Good Sunday, everyone. The week ahead continues to feature a very harsh look as bitterly cold air takes control of the pattern. This air will be introduced by a snow maker rolling in here Monday night and Tuesday, and should feature additional snow chances later in the week.
Let’s begin with a period of light snow and light rain rolling across the state early today. This system moves through quickly, leaving us with better weather this afternoon and evening…
Our Arctic front is going to slam in here Monday night and will feature a wave of low pressure along it. As we have talked about, most of the precipitation falls behind the front, giving us our region the increasing potential to put snow on the ground. That’s especially true for central and eastern parts of the state.
The NAM shows what I’m talking about…
As expected, the GFS continues to shift west with the whole setup and is also picking up on the light snow maker zipping in behind it on Wednesday…
The above map is only for the arctic front snow potential and doesn’t include the Wednesday system. That second system is a likely arctic snow maker for most of the region.
The Hi Res NAM only goes through Monday night, but shows the beginning of a similar look to the above maps…
In the bizzaro land of model mania, the European Model is the lone dog in now showing more of a progressive system. It looks a little suspect with all that action down along the Gulf…
For areas getting snow, blowing snow will be an issue as winds will absolutely crank during this time! Travel conditions Monday night and Tuesday could go downhill very quickly across central and eastern Kentucky.
Bitterly cold temps slam in behind this system on Tuesday, with the coldest arriving for Wednesday and Thursday. Air temps may drop to zero or below in some parts of the state. Wind chills from Tuesday night through early Friday will be in the danger category. Wind chills by Wednesday morning are already as low as -20 on the NAM…
As the Polar Vortex relaxes later in the week into the weekend, watch for another potential snow maker to work in from the west.
I will have updates later today and maybe a First Call Map for Monday night and Tuesday. Have a good one and take care.
bizzaro land indeed, when the euro doesn’t even have the ukmet in it’s corner.
WKY snow drought continues
NWS Jackson now forecasting heavy snow Tuesday for my location.
Where to do you find it on the web site? I am not as savvy at reading these maps as everyone else but it was showing on the 48 hour short range just rain. I would love to get snow.
I found it. Looks like Eastern KY is in play for this one. Just east of me.
It’s the point forecast you get from clicking on the map: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-82.8358840942383&lat=37.05134114076333
If the weaker system on Wednesday verifies, it could easily put down a few inches due to extrem cold air = high ratio:)
WPC almost has SE KY in moderate risk to exceed 4 inches for Tuesday!
Starting to get excited but trying not to just yet.
We are officially in a rut when it comes to REAL snow. 2″ here, 1″ there, maybe 3″ sprinkled in. Just enough to tease snow lovers, and we keep coming back for more.
The days of 6″+ are far and few between. I’d say 360 out of the 365 days a year, the weather is boring for snow lovers.
There’s always that “potential” though. We can hope for a hail mary to land.
Totally agree give us a real snow … I’ll take 20 inches
I wanna be snowed in a few days
Well, again we did get three record snows just a few year ago. The catch being the gap was almost eighteen years. Even with that gap though, I do not recall two wimpy snow years in a row, like this appears to be heading. Last year was supposed to be lots of snow chances too, but only one panned out in spring.
I remember a few years ago…….I don’t remember the year. We had an arctic front come through at night. It was a total blizzard for like an hour and I think we ended up with 2 inches or something and then the temps dropped and it was bitterly cold. Very similar to this forecast. I recorded it. The date says 2013 but I’ve moved the file several times so I’m not sure if windows has the date correct.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCbm8F_4Ups&feature=youtu.be
Love it
Amazing! Thanks for sharing!
Thanks for sharing!
If it could had lasted only 3 hours plus, that would likely have qualified as a blizzard. Thanks for posting!
COOL !!!!
A couple days of arctic cold. Back to 50 by Sunday. Must mean the rain train is pulling into the station next weekend.
Alright, today we get into the 48 hour range where the short range models are reliable. Time to forget the globals. Exciting!
Looks to be the first real widespread accumulation for East TN/SE KY.
The progressive nature makes me think under 3 inches but the models are trending for a little longer duration. Fingers crossed for an overachieving event!:)
Indeed! It’s our best shot this season. SREF Plumes look decent too.
Eighteen inches or more is a snowstorm in my book. These fast moving clippers with very little moisture are only half of the energy needed to make a real snow event. You need the Subtropical jet ( + ) to combine with the Polar jet ( – ) to get a complete storm. How do you think Nor’ Easters form ? The Gulf is currently cut off by the westerlies due to the southwest edge of the very cold Polar Vortex in northeastern Canada. Western and central Canada is where our cold air is coming from. It’s been a long time since we had a low pressure in the western gulf combining with the Polar jet to make a complete storm. Sometimes we forget that it’s the solar activity that’s causing our weather. Everything that exist is electromagnetic due to that great star that is needed for life to exist on Earth. I hope that the weather pattern changes soon and everyone who wants snow will get their share. Keep good positive thoughts.
But, if you get low pressure riding along that southwest edge, what do you think is going to happen? Some big Nor’easters have resulted from setups related to Polar Vortex
Don’t question Schroeder, he’s a weather genius who knows more than Chris. He has stated so himself and can’t say I’m lying about that. We are all so lucky for him to bring his vast weather knowledge to this board.
I have been studying meteorology events for over fifty years. I know what I’m talking about.
Then put your forecast up next to Chris’s then Schroeder. Please stick to your own wishes about the board and post the current temperature and weather conditions where you live only. Thank you.
Okay, I can do that. At the present it’s 46.4 degrees and partly sunny and the barometer is steady. I really don’t care for all those weather models and all the web cams on Chris’s blog. However I like the radar the best.
Wrong ! It takes a positive and a negative coming together to make a complete Nor’Easter. Of all commentators on here I would think everyone would know that by now. Meteorology 101.
Sounds like you could use another break from the blog.
Look, I enjoy talking meteorology and I will never get tried of the profession. I’m addicted to this site and I don’t want to be. This is why when someone on the blog hurts my feelings I quit and then I come back. It’s a real illness and the only solution out of it is for Chris to ban me from posting.
Wuh? Six inches or more I think counts for one. 18 inches is not normal and we get those about once or twice a decade on average. Few years ago was a a record setting fluke, getting three in a year. Even CB said that could be a once in a lifetime twelve month event.
Back in the 50’s and 60’s eighteen inch snowstorms were common especially in February and March.
Saw thousands of blackbirds heading South.
Thanks for the updates CB. Even if there isn’t 4+ inches of snow on the ground, seems like those temps with wind chills would be enough to cancel school for many areas?
I’m going out on a limb and giving my snowfall “firstcall”. Ashland 0-1/2 of snow. I’m just guessing based on forecasters, whatever they say I give the opposite forecast and 99 percent of the time I’m right lol.
And I don’t even have a million dollar radar system. I’m all about pinching pennies!!
All they seem to be forecasting in that area is bitter cold and sno snow hardly
When you live in the tri-state always take the low number for instance 1 to 3 inches. Go with 1 or a coating to an inch. Go with coating. One thing I have learned over the years here. Hope for the best (accumulating snow) but expect the worst (flurries or rain)
GUESS we’ll see haha
Sorry tv station that I like…but 2 days ago they had Monday high at 32…this morning 47(come on!!!). Today it’s already 35. Most people say don’t look at their apps for weather and temperature, but I believe currently they are more accurate. To me this looks like a quick hit of cold and back to normal Temps by Friday.
The term polar vortex Sounds to me like a amusement park roller coaster. You wait in line forever for the ride, it’s over in less than two minutes, it’s wasnt that bad after all, then go straight to the front and ride the log water boat
If there was a “like” button I would click it for your comment. This is so true.
I only like far S.E. Ky chances for a 2″ or more snowfall Monday night.
Yes! Me too:)
Still trying not to be overly excited but the snow looks heavy enough for a decent ground cover at my house. Too bad it is so progressive as it could be several inches if we could only tack on a few more hours of duration!
12z nam and gfs just sided w/ the euro. If you never want to see a good snow, just move to middle tn. the last snow we had here in lewis county that we could actually play in was 2011
You did not get any of the three record snow a few years ago?
Doesn’t appear to be substantial change for far SE KY/E TN from any of the runs. Looks to be holding.
But the UKMet seems to show a decent precip amount, based off of the limited maps I can see? If someone has better access to these, can you please update on what it shows?
na… one of those we got 3 inches of sleet. the other 2 were no more than an inch or so. yeah, you guys up in Kentucky got 7, 8, 9 inches from those.
? WKY did well 11/14-15 as well as last weekend with Winter Storm Hunter. Compared to WTN…you shouldn’t be complaining.
Looks likes major warmup coming for the Eastern Part of the country in the first couple of weeks of February.
Too far out to predict a warm up.
Looks like Northern Alabama and Northern Georgia might get a big part of the storm Tuesday.
Storm hasn’t formed yet.
Storm has formed it’s over North Dakota check the national radar.
That’s the Clipper only half of the storm. How many times do I have to post this ? Geeze
Gonna be a miss looks like, ankle biter again at best, I hope… but, I bet there will still be “potential” for snow again, as well as potential for warm weather sometime during the summer haha
Anyone had this happen?
Three days out from possible snowstorm- “Yes! Looks like a whopper for my area! Models looking good!”
Two days out from possible snowstorm- “Snowmaps are out and my area is set for the bullseye!”
One day out from snowstorm- “Models showing a slight shift north, but still hopeful.”
Day of expected snowstorm-“Slept through the dusting!”
I am grateful for this blog and all the daily models. Just hoping for one snows that blankets all of KY.
Terry, you still remaining faithful for the 3 inches in eastern ky?
Hope it’s just another word, when have nothing else to lose.