Good Sunday everyone. We have a good old fashioned fall rain storm set to slam the bluegrass state over the next few days. This system is likely to put down a lot of water before it brings a big time blast of chilly temps to the state. The setup with this looks like something out of late fall or winter instead of the middle of September. It’s all part of a colder than normal pattern across much of the country for the rest of the month.
Today’s weather will feature a mix of sun and clouds and the chance for a shower or two. Southern and western Kentucky will have the highest chances of seeing the drops. Highs will generally run in the 70s.
Showers will begin to increase on Monday as moisture streams in ahead of low pressure developing across the deep south. This low will slowly lift northeastward toward the southern Appalachian Mountains as a strong cold front sweeps in from the west on Tuesday. Rain and thunderstorms will become widespread late Monday into Tuesday with the potential for high water producing rains for some.
Here’s a first call on RAINfall…
If anything, I may be too far east with the core of heaviest rains. The GFS certainly says I am…
That run actually shows a spot of 5″+ across south central Kentucky. One thing is for sure… this system looks wetter and wetter as we get closer to it moving through here. We will keep a close eye on the potential for high water.
Once the front passes late Tuesday, temps will become the main story. Readings Tuesday will drop from the 60s into the 50s by late afternoon and early evening. Skies will slowly clear out Tuesday night allowing for readings to tank. It’s as simple as this: If your skies clear out early Tuesday night, your temps will likely hit the upper 30s. If clouds hold tough, low 40s will be the rule. Record lows may be challenged in some cities.
Another strong system may approach the region by Friday and Saturday with another good shot of rain to be followed by a similar cold blast.
This is also the time of year when people start asking ” why are you the only one talking about (fill in the blank)?” . My reply: “Ask everyone else why they aren’t talking about it” . That’s how we roll! 😉
Have a great Sunday and take care.
After last years busted “_______” forecast/predictions I wouldn’t start talking about this years “______” either.
You mad?
😀
answer is, Chris THE LEGEND Bailey is the best there is, the best there was and the best they ever will be!!! thaT right that BRET THE HITMAN HART saying and BAILEY is thew man.
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!! DIAMONDS ARE FOREVER and so is CHRIS BAILEY!!! that from the NATURE BOY RIC FLAIR!!WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Ran across this today and thought I’d share.
WxChallenge is a national forecasting competition for current meteorology students and alumni.
http://wxchallenge.com/info/about.php
http://wxchallenge.com/info/signup.php
Ahh the first call for accumulation maps!!! Its just the wrong type of precipitation. I gotta feeling that those famous “———–” maps will be showing up sooner than later this year!
It’s about time for my to find my pinch of salt to take with the forecasts. I trust everyone’s efforts, but winter forecasts must be so much more difficult than any other season as they seem to bust more often than not. Or at least they always veer toward the dry side. It could be southern lows, dry air, cold outracing the moisture, moisture outracing the cold or an issue with weather balloons in Mexico but winter forecasts seem notoriously unreliable. (Once again – I do believe everyone is doing their best…) I am hoping not to expect anything until it falls from the sky and lies on the ground for a while.
I am hoping to break out of my backyard’s snow drought – 8 years in Richmond and never more than 6 inches of snow at any one time and probably less than 20 inches total, not per year – but in all 8 years. Quite a change from the first time I lived in KY in the late 70s.
We’ll see… Now, where is that salt?
I think the snowfall forecast for last year was 20-25 inches for the year, Frankfort got about 7in. For the year and that was thanks to 5 inches In March. The last 10 plus in. Snow here was 1998, I hope the snow gods realize how snow starved and snow storm due we are in Central KY?
Here in Nashville, we got a whopping four tenths of an inch all of last winter.
Even the 2010-11 winter only gave a few minor snows to Nashville, despite Nashville getting an unusual white Christmas. Despite a single storm in early Jan 2011 dumping about 16 inches along the Tennessee/Alabama line.
But I have a hunch Nashville will get buried this winter.
Ahhhhh…. I see all the winter & snow lover peeps have had their first sniff of cooler temps and are all rolling into CB’s site now. 🙂
Hello all my winter buddies… nice summer hibernation, eh? 😉
Ha, I was just thinking that very same thing! If I had a penny for every post I’ve read on this site about the lack of snow, when are we gonna get “the big one”, the snow dome, and other variations of sadness over how little snow we get, well, I’d be richer. 🙂
Since I grew up in a snowless wasteland of heat and humidity, just having cooler temps is plenty good enough for me.
Yea – really Jeanette
Even Bubba posted earlier than usual, and that’s pretty rare!
I’m BACK!! 😉 Loving the first “first call” accumulation map!! Looking forward to many more to come in the next few months! (with a different type of precip of course 🙂 )