Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another day with a few flakes flying across the bluegrass state with a lot more action on the way. We flipped the switch back to winter last week, but the Old Man (I’m not talking about myself) is just getting started. An arctic front arrives this weekend and will have a winter storm along it. This is likely to bring all kinds of precipitation to the bluegrass state.

As always, we start with what’s going on today and roll forward. A few flurries or light snows may be flying from time to time, with patchy freezing drizzle possible. Much of this will not show up on radar…

A weak front drops in on Wednesday and may spit out a few snow showers as it does so. From there, a weak low develops to our west and rolls right across the state Thursday into Thursday night. That one is mainly rain, but some wet snow is possible on the front end and back end of this system. especially north. Here’s the NAM for the next few days…

This weekend’s winter storm is going to be headline making system for a significant portion of the country. An arctic boundary sags into the Ohio Valley by Saturday as a couple of lows ride northeast along it. Exactly where that boundary sets up won’t be known for a few more days, but that’s the key player in determining the weather in your backyard.

All modes of precipitation are on the table this weekend, but the early signal is for heavy rain and local high water issues giving way to the potential for freezing rain and snow as arctic temps crash in.

The European Model continues to show this well…

As I’ve mentioned for the past few days, the most awesome part of this setup for me is the temperature swing. 60 to single digits in less than 24 hours? That’s certainly a possibility. Watch the bottom drop out…

In addition to the potential for freezing rain and snow Saturday night into Sunday, that quick of a temperature drop following that much rain could lead to a big time ice up. It’s been a while since this region experienced a true flash freeze.

Another aspect of this setup… The wind. Gusts of 40mph or greater may show up as the cold crashes in…

Many of you are just want snow and I totally get that. But, if you’re a true fan of weather like myself, all the action packed into this weekend is pretty awesome to see. Oh and you may even get some snow out of it if you play nice. 😉

Here’s a little looksee at some of the other models…

New GFS

Canadian

Areas getting snow and ice on the ground have a legit shot at zero by Monday morning with a wind chill even colder than that.

Another storm system will quickly follow that up a few days later, unleashing a fresh round of arctic air. Temps showing up with that blast continue to send a little shiver down the spine…

Again, it’s not just the operational models showing this harsh winter pattern developing. This is about as cold as you can get the GFS Ensembles…

Again, those departures are in Celsius instead of Fahrenheit.

I will drop by for updates later today as my 4 day weekend comes to a close with a visit to the dentist. 🙂 Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.