Good Thursday, everyone. We have a surge of modified arctic air sweeping into the region today, but this is just the opening act for a much bigger surge of winter weather early next week. That will be complete with the real deal arctic cold and even the potential for snow.
Let’s start with where we are today and roll forward. Rain becomes widespread this morning as our front drops in here from the northwest. That’s going to set up a big temperature drop behind this front as the 30s show up very quickly. As that happens, a few snowflakes try to mix in on the back edge of the departing rain shield. Here are your early Thursday radars…
As that strong northwesterly wind flow kicks in, a few flakes may also show up in southeastern Kentucky after the main band of precip pushes out. Those same gusty winds will give us some ugly wind chill numbers. Check out the numbers through early Friday…
Actual lows by Friday morning have a chance to hit the teens in some of the coldest valleys…
Highs on Friday may stay in the 30s for many, with the winds making it feel colder. Readings drop into the 20s during high school playoff games that evening.
Saturday is a seasonally chilly day with 20s in the morning and mid and upper 40s in the afternoon. The 50s return for Sunday as winds gust up ahead of our arctic blast arriving on Monday. The arctic front moving in here is likely to have a band of rain in front of it and snow behind it. There could be a wave of low pressure along the front to enhance the snow chances for Monday into Tuesday. All the models see this, but show their usual differences from a few days away…
EUROPEAN
GFS
CANADIAN
ICON
The air coming in behind our front could bring record or near record lows into our region. Some of the latest runs are showing historic cold for this early in the season…
GFS
I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.
They have taken the rain snow mix out of the forecast here in Southern Ohio where I live for tonight. Now just calling for 100% chance of rain today and tonight.
Ever single model run (Major Models) this morning would be a solid 3 inches plus for a large area of KY, especially SE KY. IF, the key word, this 4 day away setup isnt a fantasy but actually become a reality Monday night, it would be more snow than I received for the ENTIRE SEASON of 2018-2019. Also, this would be the largest November snow in many, many years!
3 inches here would be more than Middlesboro has seen in the past 2 winters combined and then some
Yup
Terry, glad to see you back commenting. Certainly a very interesting winter pattern setting up for early next week. Wednesday the 13th is my birthday maybe we will have snow on the ground. In the latest runs I see phasing of the Polar jet and Subtropical jet over the southern plains. Bring on the SNOW !!!
A November snow would be nice. I don’t think I have ever experienced anything more than a few flakes in the air in November, in my part of Richmond, anyway.
This is the time of year when I begin to think of the first snow days for the schools and the kids. Rarely do we have any in November. I guess when it has snowed the roads were often warm enough where there wasn’t much disruption. This doesn’t look to be the case with all the cold air on the way… We’ll see.
I don’t put much stock in what the computer’s put out 5 days out when it comes to snow. There a little better at forecasting rain in that time period. Back in the 50’s and 60 we did get some snows. But most of the time the snow came later on in the winter. I have learned over the years don’t get your shovel out until it’s on the ground.
I was speaking of early snows in November above.
If it does snow it will probably be a wet snow. Asphalt will stay wet.
Wet snow is the best kind of snow, but if it is more than twenty inches, it would cause power outages and trees would come down. Around ten inches is enough to build a snowman.
Can’t remember the last time winter started in November. We’re due for a winter where the cold sets in early and stays with snow on the ground all winter. For the longest time now, our winters have been back loaded.
Cincinnati had 5 inches of snow in November 2014 with below freezing temps for an extended period of time. Then the following February was simply awful. I am sure Chris will make note of this at some point.
I know you’ve all have heard of the winter of 77&78 and I hope you younger snow lovers get to see a winter like that. I always liked it when it snowed. But let me tell you I found out what cabin fever was. I could not wait to see the ground again that coming spring. Now I like to see it snow around Christmas but after that I’m ready to see 75 to 80 degrees.