Good afternoon, folks. Our light snow maker on the way for later this evening into tonight continues to focus more and more on the southern half of the state. This is where a narrow corridor of wet snow will fall as low pressure zips across the Tennessee Valley into early Saturday.
The New Call For Snowfall shows the south shift…
Once again, that is a super sharp northern cutoff on the wet snow line, and yes, this is a wet snow. Do I expect the entire corridor of 1″-3″ to pick up between 1″ and 3″ of snow? Probably not, but within that region is where the snow swath is likely to show up.
As of this writing, none of southeastern Kentucky has been put under the Winter Weather Advisory…
That’s the region covered by the NWS in Jackson.
Many of these areas are still in the 50s, but cold air is crashing in from the west and northwest. As the precipitation moves in, it starts as rain then goes over to a mix then a quick-hitting period of wet snow. Snowfall rates will overcome the warm ground to cause some slick travel overnight for areas getting in on the “snow zone”.
Here are your tracking tools to watch the action overspread the region from the west…
Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio Lexington
I-75 @ Newtown Pike Lexington
-75/I-64 Southern Split Lexington
Georgetown
I-64 at KY-801 Near Morehead
I-64 MP 97 Winchester
Mountain Parkway near Slade
London
Pine Mountain
Jenkins
Florence
Covington
Louisville
E-town
Bowling Green
Paducah
I will update as needed. Have a good one and take care.
I can see a lot of dry slotting in the Shepherdsville area. The radar will look impressive, but nothing coming from the sky, plus our ground temperatures have to be too warm. I guess thats why we`re showing an inch or less here. I think the WWA will be taken down, except for the parkway areas. I just wish we could get a 6 inch snow that sticks around for a few days.
Jimbo on February 15, 2019 at 12:37 pm
As is typical for the tri-state, I went from the sweet spot to nothing in less than 24 hours. I was going to say the only way to go is up as far as snowfall for next year but I could still get less than 4 inches next year. I am over it and out till next Thanksgiving, hope everyone enjoys the next 9 months, hopefully no bad events for anyone. Might check back in the event of a major weather story.
Terry on February 15, 2019 at 1:08 pm
‘Comon now,’ I need someone to talk to about record rain events.. LOL.
Dont leave until Easter in case my bold March prediction for our snowiest month comes true! Remember, a widespread 1 to 3 is all I need to be correct for March being the snowiest month for all of us except far northern KY and a patch or two of Central KY:)
Mid month analysis shows central Kentucky between 7 and 9 degrees above normal for this month. With no mention of another brief visit from the Arctic regions, and December along with January near or above average, meteorological winter is a bust for temperatures being below normal. Stubborn NAO teleconnection and no doubt other factors have railroaded the winter for most of us.
Troy on February 15, 2019 at 12:52 pm
Sorry but I think Jackson is making the right call on not jumping on the advisory train “just yet”…this looks to be a 95%+ rain event for the majority in SE KY.
SHAAK on February 15, 2019 at 5:12 pm
Trump = Daddy
Terry on February 15, 2019 at 1:02 pm
I hope Troy gets the most…LOL…Middlesboro is almost 0 annual-to-date. Harlan is terrible based upon average annual, but I at least received a few inches back in late November!
I root for Troy but want hold my breathe!
Troy on February 15, 2019 at 5:13 pm
lol Thanks Terry, but as you said…don’t hold your breath as Middlesboro will definitely get nothing from this nuisance. Our unique topography will shield our temps from dropping enough to support snow. In these situations when every location around us has snow falling it will be raining here 99 times out of 100. There’s no doubt this will be a 100% rain maker for Middlesboro.
BubbaG on February 15, 2019 at 1:07 pm
LOL! At this rate, Gatlinburg is getting some snow 😉 Models and snow are like an Ernest Does Weather movie 🙂
Schroeder on February 15, 2019 at 1:19 pm
Terry and Jimbo I really enjoy reading your comments on the weather blog. I still think you guys could or should have been meteorologist as well as Mike S.
Terry on February 15, 2019 at 1:40 pm
Old now. 36 years old and wasting away in Harlan…lol. I wish I would have listened to my mind and went years ago to Western KY then transferred out of state as WKU didn’t offer a bachelor’s back in the early 2000s….I think they do now though.
I almost went for it Schroeder. But, i am just an armchair weather geek:(
TennMark on February 15, 2019 at 2:04 pm
I’m about the same age as you Terry.
I’m actually a WKU grad. But beforehand in high school, I was steered more towards the engineering sciences rather than the natural sciences. Engineering, while interesting, just wasn’t a big calling. I ended up earning a business degree, but would frequently visit WKU’s weather facilities. I also wonder if I would be doing some kind of weather career today if I had listened more to my mind and heart.
Jimbo on February 15, 2019 at 2:40 pm
I am only replying because I was mentioned. Thanks to you Schroeder and Terry for the kind words. I look forward to checking out both your comments. But this Winter and more specifically the last 3 have beyond miserable and depressing. It has gotten old only having rain to talk about. I am hoping to move out of this area after I retire in 4 or 5 years. Hopefully to Maine or Vermont, I have been there a couple times and love both places. And snow isn’t the only reason I would consider those places. Another more important reason is to escape the horrible humidity around here.
Lucy on February 15, 2019 at 1:31 pm
CB does a great job; however models have gotten horrible. When it comes to snow, forecasts have gotten less accurate rather than more reliable.
TennMark on February 15, 2019 at 1:43 pm
The WPC is also indicating the area of freezing rain will mainly be along the KY-TN line, especially farther west. Not overly heavy amounts, but needless to say even a few millimeters of ice can cause havoc.
As much as I am tired of the rain, I’ll still take that over freezing rain. 🙂
Logan Butler on February 15, 2019 at 1:44 pm
This whole winter was a bust. Next to nothing in terms of decent snows. The current models need to be abandoned and new ones created.
BubbaG on February 15, 2019 at 3:07 pm
It will just take two big ones to get us to the 24″ to 30″ snow outlook 🙂 Keep snow hope alive!! 🙂
TennMark on February 15, 2019 at 1:47 pm
A sneak preview of the upcoming spring severe weather season (even if last year’s season was largely quiet).
This includes a statewide tornado drill (weather permitting) the morning of Feb 27.
Kentucky tends to hold its Severe Weather Awareness Week during the first week of March. Details to be released by Kentucky Emergency Management and area NWS offices.
Debbie on February 15, 2019 at 3:30 pm
I was getting ready to say, they normally do the drill within the first 2-3 weeks of March. Hmmm…?
TennMark on February 15, 2019 at 7:25 pm
That was the case when I lived in Kentucky (moved back to my home state of Tennessee in 2012). However, I think in the middle part of this decade Kentucky was having had their tornado drills in late February. Perhaps Kentucky moved their date back a week as a result of the infamous March 2 2012 tornado outbreak (including West Liberty).
But I just looked up that Kentucky last year had their Severe Weather Awareness Week in early March again. Not sure about 2019.
Todd on February 15, 2019 at 2:46 pm
Yesterday at this time frankfort was in a 1-4 in. snow area, now in the nothing zone, models are useless, Im still predicting a deck duster in this area 🙁
Jim B on February 15, 2019 at 5:22 pm
Next fall… front loaded winter coming….. January… no wait, it’s going to be backloaded lol…. end of February, 50s and rain….the trend rolls on
Terry on February 15, 2019 at 5:24 pm
BREAKING NEWS: Rain has arrived in Harlan….SURPRISE!…LOL…You have to make rain jokes/jesters at this point:)
UPSLOPE on February 15, 2019 at 5:29 pm
I honestly dont think 1-3 should constitute a WWA….except maybe a flash freeze with 1-3 on top of the ice
Debbie on February 15, 2019 at 5:33 pm
Snowing pretty good (off & on) in Bardstown right now. They just said on local TV it was NOT showing up on the ground…whatever…..)
Debbie on February 15, 2019 at 5:35 pm
Well, I meant, they said, it wasn’t showing up….I see it, so therefore….yes. It is.
Terry on February 15, 2019 at 5:39 pm
Send some to Harlan! 55 degrees here and very springy!
feederband on February 15, 2019 at 6:55 pm
Have a dusting on my deck near Iroquois Park. Pretty to look at.
BH on February 15, 2019 at 6:24 pm
Next move on the snow map is that it will be gone completely.
Andy Rose on February 15, 2019 at 6:42 pm
With it being 60 today there won’t be any sticking snow
Terry on February 15, 2019 at 6:58 pm
Still 50 in Harlan. Highly unlikely the cold catches the rain here except on Pine/Black Mt
Prelude on February 15, 2019 at 7:07 pm
That depends if you get a heavier snow burst that snow burst can overcome a warm ground
Cold-Rain on February 15, 2019 at 7:23 pm
Jesus..It’s just wave after wave of rain on the GFS..Where’s Hammy to tell us winter has just begun..
I’m okay with no snow as long as there’s no rain.
I can see a lot of dry slotting in the Shepherdsville area. The radar will look impressive, but nothing coming from the sky, plus our ground temperatures have to be too warm. I guess thats why we`re showing an inch or less here. I think the WWA will be taken down, except for the parkway areas. I just wish we could get a 6 inch snow that sticks around for a few days.
As is typical for the tri-state, I went from the sweet spot to nothing in less than 24 hours. I was going to say the only way to go is up as far as snowfall for next year but I could still get less than 4 inches next year. I am over it and out till next Thanksgiving, hope everyone enjoys the next 9 months, hopefully no bad events for anyone. Might check back in the event of a major weather story.
‘Comon now,’ I need someone to talk to about record rain events.. LOL.
Dont leave until Easter in case my bold March prediction for our snowiest month comes true! Remember, a widespread 1 to 3 is all I need to be correct for March being the snowiest month for all of us except far northern KY and a patch or two of Central KY:)
We are on track for less than four inches in my part of Richmond as well… I would say most places in KY are at less than four inches.
Mid month analysis shows central Kentucky between 7 and 9 degrees above normal for this month. With no mention of another brief visit from the Arctic regions, and December along with January near or above average, meteorological winter is a bust for temperatures being below normal.
Stubborn NAO teleconnection and no doubt other factors have railroaded the winter for most of us.
Sorry but I think Jackson is making the right call on not jumping on the advisory train “just yet”…this looks to be a 95%+ rain event for the majority in SE KY.
Trump = Daddy
I hope Troy gets the most…LOL…Middlesboro is almost 0 annual-to-date. Harlan is terrible based upon average annual, but I at least received a few inches back in late November!
I root for Troy but want hold my breathe!
lol Thanks Terry, but as you said…don’t hold your breath as Middlesboro will definitely get nothing from this nuisance. Our unique topography will shield our temps from dropping enough to support snow. In these situations when every location around us has snow falling it will be raining here 99 times out of 100. There’s no doubt this will be a 100% rain maker for Middlesboro.
LOL! At this rate, Gatlinburg is getting some snow 😉 Models and snow are like an Ernest Does Weather movie 🙂
Terry and Jimbo I really enjoy reading your comments on the weather blog. I still think you guys could or should have been meteorologist as well as Mike S.
Old now. 36 years old and wasting away in Harlan…lol. I wish I would have listened to my mind and went years ago to Western KY then transferred out of state as WKU didn’t offer a bachelor’s back in the early 2000s….I think they do now though.
I almost went for it Schroeder. But, i am just an armchair weather geek:(
I’m about the same age as you Terry.
I’m actually a WKU grad. But beforehand in high school, I was steered more towards the engineering sciences rather than the natural sciences. Engineering, while interesting, just wasn’t a big calling. I ended up earning a business degree, but would frequently visit WKU’s weather facilities. I also wonder if I would be doing some kind of weather career today if I had listened more to my mind and heart.
I am only replying because I was mentioned. Thanks to you Schroeder and Terry for the kind words. I look forward to checking out both your comments. But this Winter and more specifically the last 3 have beyond miserable and depressing. It has gotten old only having rain to talk about. I am hoping to move out of this area after I retire in 4 or 5 years. Hopefully to Maine or Vermont, I have been there a couple times and love both places. And snow isn’t the only reason I would consider those places. Another more important reason is to escape the horrible humidity around here.
CB does a great job; however models have gotten horrible. When it comes to snow, forecasts have gotten less accurate rather than more reliable.
The WPC is also indicating the area of freezing rain will mainly be along the KY-TN line, especially farther west. Not overly heavy amounts, but needless to say even a few millimeters of ice can cause havoc.
As much as I am tired of the rain, I’ll still take that over freezing rain. 🙂
This whole winter was a bust. Next to nothing in terms of decent snows. The current models need to be abandoned and new ones created.
It will just take two big ones to get us to the 24″ to 30″ snow outlook 🙂 Keep snow hope alive!! 🙂
A sneak preview of the upcoming spring severe weather season (even if last year’s season was largely quiet).
Tennessee will observe its 2019 Severe Weather Awareness Week from Feb 24 to March 2.
https://www.weather.gov/ohx/swaw2019
This includes a statewide tornado drill (weather permitting) the morning of Feb 27.
Kentucky tends to hold its Severe Weather Awareness Week during the first week of March. Details to be released by Kentucky Emergency Management and area NWS offices.
I was getting ready to say, they normally do the drill within the first 2-3 weeks of March. Hmmm…?
That was the case when I lived in Kentucky (moved back to my home state of Tennessee in 2012). However, I think in the middle part of this decade Kentucky was having had their tornado drills in late February. Perhaps Kentucky moved their date back a week as a result of the infamous March 2 2012 tornado outbreak (including West Liberty).
But I just looked up that Kentucky last year had their Severe Weather Awareness Week in early March again. Not sure about 2019.
Yesterday at this time frankfort was in a 1-4 in. snow area, now in the nothing zone, models are useless, Im still predicting a deck duster in this area 🙁
Next fall… front loaded winter coming….. January… no wait, it’s going to be backloaded lol…. end of February, 50s and rain….the trend rolls on
BREAKING NEWS: Rain has arrived in Harlan….SURPRISE!…LOL…You have to make rain jokes/jesters at this point:)
I honestly dont think 1-3 should constitute a WWA….except maybe a flash freeze with 1-3 on top of the ice
Snowing pretty good (off & on) in Bardstown right now. They just said on local TV it was NOT showing up on the ground…whatever…..)
Well, I meant, they said, it wasn’t showing up….I see it, so therefore….yes. It is.
Send some to Harlan! 55 degrees here and very springy!
Have a dusting on my deck near Iroquois Park. Pretty to look at.
Next move on the snow map is that it will be gone completely.
With it being 60 today there won’t be any sticking snow
Still 50 in Harlan. Highly unlikely the cold catches the rain here except on Pine/Black Mt
That depends if you get a heavier snow burst that snow burst can overcome a warm ground
Jesus..It’s just wave after wave of rain on the GFS..Where’s Hammy to tell us winter has just begun..