Good Saturday, everyone. It’s full steam ahead toward a heavy rain event rolling in here Sunday and Sunday night. This heavy rain is likely to lead to some flooding issues across parts of the bluegrass state. All of this is ahead of a colder setup to end the year.
My thoughts on the corridor of heaviest rains have not changed. This looks like a general 1″-3″ rainfall with locally higher amounts…
Much of that rain falls in a 12-18 hour window Sunday into Sunday evening. This would cause general flooding with localized flash flooding.
I would expect Flood Watches to be issued at some point today…
The first wave of showers and a few thunderstorms will move across western Kentucky this afternoon and evening. The SPC has far western Kentucky in the low-end risk for a few severe storms…
The rain will quickly taper off by Monday morning as a dry slot sweeps in under our low to the north. That’s a colder wind blowing and we could see some backlash snow showers and flurries coming in for New Year’s Eve. This is something the models have been showing for a while, especially the GFS Ensembles and the Canadian…
I will have updates later today. Until then, here are your early Saturday tracking tools…
Make it a good one and take care.
Why is 2020 already starting to look 2018 & 2019?
forgot my like.
It is like I do that all the time. lol
Gee Chris what happened to your two week everyday post of old man winter returning by the beginning of January looks like the models fooled again no mention now about it just good ole rain everyday wash rinse repeat I’m sure we won’t see no backlash snow either it’s not even worth mentioning but that just tells you how lame winters been
Snow lovers close your eyes you do not want to see the latest temperature outlook for January from the CPC.
Yep:(
I love this blog but at times I feel like winter is trying to be forced into the forecast. It just ain’t happening right now. It can turn around later on but then were running out of time for much winter. It is what it is. We will just have to track rain and mild conditions.
That is the truest thing I’ve ever read on this blog. I too feel like he’s forcing winter into the forecast in the order to get page views. I certainly hope that isn’t true but it surely seems that way at times. Just setting snow lovers up to be let down…
This time last week, New Year Eve was going to be 33, then it went to 37, and now it’s 42 for a high. See a trend here? There is not a day below 40 in the next two weeks. Seasons no longer exist. Enjoy Mud Season.
I saw a tweet a few days back showing a model run of the GFS on December 9th with Kentucky getting a all out snowstorm on Christmas Eve. As we all know the complete opposite occurred.
If I remember correctly we were two weeks from winter all last year. Eventually we ran out of winter and spring was here. I have a feeling it’s going to be the same way again. Even the “great polar vortex” last year showed up a couple of weeks later than what was thought. It’s odd that the models can’t even get temperatures right in the winter but do a pretty good job in the summer. Winter for the most part has shifted hundreds of miles north.
What sucks is we are getting used to the warmer weather, so when it does get cold, it will suck even more.
Seems this year we need to be even more in “believe it when it falls” as far as snow. Models bad.
We may beat out last year for both December and January average temps if you can believe that. The precip total may fall below last year during these two months but there is still time left to be determined.
For some, it’s possible that December 2019 average temperature for the month will finish higher than November’s. It’s only happened in Louisville a few times, last time in 1984…
November 1984….44.0
December 1984….45.9
Mr. Bailey might want to consider going back to his once a day updates, like he usually does from late Spring until late Fall. Not much point telling us 3 times a day it is gonna be warm with rain.
🙁
True but any flood or severe weather threat will be update worthy. Unfortunately, we may find that January brings both here and there. Hopefully, a real snow chance by months end, certainly not in the near future.
Folks, we are acting surprised, the models are pretty much useless, unless within 24 to 36 hrs of a potential winter event…. they do provide entertainment though…. just pay attention to the overall trends the past few years, and you have a decent shot at predicting winter in ky. The climate has shifted, the cause is anybody’s guess, but it is fact. We will no longer get sustained cold, or at least the kind that will produce the kind of snow the snowlovers want, maybe a quick inch or two here and there, followed by quick warm up, that is our winter from here on out in Ky
RIP winter. Its going just as it did this past one.
Sorry Jeff 😉
Seriously, why is everyone complaining about having no snow when we are only 1 week into winter? Wouldn’t it be nicer to be talking about the beautiful weather we have had this week
Well, my palms are growing a little, that is positive and exciting to me:)
Third year for some and second year in the ground for others. They pretty well stop growing in late October and start again in April, but it so warm, they have started growing a little in late December!
That’s awesome. I have a friend in Athers, TN who grows numerous palms in his yard. He doesn;t bring them inside anymore…in case of a deep freeze, he just throws plastic over them.
That is what I do. In Harlan, KY, lol, I am growing palms, but these are Needle and Trachycarpus Fortunei (Windmill) and are the hardiest, common in the Deep South.
I feel sorry for Chris. Models are junk and we’re at a point we can’t rely on trends from years past. Much respect to him.
These refs are taking the game out of the hands for both teams… pathetic
Of both