Good Friday, folks. Arctic winds are blowing across the state today and that’s a sign of things to come. The setup for the weekend will feature periodic areas of light snow and flurries rolling across the region, with a bigger system lurking for late Monday and Tuesday. That’s ahead of some brutally cold air entering the country.
Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Wind chills this morning range from -5 to +5 in many areas. Skies will be sunny, but cold temps hang tough all day.
The weekend will see several weak systems working across the region. A few rounds of light snow and flurries will be noted…
Light accumulations will be possible, especially Sunday.
The arctic front and low moving in early next week appears to be speeding up on its arrival time. This front slams in here late Monday with a snow behind it. That snow is falling in arctic cold temps that can give us some high ratio snows. There is also the increasing risk of us getting a bigger storm system out of this.
The European Model has been hinting at this for a few days now, with the latest run kicking it up a notch…
That’s got a little old school look to it.
The GFS trying to get a similar look, but is too progressive…
The Canadian Model is between the Euro and the GFS with the Monday night and Tuesday system, but keeps the polar vortex oriented in a fashion that allows other systems to sneaky underneath after that…
The European Model is also doing that, giving us additional systems riding to our south with brutally cold air in place in our region.
Folks, the pattern ahead is bitterly cold with the potential for multiple days with below zero lows. Obviously, the snow potential is certainly there, too.
I will have your normal updates later. Make it a good one and take care.
Call you all call off Bourbon County School today and we got bottom in our heart it will be cold this mornings below 5 degree
Winter is so done. Bring on Spring! 😉
I’m a warm weather person that could easily take year round warmth, but I still enjoy tracking snowstorms up to a point.
My wife on the other hand absolutely loves winter and snow. 🙂
Look at the map CB shows. Most of the snow is around central KY but not on it. Just a map, but ironic. Cold air with little snow is kind of like beer flat beer.
Not a good comparison. Cold air helps in other ways. 🙂
While it’s still early, this could be Nashville’s best shot for a big snow since January 22-23 2016. Back then, I measured about seven inches in my yard, but areas north of downtown got at least ten inches.
Officially, Nashville TN received eight inches.
It was on this date in 1997 that an uncommon January tornado outbreak occurred with just over a dozen tornadoes being confirmed. The only Kentucky tornado was an F2 near Glasgow KY. But the strongest twister from the outbreak was an F4 that p-a-s-s-e-d near Murfreesboro TN. There was no loss of life in Kentucky and Tennessee, although there was a fatality in Alabama.
Only five or so January tornadoes in Tennessee have been F4s (only two January F4s have touched down in Kentucky’s recorded history).
Our tornado guru!
I remember some of those 90s events. Actually, we have had a lot of winter severe weather events since the 90s, at least every other year it seems. Of course I live in the most dead part of KY for tornadoes but not far from in Middlesboro does get some as the topography is favorable there!
The more snow…the more we tank on the temps next week. It will be fun to watch for sure, except the extreme cold. I dont wish this cold on as anyone!
As Lee Corso would say “Not so fast my friend “ haha…. when the words “potential”, “possible”, and “hinting” are used in the same post for snow, that usually leaves wiggle room for none of it happening haha
What happened to the single digits this morning? It was warmer at 2 am than it got all day yesterday.
Yes. Our forecast low was 19. My car thermometer was 28 at 7:00z
Of course if it happens that way where you live, it’s how it was everywhere. 😉
My replies are not being posted, is there a problem with this site ?
Nope Its working as it should
50 degrees is forcaste for Monday and the it bottoms out afterwards. It be interesting to see how long this next cold spell will last next week. It just been too much of a yo-yo in term of temps this winter so far. Not kind of a pattern for decent snow.
Alright got through. Back to normal. Must have been my lack of knowledge of computers. Sometimes I wonder why I even started messing around with this posting addiction. I was better off and a lot happier before.
We were happier too.
Temps missed by 20 degrees here in the south east
Uh, probably not enough for schools in central Kentucky to be out next wee but definitely eastern Kentucky will be out
Disappointing winter and year so far
Seems the not as cold as expected.
I’m always suspect when the maps shows that polar vortex will be extreme in our part of the country. Never really turns out as advertised. And I’m thankful for that!
How you figure? CB posts is titled “Harsh period of winter ahead” It doesn’t say false alarm the cold is not going to be as bad as first thought. By mid next Wednesday windchills in Kentucky between -14 to -20 below zero. Places like Indianapolis -37 below zero wind chill in Chicago -55 below zero wind chill. Not only is that insanely absurd cold wind chills just north of here it’s deadly. Exposed skin in 5 minutes with temperatures and wind chills you’ll have frostbite. So yeah it’s going to get just as cold as forecast and expected.
It would never say false alarm whether it happens or not. We will see next week if it gets as cold as thought. The snow hasn’t showed yet for most that’s for sure.
it will likely depend on snowcover, which has not really had a good track record for most of Kentucky, but I can see below zero wind chills for some, even some with advisory criteria, without the snowpack.
We’ll see if that forecast verifies. CB also said “potential”. He didn’t nail it down as fact. Models overestimate many times and again, I’m thankful. My electric bill will be big enough.
I’ll believe it (snow) when I see it…
Thanks Chris. I am happy to be here today and even though its cold, it is still a beautiful day. I would love to see a big snow, but if we don’t I reckon I will live. I know all of us snow lovers would love to see the ground covered with good snow for a good portion of the winter. And that we are all tired of seeing rain. But God still paints us a picture each day no matter what, if we look for it.
Have a fabulous Friday everyone!
I wish there was a LIKE button on here.
reality check! Model check!!
LIKE!
I love this comment
Excited to see how this all plays out. Oh my goodness, if the wind chill drops that cold forget about the pretty hair it will be boggin day with big scarf for me. That is some cold stuff headed our way for sure. We may not get to have school for sure if that plays out. Every body be careful and stay warm.
There are people on here that want to bash the models and talk negative when there is a storm brewing a week out. I see a different take on things in the coming weeks to a month….IMO….those same peeps are not posting as this Artic outbreak is about to smack them in the rear and they can’t handle the truth. This has always been a setup for a backloaded winter and it is about to unleash us into a frozen tundra, with multiple snow chances. Same song won’t be sung with cold air in place and an active southern jet.
BubbaG is about to get his 6-8 and then some. As is most of Kentucky and Tenn for that matter.
You said the magic words “a storm brewing a week out”..The way models have performed this winter no one should believe them,even if a storm is on top of you..Pretty much gotta now cast these days..
With the NAO teleconnection continuing its stubborn neutral-positive state, any cold severity and duration for our part of the world is not going to be maximized. This ‘hit and run’ scenario has been seen before in Kentucky. Even if this is the granddaddy polar vortex of them all, the coldest air will stay north and northeast of us.
The Euro model, which I like for 850mb temperatures up to a week out does not show a ‘polar vortex’ affecting our region until next Saturday, which is a little bit past its ‘accuracy limits’. We may get brushed with impressive cold air this upcoming week, yes, the average temperatures will likely be below normal, but the coldest air probably will not penetrate farther south, along with all of those favored tracks for impressive snowfall, until we see a change in the NAO teleconnection pattern, “The Keeper of the Cold”. Just my bold opinion.
Again, the million dollar question is why hasn’t the PV split had any impact on the NAO. This is the missing part of the equation throwing off the snowfall in KY so far this miserable winter as NAO was predicted to go negative a lot this winter but has failed us, so far.
Do you have any thoughts on this as I haven’t found much explanation out there yet!?
I would not call this a miserable winter unless you expect above normal snowfall for the entire winter season. We are two 10ths above avg here in Louisville and besides all the rain, which has been around since last Derby, the weather has not been miserable. Not sure were you reside Terry, so in your case I think it could be miserable!!!
I may have 2 tenths of a inch of snow for the season so far so its a matter of perspective and location
agree, been brutal here. We’ve watched it snow all around.
NAO is the hardest to predict from what i’ve read,No idea why..But according to the weeklies and some tweets “Retrograding NAO block on the Euro weeklies, originating in the Kara Sea/Scandinavia and ending up in Canada. This fits perfectly with the progression of subseasonal tropical pacific forcing and in the wake of the SSW.It’s not just a fantasy, folks.” ..Guess we wait and see..
LOL sounds like something oughtta Star Wars.
lol..Yep..Gotta have wikipedia following some of these Mets..
In Rodger’s 52 years, it always seems the last week of January is the coldest of the winter. He doesn’t remember any “arctic snow” amounting to much though. ALWAYS best to get southern moisture interacting with cold to generate good snow. Maybe the Euro is right but isn’t it known for not handling southern energy very well? 52 years of experience also tells Rodger that many of our best snows were not predicted at all more than a day or two out. You never know! This is Rodger in Dodger.
Might as well bring out the icon..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019012512&fh=114
very interesting seeing that from the icon, which is usually conservative. With the model fails this winter in se ky, not full hype mode yet. lets see what the weekend runs do…
Currently at 32 degrees at my location windchill 26.