Good Tuesday, everyone. We have a blast of winter weather pushing into parts of Kentucky today. This comes as temps crash behind an arctic front blowing across the state. This is the first in a series of potential winter weather makers showing up over the next week.
Let’s kick things off with the current winter weather maker. This one continues to focus the greatest winter weather threat across the southeastern part of the state. That’s where accumulating snow is likely through tonight. This looks to come in a few waves during this time.
There’s going to be one heck of a sharp cutoff on the western and northwestern side of the snow. Where that sets up is likely a play by play call.
Here’s my latest stab at the snowfall…
A number of things will impact the totals, from a wet ground, to changeover times, to some sleet. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.
Once this clears out of the state later tonight, we get a few days of decent weather, then it’s back into another system by Friday. That one may start as a touch of freezing rain before going to rain. A second system brings rain and snow in here Saturday into Saturday night, with a much bigger system soon thereafter. This is a setup that can bring all modes of winter weather to Kentucky.
Euro
Canadian
GFS
As we get back to the system out there today, I will have updates coming your way, so check back. I have you set to do some tracking with all kinds of toys…
Lexington
Georgetown
Frankfort
Richmond
Winchester
Florence
Covington area
Louisville
E-town
Bowling Green
Mountain Parkway near Slade
Pine Mountain
Morehead
Maysville
London
Mt. Vernon
Corbin
Make it a good one and take care.
Not even a WWA! ;(
This may be one of the better local forecasts I have ever seen from Jackson NWS, however, as it clearly explains elevation snow accumulation difference expected. I hope it is wrong, but no accumulation for me as Harlan is under 1200ft and I am tired of everyone looking at models, thinking we get so much snow in SE KY. Especially Schroeder, look below!
Here is NWS forecast for my county (hope it is wrong but a good one):
Action Recommended
Avoid the subject event as per the instructions
Issued By
Jackson – KY, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Harlan County
Description
…Slick Roads Possible For Elevations Above 2500 Feet Late This Afternoon and Evening… Cold air will surge into the area today, with rain mixing with and changing to snow. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing much faster at elevations above 2500 feet in southeast Kentucky, allowing for snowfall accumulations up to 2 inches in some areas. The sub-freezing temperatures combined with the minor snow accumulations could lead to some slick spots on roads crossing the higher terrain late this afternoon and evening. Snowfall should exit the area by midnight tonight, but slick spots may continue through the overnight hours. Some of the more traveled roads that could be impacted include US-23 at Pound Gap, US-119 outside of Whitesburg, US 421 outside of Harlan, and KY-160 crossing Black Mountain. While some snowfall may be seen at lower elevations, air temperatures are expected to remain at or above freezing until the precipitation ends, with little or no snow accumulation expected.
I’m sorry Terry. Not feeling good about myself today. On the weather, the NWS is forecasting one to three inches of snow from now through ten o’clock this morning for Taylor county. Right now it’s not coming true. I hope you get your snow. Again, I’m sorry for trying to forecast your weather. Have a great day Terry. I hope we are still weather friends. I know I’m not popular on this weather blog.
You are fine. I am not calling you out on weather forecasting, just about the elevation differences. Nothing personal, just trying to explain how the topography here causes HUGE differences in snow accumulation and makes forecasting even harder!
NWS in not calling for 1-3 inches of snow in Taylor County not sure where you getting that information.
Well next weeks system looks very interesting.
Looks wet for southern KY and interesting closer to the Ohio River next week:( Stinks as too dang warm. I hope for some miracle tonight but it may be a big 0 in Harlan for accumulation on this event except up high!
LOL!
Morristown NWS really thinks most of East TN and SW VA gets accumulation of an inch or so. I about bet us border counties match Chris’s forecast as I usually get accumulation when moisture holds back. I hope Troy gets some too.
Thanks Terry but will will get the infamous warm nose with a few flurries at the tail end as per usual…..however, you have a chance of accumulation
Just in the wrong state I would like 80’s and sunshine in the Winter months which is not going to happen. Snow lovers would like big snows that’s probably not going to happen either.
We are the “southeast” version of the Pacific Northwest. LOL. Anymore, we get a foot of rain per every inch of snow:()
I’m not even close to that # the past couple yrs.
Honest question….deep down, did any of you really buy into the last 5 days of ridiculous (fantasy) model runs? These rarely pan out in Jan-Feb, much less in Dec.
No, but thanks for painting the reality picture! I am still asleep riding along on the RainTrain and can’t wake up. Now I am depressed and can’t wake up out of this nightmare of never ending rain. BLAH. LOL
If one believes the GFS every winter when it comes to snow most would average over 50 inches of snow per year.
Absolutely not common sense would tell you that we was going to get very little.
I think I’m going to window forecasting this winter for any chance of snow. When every model on the planet is showing multiple inches of snowfall less than 24 hours out and the NWS now saying “the cold air has lagged far enough behind the precipitation to limit any snowfall potential”. Something about Kentucky (especially SE part) that makes the models calculate stuff that isn’t going to happen. We have missed out on multiple one day out snows the last few year and more than a few of them have shown some pretty good totals less than a day out. That’s not just missing out on a “big” snow, that’s getting no snow or a dusting at most..
Below was meant for you but having tech issues. LOL
Another factor, and this is not at all my opinion but proven fact, is what we often refer to as the dreaded “warm nose.” This factor is real and a common issue where the models struggle and can’t discern how a low pressure will pull in more warm air on the west flank , often on the west side of the Apps during our typical “Ohio Valley” low pressure tracks. This can be over come by App Runners but we haven’t had hardly any systems take a good track lack that with arctic air already in place for a few years now.
You are certainly right about that warm wedge on the western side of the Appalachian Mountains. That phenomenon seems to be keeping stronger every Winter. When I was much younger, I remember it ruining a few storms each Winter. But now it is the rule rather than the exception.
Due to the jetstream staying west of and on top of us. We need a pattern change dang it!
For one and likely the biggest issue in my opinion, models certainly mess us over due to ELEVATION. We are near 2020, and models always pick up the highest peaks down here and consistently show our region as 10 or more degrees colder than the valleys where most live at, yielding “a blanket forecast for snow.” The temp issue translates all of this rain into what I call false snow accumulation on the models. Yes, top of Pine and Black and highest knobs out your way and scattered throughout SE KY can get some decent snow at times but the majority of the population never sees it as we live down below 1500ft. Hence, most locals trust weather forecasting at about 0%!
The airc overall is too warm for this to ever be more than a coating maker for most. The only snow was if cherry picking models without rationalizing if they make sense.
Anyone should know several days ago that they didn’t make sense based on what temps were leading up to the event but here we are with disappointed people.
The air overall is too warm for this to ever be more than a coating maker for most. The only snow was if cherry picking models without rationalizing if they make sense.
Good thing CB didn’t seem to bite on any one model.
Another false take. Sorry I just had to do it lol
Yep, CB must be model jaded. Rightfully so.
You mean like the Canadian model last time…you remember, every model had to fall in line with the Canadian model? He was inviting all snow lovers to pull for the Canadian. So don’t say “false take” or the usual “you’re wrong” cuz I got witnesses, and I hope you can read
I can read just fine and yes, you are a pathological liar.
No he isn’t. You are an idol worshiper though
I’ve been hearing thunder
Snow and rain in London sleet and rain in Barbourville
In my part of Richmond we are experience phantom radar snow right now. (Snowing on the radar but but not in real life.)
Bardstown is covered in rain @ 30° on radar, but getting nothing here on the ridge just above town….gotta love it!!!
Next week’s predicted ice event doesn’t look good…
I love this quote from the 1983 film, Wargames, “General, you are listening to a machine. Do the world a favor and don’t act like one”.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jWQ1ITS94cA
That’s why we have meteorologists to help explain what the models should be telling us. I say kudos to CB for not biting on the many models spitting out huge snowfall numbers, not buying into the hype from those “machines”, but patiently analyzing what makes the most sense and offer a best call on such a tough forecast.
We have to remember, while Computers produce models, Humans input the data that models use and formulas used to crunch that data and anything Human isn’t going to be perfect. Also take into consideration data from faulty equipment can also produce bad model results.