today, bringing accumulations to many areas. This band of snow will soon be replaced by another wave of precipitation that will be in the form of rain and snow later today into tonight.
Before we start things out with your morning tracking toys, here are a few thoughts to begin the day:
This band of snow is lifting into northern Kentucky through the morning.
Snowfall with goes from very little in the south to higher numbers in the north, especially areas of east-central Kentucky and north.
Some snow covered roads are likely early on.
As that band lifts our. temps rise above freezing for areas along and south of Interstate 64 by early afternoon.
Light rain takes over for the southern half of the state as the next wave moves in later today into tonight. This rain continues for areas south of 64 with rain and snow along the 64 corridor. More snow falls in the north.
Where does the evening and overnight band of accumulating snow set up across the northern half of the state? That may be a constant nowcast.
Most areas should see whatever is left switching to a little light snow on Sunday.
I will go more in depth on all that with updates later today and talk about a rather extreme winter pattern taking shape for much of the country.
European Model snowfall next 10 days (including today)…
GFS Ensembles for the next 2 weeks…
And the bitter cold coming…
I have you all set to track the early Saturday snows…
Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio Lexington
I-75 @ Newtown Pike Lexington
I-75/I-65 Northern Split Lexington
I-75 MP 127 Georgetown
I-64 at KY-801 Near Morehead
I-64 MP 97 Winchester
Mountain Parkway @ MP 36 Near Pine Ridge
Florence
Covington
Louisville
E-town
I-65 MP 36 Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway MP 5 Near Bowling Green
US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance Fort Campbell
I-24 MP 4 @ US 60 Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US 62 Paducah
Stay safe and take care.
43 Comments
Justin on January 12, 2019 at 4:10 am
I’d say as of right now, we have a solid 2 inches here in northern Pulaski
Jeff Hamlin on January 12, 2019 at 4:10 am
Pretty nice snow in Richmond.
Terry on January 12, 2019 at 4:45 am
How did Louville do? Seems like decent radar returns concentrated near Louisville for a good part of the night.
Still dry in Harlan! Dewpoint actually kept the atmosphere too dry near the surface and ate up the first round, so I want even have to watch the rain ruin it later here in my area! I didn’t expect that much virga.
I work at the airport. I’d say at least 2″ there when I left. I live about 10 miles southwest of the airport and just measured 2.2″ with a little light freezing rain since my temperature is 32, and has apparently stayed there since midnight according to my weather station.
Bjenks on January 12, 2019 at 5:46 am
Leaving to plow now. Woke up at 230 to check and it was snowing really good. Up now to go plow my four properties and I would say 2-3 on my deck. North of the River is always the winner. This was a MEH storm onto the next one.
Which Way Is the Wind Blowing on January 12, 2019 at 11:33 am
More of a nuisance than anything else. Which is ok with me since I need to run around the city today.
TennMark on January 12, 2019 at 5:50 am
Mostly virga in Nashville, but some rain mixed with sleet occurred in the hours before midnight.
I’m married to a snow lover. She’s likely a bit disappointed on this go around. But just maybe the patience of Tennessee winter enthusiasts may be rewarded the next few weeks/months.
BlizzardTim on January 12, 2019 at 5:59 am
I’d say your right seems like the trend for pattern change will favor us getting snow here in Tennessee
Terry on January 12, 2019 at 6:09 am
Yeah, we need the subjet to stay active but position much farther SE, just not fully suppressed. We need the jet to run through the northern Gulf States, then through the Carolinas to really slam us more southern folks, especially you south of Knoxville.
Achieving the right pattern for a lot of snow is hard for SE KY border counties and east TN. I think we score some snow after 20th myself.
Msd on January 12, 2019 at 9:17 am
Next weekend looks like something to watch. That will be the first of the Arctic air outbreaks. The new gfs has gone bonkers with the cold coming after that with subzero temperatures across ky and TN. Granted it’s a long way out, but the signs are there.
Thanks! I got my eye on it. I hope we can get the subjet suppressed a little but not all the way to the Gulf or south of there. Plus, I want the subjet to stay active but change position only as these systems right over top of and NW Tracks WILL HAVE TO END FOR SNOW, especially on down in and near TN. There is room and growing chance for some snow magic here in the near future:)
Someone from Lexington take a look at one of those trimarc cameras labeled I75/I65 Northern split Lexington. I’m sure that is I64 not I65
TennMark on January 12, 2019 at 5:57 am
In stark contrast to the current winter conditions, on this very day (January 12) in weather history in 1890 was a significant tornado outbreak. While St Louis and other towns in Missouri were affected, the most violent and deadly tornado that day was an F4 which leveled much of Clinton KY.
Even though January tornadoes are not unheard of for our area, more violent wintertime tornadoes are fairly rare. Indeed, this F4 at Clinton is one of only two January F4s in Kentucky’s recorded history (no January EF4s in Kentucky have happened to date, the Enhanced Fujita scale replaced the original Fujita scale in 2007). It’s perhaps no big surprise that over the last 130 years or so, the small handful of January/February F4s in Kentucky and Tennessee have occurred in the western areas of both states. The lower elevations near the Mississippi River Valley may provide a bit more wintertime warmth and thus a bit more lift, moisture and instability to fuel any tornadic thunderstorms. Add shear (both speed shear and vertical shear) and you may have a good formula for tornadoes. In this case, January 12 1890 saw tornadic conditions in Missouri and western Kentucky that are much more typical of the spring months .
Jared from Letcher County on January 12, 2019 at 7:02 am
The thin coating of snow that fell last night has already melted off here.
Terry on January 12, 2019 at 7:27 am
Not a flake in Harlan. King Virga here, lol. I am not disappointed as we were never the target here.
I am only tracking this storm for northern KY, and because I am a weather nut which is what I do:)
Jimbo on January 12, 2019 at 7:23 am
Nothing so far near Huntington. I know we were in the 1-2 zone, but was that inches or flakes?
Terry on January 12, 2019 at 7:30 am
King Virga was in both far SE KY and your area. I am sad for you but I had high confidence when I wrote you yesterday morning that you probably wouldn’t get much there….just wish I was wrong for you:(
I actually think you have a slightly better shot at accumulating snow later this weekend….fingers crossed for you for late tonight and Sunday morning!
Jimbo on January 12, 2019 at 7:49 am
Thanks for the kind words. I am afraid your area and mine are doomed by the warm wedge. There is only one storm track that can overcome the wedge and put down accumulating snow for us. That storm has to move from Florida Panhandle to Virginia Beach. It used to be the track for the really BIG ones but now it literally is the ONLY track.
KT on January 12, 2019 at 10:25 am
Pretty sure last year’s surprise storm did not come from that direction. Your negativity is exhausting.
feederband on January 12, 2019 at 7:51 am
Temps this Thursday through Saturday are forecast in the 50’s. I don’t see the snow chances going up this week. 10 day snow outlook may need revising. Of course things could change in an hour in the Ohio Valley.
Jimbo on January 12, 2019 at 10:55 am
That is exactly what I was reading. Temps in the 40’s to near 50 all next week.
BubbaG on January 12, 2019 at 8:02 am
Based on the cams, looks like most even more north got the low end of the forecast and borderline freezing temps. Still seems a good shot to get at least one 6 to 8 inch snow this winter. Surely the cold and moisture will meet like chocolate and peanut butter at some point 🙂
Jim B on January 12, 2019 at 8:07 am
Don’t count on it
Coffeelady on January 12, 2019 at 8:44 am
Thanks Chris. At our house we have about an inch. Roads are wet but not slick. Our temp is 34. It is very pretty to see, and we were on the slim to none chance so I am pleased to see at least a little bit. Hope everyone has a great day today!
Andy Rose on January 12, 2019 at 9:43 am
Congrats on your inch of snow Coffeelady. One could count the flakes in my backyard if so inclined.
About 1/2 inch of snow here in my part of Richmond.
Over the years I have learned that the models are just plain bad for winter forecasting. Being a math and science guy I am still shaking my head around why the models aren’t self correcting. Why each “reality” doesn’t provide feedback to the models’ algorithm and make it better. Perhaps they “save up” the feedback and make sweeping corrections annually or even less often? Having reality provide input into the model doesn’t seem that tough to me. But what do I know?
Terry on January 12, 2019 at 11:34 am
I agree as we are nearing the year 2020. If we know the EURO is known to consistently hold back too much energy from the SW and GFS almost always NEEDS TO SHIFT NW to be accurate, even at the last minute at times, why not resolve this?
Unfortunately it’s not that simple. These are global models, and small changes to the model will have widespread implications globally. But, the models have been getting better and better, despite some people (not you, Terry) saying ‘I remember the models of 1972 were far superior to this junk’. Nate silver has a nice article on it, a few years ago, but still relevant.
nasdaq on January 12, 2019 at 9:37 am
Snow Pack Near ✔
Melva on January 12, 2019 at 9:50 am
A very light dusting here in Wayne county, West Virginia. Beautiful frosty morning though.
feederband on January 12, 2019 at 10:17 am
I had a uniform 2.5 inches on my deck in Cloverleaf this morning. Melting speeding up now.
Ruth on January 12, 2019 at 10:46 am
No snow here in Reedy, WV. We were forecasted by a local met to get at least an inch this morning. It rained for a bit, instead. That was early this morning. No precip for a few hours now.
Got about 2 inches here in Union.co. Not going to stay long rain is moving in this afternoon.
Debbie on January 12, 2019 at 11:44 am
Welp, in Bardstown, had we not gotten in on that feisty little banding at the onset, I wouldn’t have awakened to the same thing I saw before I went to bed. lol.
BH on January 12, 2019 at 11:47 am
This has been a dud here in Southeast Ohio so far. A little light snow about a quarter of an inch atmost.
Snow drought continues in WKY as the rain train rolls in with 50s forecast for next week….
Bobt on January 12, 2019 at 2:11 pm
Looks like the majority of the state is going to make it to the halfway point of meteorogical winter without the first measurable snow. Going to have to be a backloaded winter if anyone is counting on playing in the snow this year. Even if we do get a couple of big snows the majority of the winter looks to be a dud. Rain has been the theme just like the seasons before it
Jimbo on January 12, 2019 at 2:24 pm
I couldn’t agree more. I have received a trace of snow so far and that was in November. I have a long way to go just to get to normal snowfall. But we have a lot company in the snowless department this year, I read where Boston has only received .2 of an inch. I think the only areas above normal are Virginia and North Carolina.
I’d say as of right now, we have a solid 2 inches here in northern Pulaski
Pretty nice snow in Richmond.
How did Louville do? Seems like decent radar returns concentrated near Louisville for a good part of the night.
Still dry in Harlan! Dewpoint actually kept the atmosphere too dry near the surface and ate up the first round, so I want even have to watch the rain ruin it later here in my area! I didn’t expect that much virga.
I work at the airport. I’d say at least 2″ there when I left. I live about 10 miles southwest of the airport and just measured 2.2″ with a little light freezing rain since my temperature is 32, and has apparently stayed there since midnight according to my weather station.
Leaving to plow now. Woke up at 230 to check and it was snowing really good. Up now to go plow my four properties and I would say 2-3 on my deck. North of the River is always the winner.
This was a MEH storm onto the next one.
More of a nuisance than anything else.
Which is ok with me since I need to run around the city today.
Mostly virga in Nashville, but some rain mixed with sleet occurred in the hours before midnight.
I’m married to a snow lover. She’s likely a bit disappointed on this go around. But just maybe the patience of Tennessee winter enthusiasts may be rewarded the next few weeks/months.
I’d say your right seems like the trend for pattern change will favor us getting snow here in Tennessee
Yeah, we need the subjet to stay active but position much farther SE, just not fully suppressed. We need the jet to run through the northern Gulf States, then through the Carolinas to really slam us more southern folks, especially you south of Knoxville.
Achieving the right pattern for a lot of snow is hard for SE KY border counties and east TN. I think we score some snow after 20th myself.
Next weekend looks like something to watch. That will be the first of the Arctic air outbreaks. The new gfs has gone bonkers with the cold coming after that with subzero temperatures across ky and TN. Granted it’s a long way out, but the signs are there.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p®ion=eus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2019011206&fh=318
Thanks! I got my eye on it. I hope we can get the subjet suppressed a little but not all the way to the Gulf or south of there. Plus, I want the subjet to stay active but change position only as these systems right over top of and NW Tracks WILL HAVE TO END FOR SNOW, especially on down in and near TN. There is room and growing chance for some snow magic here in the near future:)
Someone from Lexington take a look at one of those trimarc cameras labeled I75/I65 Northern split Lexington. I’m sure that is I64 not I65
In stark contrast to the current winter conditions, on this very day (January 12) in weather history in 1890 was a significant tornado outbreak. While St Louis and other towns in Missouri were affected, the most violent and deadly tornado that day was an F4 which leveled much of Clinton KY.
Even though January tornadoes are not unheard of for our area, more violent wintertime tornadoes are fairly rare. Indeed, this F4 at Clinton is one of only two January F4s in Kentucky’s recorded history (no January EF4s in Kentucky have happened to date, the Enhanced Fujita scale replaced the original Fujita scale in 2007). It’s perhaps no big surprise that over the last 130 years or so, the small handful of January/February F4s in Kentucky and Tennessee have occurred in the western areas of both states. The lower elevations near the Mississippi River Valley may provide a bit more wintertime warmth and thus a bit more lift, moisture and instability to fuel any tornadic thunderstorms. Add shear (both speed shear and vertical shear) and you may have a good formula for tornadoes. In this case, January 12 1890 saw tornadic conditions in Missouri and western Kentucky that are much more typical of the spring months .
For more,
https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=17151#comment-174614
Always enjoy your history lessons.
Appreciate the comment!
A wet windshield duster just north of the BG
The thin coating of snow that fell last night has already melted off here.
Not a flake in Harlan. King Virga here, lol. I am not disappointed as we were never the target here.
I am only tracking this storm for northern KY, and because I am a weather nut which is what I do:)
Nothing so far near Huntington. I know we were in the 1-2 zone, but was that inches or flakes?
King Virga was in both far SE KY and your area. I am sad for you but I had high confidence when I wrote you yesterday morning that you probably wouldn’t get much there….just wish I was wrong for you:(
I actually think you have a slightly better shot at accumulating snow later this weekend….fingers crossed for you for late tonight and Sunday morning!
Thanks for the kind words. I am afraid your area and mine are doomed by the warm wedge. There is only one storm track that can overcome the wedge and put down accumulating snow for us. That storm has to move from Florida Panhandle to Virginia Beach. It used to be the track for the really BIG ones but now it literally is the ONLY track.
Pretty sure last year’s surprise storm did not come from that direction. Your negativity is exhausting.
Temps this Thursday through Saturday are forecast in the 50’s. I don’t see the snow chances going up this week. 10 day snow outlook may need revising. Of course things could change in an hour in the Ohio Valley.
That is exactly what I was reading. Temps in the 40’s to near 50 all next week.
Based on the cams, looks like most even more north got the low end of the forecast and borderline freezing temps. Still seems a good shot to get at least one 6 to 8 inch snow this winter. Surely the cold and moisture will meet like chocolate and peanut butter at some point 🙂
Don’t count on it
Thanks Chris. At our house we have about an inch. Roads are wet but not slick. Our temp is 34. It is very pretty to see, and we were on the slim to none chance so I am pleased to see at least a little bit. Hope everyone has a great day today!
Congrats on your inch of snow Coffeelady. One could count the flakes in my backyard if so inclined.
About 1/2 inch of snow here in my part of Richmond.
Over the years I have learned that the models are just plain bad for winter forecasting. Being a math and science guy I am still shaking my head around why the models aren’t self correcting. Why each “reality” doesn’t provide feedback to the models’ algorithm and make it better. Perhaps they “save up” the feedback and make sweeping corrections annually or even less often? Having reality provide input into the model doesn’t seem that tough to me. But what do I know?
I agree as we are nearing the year 2020. If we know the EURO is known to consistently hold back too much energy from the SW and GFS almost always NEEDS TO SHIFT NW to be accurate, even at the last minute at times, why not resolve this?
Unfortunately it’s not that simple. These are global models, and small changes to the model will have widespread implications globally. But, the models have been getting better and better, despite some people (not you, Terry) saying ‘I remember the models of 1972 were far superior to this junk’. Nate silver has a nice article on it, a few years ago, but still relevant.
Snow Pack Near ✔
A very light dusting here in Wayne county, West Virginia. Beautiful frosty morning though.
I had a uniform 2.5 inches on my deck in Cloverleaf this morning. Melting speeding up now.
No snow here in Reedy, WV. We were forecasted by a local met to get at least an inch this morning. It rained for a bit, instead. That was early this morning. No precip for a few hours now.
Got about 2 inches here in Union.co. Not going to stay long rain is moving in this afternoon.
Welp, in Bardstown, had we not gotten in on that feisty little banding at the onset, I wouldn’t have awakened to the same thing I saw before I went to bed. lol.
This has been a dud here in Southeast Ohio so far. A little light snow about a quarter of an inch atmost.
Snow drought continues in WKY as the rain train rolls in with 50s forecast for next week….
Looks like the majority of the state is going to make it to the halfway point of meteorogical winter without the first measurable snow. Going to have to be a backloaded winter if anyone is counting on playing in the snow this year. Even if we do get a couple of big snows the majority of the winter looks to be a dud. Rain has been the theme just like the seasons before it
I couldn’t agree more. I have received a trace of snow so far and that was in November. I have a long way to go just to get to normal snowfall. But we have a lot company in the snowless department this year, I read where Boston has only received .2 of an inch. I think the only areas above normal are Virginia and North Carolina.
For what it’s worth, in my part of Richmond we have had perhaps 2 inches of snow, total over two events so far this year.
Looks like a wall of rain is beginning to roll across Kentucky from west to east on radar. Anybody who got a small accumulation better enjoy it fast.