Good Saturday, everyone. I continue to beat the drum on a very active weather pattern that looks to be with us through the rest of the month. This will feature several potent cold fronts as the overall setup starts to take on more of a winter look.

Batting leadoff in the active weather pattern is Tropical Storm Nestor. This storm comes ashore early today in the Florida Panhandle…

cone graphic

That system is moving quickly toward the northeast, but should manage to throw some clouds in here today. Those clouds may produce some late day showers in the southeast…

Temps this weekend are pretty mild and should reach the 70s in most areas. This comes as we watch another potent plains storm system lift toward the Great Lakes on Monday. That drags a big time cold front across the state and this is likely to bring heavy rain producing showers and strong storms…

Gusty winds could become an issue as those storms blow through here.

Heavy rainfall numbers are also likely to show up. Some 1″-2″ rains may show up for many…

October is already above normal for rainfall and it’s likely to finish much above normal in many areas.

Yet another potent storm system should roll in here by the end of next week into next weekend. The evolution of this storm remains to be seen, but the pattern argues for a pretty big system that should also have a little cold air to work with on the northwest side of it. Here’s how the latest GFS sees it…

It’s no secret I’ve been pointing toward a very cold pattern taking control for the last week and change of October and likely rolling into early November, at least. If you’ve been reading the past few days, you’ve seen the consensus of the various Ensembles signalling some major troughs into the eastern part of the country.

The operational models have been all over this as well, but the overnight GFS is pretty darn awesome to see…

 

That’s a lot of very cold air showing up. One could easily argue this would be arctic air moving into the country. Obviously, with such cold temps, winter weather continues to show up on the models…

I will drop by for another update later today, so roll back in here. Until then, have a sensational Saturday and take care.