Merry Christmas Eve, everyone. It’s mild as Santa heads toward the bluegrass state and this mild weather will carry us through the rest of the week. Big time changes continue to show up this weekend and into the closing days of 2019 as Old Man Winter returns.
Outside of the mild temps this week, periods of clouds will return and we have to be on guard for a shower or two as the week wears on.
The big show comes this weekend as a potent plains storm system works toward the upper midwest, dragging a cold front into Kentucky. There appears to be a little better chance for a wave of low pressure to develop along the front, or even along an upper low coming behind it.
This is something the Canadian is seeing…
The Euro is similar, but holds on to too much energy across the plains states and keeps the upper low to our northwest…
The GFS remains fairly consistent in what it has been showing…
The GFS then shows a clipper looking system to start the new year, with another system behind it…
The GFS continues with a very active pattern into week one of the new year…
Make it a very Merry Christmas and take care.
NWS in Louisville had a lengthydiscussion about the next few Heading into 2020…
Moving into midweek and into the new year, the late week one and
into week two teleconnection pattern is likely to feature a
+AO/+EPO/-PNA/+NAO pattern. The combo of the +AO/+EPO is suggestive
that the Pacific will likely be driving the overall pattern with
little if any ridging getting into AK to tap colder air to the
north. The +AO pattern is more indicative of a stronger strat PV
that likely will not get perturbed. With that said, the overall
pattern should yield milder than normal temperatures as we move into
early January. While the overall average may end up milder than
normal, there will likely be a series of weather systems that move
through the region with relative warmth ahead and relative coolness
in their wake. Thus, the overall precipitation pattern will likely
end up being a bit wetter than normal.
The +AO/+EPO/-PNA/+NAO pattern looks to continue into the first full
week of January and there are some models that suggest that it could
continue until Mid-January. Considerable blocking over the Indian
Ocean this fall is starting to break down and that blocking has
really taken the MJO out of driving the overall weather pattern. It
is possible that MJO may start to drive the pattern by mid-month but
the global models suggest that an emergence out into phase 5/6 is
possible which is still a mild pattern for January.
In other words: 95% rain, ending with 5% frozen stuff 😉
Merry Christmas everyone!
well Prelude that being said. We shall how it plays out and Merry CHRISTMAS TO ALL!!
Sounds like a repeat of the last 3 Winters. Sunny, warm, rain, wind then maybe a couple backside flurries.
Let’s discard all the models except the outliers that show a 5% chance of a flurry a week away and run with those. As always.