Good Monday everyone and thanks for dropping by KWC. We have a much advertised break from the heat early this week and you had better enjoy it. A massive heat wave across the plains states will roll into Kentucky by the end of the week and may bring record high temps to many areas. Ouch!
The scorching high temps over the weekend were aided by a parched ground and this has me concerned with the temps for late this week. We already know western Kentucky is well into a severe drought, but I am now putting the rest of the state on notice for drought conditions to develop over the next few weeks. A brown lawn does not constitute a drought and, as you know, I am not one to throw that word around very often. This looks more like a short term and agricultural deal for the central and east as the water table is in pretty good shape right now.
A cold front is dropping into the state today and may be able to fire off a scattered shower or thunderstorm. Temps today will be much cooler across the north as the west and south flirt with 90 before the front blows through. That sets us up for a gorgeous Tuesday with cooler temps. The GFS numbers for the next few days…
The comfy and pleasant air simply will not have staying power as it has two major forces working against it. Tropical Storm Debby down in the Gulf of Mexico won’t allow for this trough to dig very far south and a heat ridge in the plains bullies it from the west.
That heat ridge then balloons eastward into the Ohio Valley for the end of the week and weekend and may bring record high temps with it. The forecast numbers from the GFS look nasty…
That looks nasty and the heat is arriving just in time for the big NASCAR weekend at Kentucky Speedway.
A lot of what plays out by the end of the week will be dictated by exactly what happens with Tropical Storm Debby. This now looks like a Florida storm. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…
! ![[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0412W5_NL_sm2+gif/220751W5_NL_sm.gif)
This system isn’t being handled very well by many of the medium range forecast models. Several take this storm across Florida in a day or so and then back out into the Atlantic well off the east coast. The European Model does keep this as a big rainmaker across the deep south for several days…
You can see how the model also splits our heat wave by Sunday. Can Debby bring us some much needed rain? It’s, at least, a possibility as of now. It’s not likely by any means, but the longer it can hang around across the south, the better the chance we can tap some of its juice.
Have a great Monday and take care.
Really have hopes for for some rain. I noticed on mesonet that my county reported a decent rain June 16 but I can verify that it was all the northern to central areas because we had barely a sprinkle hear, not enough to register on the rain gauges. Looked good on the radar though and seems to have came close. But in the end nothing.
This happens EVERY time! Above normal rain for a couple of years, then drought and HOT summer the following.
I will say that the above normal rain years, it seems, are double what the drought years are……..But the drought is always in the summer, never winter. The winters seem to always be wet as a previous poster mentioned.
I think Kentucky Utilities much have gotten their act together with the meter reading. Last year was a mess each month; completely wrong every month with most months in their favor and they don’t estimate! This year has been totally different. For a while last year I thought something was wrong in my house causing my electricity to be a lot higher than normal, when it was just inaccurate meter readings.
much = must : D
I thought it was suppose to feel like September weather this week instead of June weather. ummmmmmmmmm what happened?
It DOES feel like September…and will so even more tomorrow. The heat doesn’t really hit in earnest until Thursday. Humidity won’t really hit until next weekend.
Nice here today at 87. Noticed the west was showing the 90’s on the mesonet. Seems about right for June here.
Wishing for some rain here. Have not had any at my place in at least a few weeks. Northern part of county had a nice 1 inch rain about 9 days ago but we received nothing.
I want whatever drugs your on.
It was a comfy 84 yesterday with no heat index. That’s as Septemberish as it gets. Look it up yourself if you’ve forgotten what September is like around here. 🙂
I thought it was suppose to feel like September weather this week instead of June weather. ummmmmmmmmm what happened?
“The scorching high temps over the weekend were aided by a parched ground” and “Tropical Storm Debby down in the Gulf of Mexico won’t allow for this trough to dig very far south and a heat ridge in the plains bullies it from the west.”