Good Thursday, folks. Here’s hoping this update finds you living your best life! It’s a really good looking day in Kentucky, but that changes in a hurry by Friday. That’s when some ugly works in here and that’s the opening act toward a much bigger system arriving by Monday. That one looks to unlock arctic air and possible winter weather.
Let’s start with our Friday system. It’s a chilly rain maker rolling from west to east…
Rainfall may be from a quarter to a half inch for some…
From here, we have arctic air diving into the country and largely taking control of the pattern. An arctic front moves our way early next week and is likely to have low pressure along it or a series of weak lows. We’re now in the time frame where we find the models handling everything differently from run to run.
The setup, to me, looks like rain and wind Monday into Monday night as temps spike to near 60. As the front moves through, temps tank from west to east on Tuesday as rain changes to, at least, some snow. Winds will be gusty and could reach 35mph at times. Arctic air then settles in late Tuesday into Wednesday as we watch for a weak system working in from the northwest. That could be followed up by a bigger system late next week.
As mentioned, the models look pretty different from one run to the next, so we are just taking them as snapshots…
GFS
Canadian
Euro
Have no fear, the next run will have something different in terms of the evolution and precipitation coverage, type and timing.
This continues to look like a colder than normal pattern through much of the month of December. While it doesn’t mean there can’t be some spikes in there, it means the overall averages are skewed cold.
The GFS Ensembles keep showing some way below normal numbers…
Keep in mind, the farther out in time, the harder it is to see big departures one way or the other, so the model smooths it out.
Here’s what the same model has for the average temperature departure from December 11 through December 21…
I will have updates later today. Until then, have a good one and take care.
Oh that 53 Degrees yesterday felt wonderful
That evolution looks like possible “threat” level material right now, but it’s definitely got a weird evolution, the GFS included. The Canadian seems to be more plausible, but even it is having issues with the precipitation shield. This, as for now, looks like a chance at some snow for the eastern half of the state.
I’m rooting for snow.
Nobody wants to comment on the AO and NAO oscillations? They don’t seem to offer any hint of sustainable ‘real deal’ cold. Sure, a brief blast of cold offset by milder readings. Just look at how this will likely play out for this first full week of December (1-7) now. Most locations will have near to above normal temperatures for this time frame. A far cry from what was expected for the beginning of December.
Nobody wants to comment on the AO and NAO oscillations? They don’t seem to offer any hint of sustainable ‘real deal’ cold. Sure, a brief shot of cold offset by milder readings. Just look at how this will likely play out for this first full week of December (1-7) now. Most locations will have near to above normal temperatures for this time frame. A far cry from what was expected for the beginning of December.
Comments on AO and NAO oscillations from GFS ensemble members? Even the Euro does not see ‘real deal’ cold sustained for any length of time. Look at happens for this first full week of December (1-7) now. Most of central Kentucky and west Kentucky will have temperatures near or above average, a far cry from what was expected.
Comments on AO and NAO oscillations from GFS Ensembles? Where’s the cold? First seven days of December will be near to above normal temperatures for most now. Much different than what was expected.
Must be busy on here. Comments on AO and NAO teleconnections?
Cold rain. Bleh.
Cold rain is not my kind of busy. Yuck.