Good Monday, everyone. Our arctic front continues to slide toward the region and will crash in tonight and Tuesday. That will bring bitterly cold temps and brutal wind chills for the middle and end of the week. It will also produce a round of snow tonight and Tuesday that can lay down a few inches, especially in the southeast.
As of this writing, a Winter Storm Watch had been issued for southeastern Kentucky into Tuesday. I suspect much of this area and surrounding areas may be in a Winter Weather Advisory before all is said and done…
The arctic front bringing the snow sweeps in from northwest to southeast this evening into overnight. The snow band behind this increases the farther east and southeast you go in the state. That’s what complicates the snowfall forecast because it’s difficult to pinpoint where it starts to increase.
Here’s Your First Call For Snowfall…
The western side of those lines can are iffy, but I’m leaving wiggle room.
Gusty winds will blow around whatever snow you get outside your house into Tuesday. Wind chills on Tuesday are in the single digits and that’s warm compared to Wednesday and Thursday.
A second arctic system moves through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, bringing another period of light snow to much of the state.
Temps behind this drop all day long on Wednesday as winds absolutely crank. Lows can reach zero or a little below through Thursday. Wind chill readings should be consistently below zero Tuesday night through Thursday…
Those are dangerous numbers showing up.
As the bitter cold eases on Friday, we watch for the potential for an overrunning setup that can deliver winter weather to the region.
I did a lot of travelling over the weekend, so my posts weren’t as frequent as normal. I will get back to that today. 🙂
Have a good Monday and take care.
I notice no models runs in this post must mean storm not producing.
Hadn’t noticed that! You are absolutely right. Forecast isn’t turning out quite like Chris has been predicting, is it?
He never promised anything… snow fanatics promised snow in their own heads
No one said he “promised” anything, did they. Perhaps you’re the one hearing things in your head. All anyone said is it isn’t turning out how CB had been predicting. Which, as previous posts prove, is a fact. And I am not bashing CB. He has a very tough job, especially in this region.
What happen to the low presser that Chris talked about riding up the front a day or two ago? Poof it’s gone. Not a big deal other than the cold air coming.
Interestingly NWS Jackson just upped the snowfall totals for my area, now giving 3-5 inches total accumulation. Will be watching closely today to see if they stick with it or go more towards Chris’ line of thinking. Either way I feel like this is the best chance we got of getting a decent snow down here for a long while.
They have knocked me down to less than an inch
Yeah. Ridiculous but GFS matches this and has been unexpectedly accurate for several weeks now. GURR!!!
Yea NWS cut forecast number in half.
Well I see the tri- state in the coating to 2 inch range again. Looks like another nonevent for the snow as I know I am staring at a dusting. With 50+ temps back by the weekend. I hope you do better than me with the accumulation Terry.
Terrible! Less than 1 inch now GFS for Harlan.
As I continue to stand by my RIP winter…..I ask again wheres the snow….
I am going on a small break from the blog myself! I am #SuperCrankyTerry as nothing is working for this miserable winter and I want to be respectful to Chris and have been negative lately. Hope we all get some snow that want on here at some point but not in Spring.
Not being negative, because Ive been reading the blog in the winter for years, but you have to take it with a grain of salt and balance it out with what other sources are saying. There is a reason that most meteorologists don’t give snow totals until a day before. Colorful maps with huge totals are fun to look at and daydream about, but rarely come true. It’s the same cycle for every storm. “Big things are coming, this run is huge, someone is getting a ton”. Then the day before it’s a dusting to an inch and moving on to the next thing showing up. But people keep flocking to it, so he keeps putting it out. Read it, daydream about it, but be realistic. My only issue is when readers see these crazy model runs, take them as the gospel, and attack others mets or the NWS for not forecasting the same thing.
The models have been horrible this year even inside 24 hours. I went to bed last night and AccuWeather (model read) was giving 2-4 inches, I wake up today and not even a snowflake in the forecast. Just like most of the winter the temps also keep creeping up the closer we get to the much talked about Arctic Vortex. I personally can’t wait unitl spring time. You are better off just looking out the window for a forecast than relying on anything more than a few hours out as far as winter precipitation goes.
You are absolutely right about that.
Louisville in Mississippi will likely see more snowfall than Louisville KY from this upcoming system.
You starting to come around to the trends? It’s just not happening this winter
Jefferson county in Alabama (Birmingham) expecting more snowfall than Jefferson County in Kentucky (Louisville)
Even Hattiesburg MS, less than an hour’s drive to the Gulf Coast, might receive more snow than my area.
Long range models have gotten so bad, suppose I’ll just wait until short range from here on out.
Better wait til bout 20 min before haha, or jump on the train …. Choo Choo haha. I like the hint in the post that there is another potential, possible, system coming . Can’t wait to see those models, haha, will at least give everyone something to talk about
16 inches is the average yearly snowfall for the Lexington area, I believe. We will be fortunate to see 1/2 of that this year.
Folks might need to accept that we probably are the fence this winter. The systems have literally missed from all four directions and were false outlooks days out, each time.
The epic December miss seems to have been a harbinger of a lame winter. The words snow and storm, taken over by action, regional and wild. CB is forced to try and make lemonade out of plastic lemons (models).
We are not in charge of weather thank goodness but for some reason we put our faith in models and long range forecasting including me it has been terrible this winter no matter how much they tell you their right it has been flat out horrible I’m now I’ll believe it when I see it except for rain and 50s you know that will happen
YAY….. another coating 🙁
So our winter month will now consist of Feb 15 – March 15. The early predictions of a cold and snowy winter, by every weather outlet in the country has been a bust. My prediction of of a backloaded cold and snowy winter is still on the table, but only at half now. I was figuring it would have started by now. So we get four days of bitter cold that pushes the storms way south then a warm up to rain does not seem to harsh to me just a nuisance. Thanks for all you do CB and I look forward to seeing what the last few weeks of winter brings us.
It has been, just not Fencetucky 😉
No fence, man.
…an overriding system Friday…is that morning or evening? Not ice, please!
No worries, temps too warm this weekend
It’s possible late Thursday night into Friday. It won’t last even if it does occur. Temperatures nearing 50 by Saturday and near 60 on Sunday and maybe lower 60’s by this time next week.
I know most will laugh or ridicule this, but I think weather is even harder to predict now because of Global Warming / Climate Change. I cant even begin to say if its man made or just a natural cycle. But until there is a consensus that this is really happening, and that data is included in model and man predicting. The forecasts will continue to be more and more wrong.
Just my humble option.
It never has been easy to predict in this area. The models and mets have been wrong over the years but i don’t blame them for missing because it’s a game of miles. A few miles one way or the other could mean boom or bust.
I agree with you Bryan. Much harder these days.
I indicated last September that this winter 2018-19 would ” not be much of a winter ” and that has panned out so far. I made this prediction on the bases of being in an ENSO- neutral pattern which we are still in with now a ENSO- El Nino being kicked down the road into February 2019. Climate change is real and is happening. Winters start latter and are short maybe two weeks with or without snow. This winter event is mostly about frigid temperatures for a few days at the end of the week. What concerns me, Chris mentioned ” overrunning ” which scares me because this could mean an ICE STORM event in the shallow cold air. Lets just hope the warm front makes it up to the north before the ice accumulates and causes power failures and tree damage. The heaviest snow from a clipper tonight and tomorrow will be in southeast Wisconsin forecasters say.
Climate change is not real…..climate cycles are real. We had more snow and cold this past November which was an early start to winter than most years in my lifetime…..if trends continue we will have colder than normal in March into April….it’s just the cycle.
Climate change may not be manmade but it is most certainly real. Had you lives through winters before the mid 90’s you might understand…and NO, “we”, the overwhelming majority, did not have more cold and snow this past November though you may have had some.
Lol I was here before the mid 90s….. Genesis 8:22 KJV
While the earth remaineth, seedtime and harvest, and cold and heat, and summer and winter, and day and night shall not cease…..I have more faith in this than I do the government making up stuff to create more laws to tax more people…but that’s not politically correct I guess…..cycles cycles cycles
You have your opinion and I’ll have mine…. the one that was derived from common sense and my own observations and reasoning rather those from the government or the bible….
Having your own opinion is your right…..add a dollar to it and you can buy a cup of coffee….lol. however the thought that your opinion is higher than God’s opinion is far from common sense.
In my part of Richmond we had, perhaps an inch of snow in November. Does that count as “more”? we have had, perhaps, three inches of snow all winter.
Schroeder please stick to reporting what the weather is currently around you and not trying to forecast. It will make this blog much more friendly with less negativity. Thank you.
Okay currently I have 28 degrees with very heavy snow falling. Already I have 40 inches on the ground. Forecast from the past.
Thanks.
It’s not me making the forum negative. I’m just giving everyone what I have discovered. I was absent from this forum for a month and I read Chris’s blog everyday and the comment section was very negative in December 2018.
Take a longer absence…
SHUT UP RALPHIE !!!!!!!!!
Schroeder you say you’re not being negative? Sounds like you need to look in the mirror after that post.
Jeepers, until you brought up the CC comment, I thought your note was plausible. I think I’m aiding with the Hamster now.
Schroeder is delusional.
No I’m educated.
I have a science degree and MBA, so am ‘edunucated’ too 😉
Man made CC = BS. 🙂
Thanks.
Really Climate change is hard to prove. Too many factors out there. But I sometimes see a weather event on the satellite maps and wonder what is causing this to occur. Maybe the climate is being controlled by some faction and not nature.
Thanks
Thanks.
Looks like the (old) GFS is going to get this one more or less right.
Anybody keeping score? I don’t recall which model was closest to reality with the storm 2 weeks ago. I do remember Euro was way off in left field predicting a 2003-caliber ice storm for central KY.
How do I describe this Winter? Wimpy Wimpy Wimpy!
Looking at the Apps. Two days of cold and back on the rain train for the next 10-15. I remember reading and watching Mets telling folks to keep an eye on February 1-2. Hardly a harsh Winter. Call me crazy, but there is something wrong in the climate when you go from a high 50 to 18, then to 60 all in one week.
We’ve been hearing about this frightening Polar Vortex since Christmas (not from CB) and it will be around barely for 1-2 days. We aren’t taking about moderating into the 30s but all the way up to 50s and 60s. I’d reboot the computers.
Why does nws still have a winter weather advisory issued when the short range models are clearly showing no snow for Kentucky?
Cold without snow is NO FUN! 55 in Rodger’s backyard by Sunday with rain. 90% chance of disappointment for snow lovers this year! Rodger in Dodger
Looks like 12z NAM has jumped off the snow train completely!!
Buhahahahaha..Nam 3k..Really can’t blame the models..This started going down hill 3 or 4 days ago..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019012812&fh=23
I just can’t wait for the next great model run advertising 30″ for eastern KY in 10 days. I’m sure it’s out there, lol. Oh well, more rain and gray. Yay.
Wow, what a complete collapse. Went from a decent arctic wave producing 2-4″ to absolutely zilch. The much hyped “polar vortex” is nothing more than a hit and run cold shot following by 50’s for the weekend.
Winter is dead around these parts. Easily the most disappointing winter we’ve seen in some years. I would say bring on spring, but we all know it will be wet (surprise), gray and cold (surprise. Kentucky weather just sucks folks.
Yep. A lot to look forward to in this state. Might of turned into one of the worst climates in the U.S. Winters have very little snow and it rains all year. Sunshine = improved health and you just don’t get too many dry sunny days in this state.
Terrible take.
As usual, your quick retorts, but no discussion points.
What’s your “take”? This winter leaves a lot to be desired. Very little snow, hit and run cold … Rodger in Dodger
And just like that, the 12z NAM is in showing little to no snow for any KY location….just another quick moving rain with backside flurries! Not disappointed in the least because deep down we ALL knew this would be the outcome. The trend never fails…wrap it up in a newspaper and file it under wimp winters…those 76-77 analogs didn’t work out very well did they Bastardi?
Just my opinion but don’t think analogs are worth much with the changing climate/global warming/climate cycles or whatever you want to call it..Now with that said I always thought from what i’ve read with global warming we were to have colder and snowier winters..Yea right..
Will Nws cancel the winter weather advisory?
I suspect they will after the evening model runs.
I believe the winter storm watch for areas of KY posted last night has been downgraded to an advisory.
CBs silence the last two days says a lot.
Totally agree.. no tweet and minimal updates. He knows we are in for nothing lol
I have a feeling his coating to 2 inch call will change with the next update
Nothing to a coating 😉
12z GFS is the only current model showing and snowfall for any of ky. Just a small dusting.
Yes we probably will end up with flurries and some cold.
It’s a beautiful day here.. sunny and on the warm side.
Makes me wish for spring. I believe I would just like the weather to remain nice and warm from here on out.
This is the NWS zone forecast for Laurel County KY for this weekend. Where’s the prolonged, harsh period? Like I said, they don’t get much worse than this winter.
Friday
A chance of snow before noon, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday Night
A 10 percent chance of rain before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 50.
Saturday Night
A chance of rain and snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday
A 50 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 56
What’s wrong with Partly sunny, with a high near 50?
Sounds like I need to hang out in London this Saturday.
Looks like all the snow went to Michigan just talked to my brother who live in Grand Rapids and he said it’s been snowing heavily for the past 2 hours.
Crushing, harsh,polar vortex,prolonged, blankety blanketyblank million people affected by a storm or cold weather it’s all a sale tactics use all these big adjectives it gets attention I think it’s ridiculous
Truth.
I think there should be an echo for effect, whenever mets say Polar Vortex! 🙂 Booyah!
People, get a grip. The comments section here used to be educational and insightful. Now it’s overrun with a bunch of complaining. I understand disappointment about snow forecasts not panning out. I don’t understand being depressed over it. If the snow means that much to you, MOVE SOMEWHERE ELSE.
if no snow is coming I will take 50 and sun anytime over that.
Just wasted cold air!
The models have been a waste of time, none of them are right when it comes to snow. This winter is depressing, a lot of cold and no snow, and when we do have precipitation, its almost always rain with wrap around flurries. It isn’t anyone’s fault, but the models need to seriously be looked into.
What is it with weather models and this area? Just one epic fail after another. At this point the Icon will come out the winner, that’s how far we’ve fallen.