Good Saturday to one and all. We have a serious shot of cold air invading the region and this will lay the groundwork for the possibility of some wild weather for a lot of people. We have never witnessed an event like the one about to take place… A hurricane coming ashore and turning into a major nor’easter and snow producer. Think about that one for a second and let it sink in.
I will have many updates for you this weekend, so I don’t want to go crazy with this post. Let me break it all down with the headlines and maps…
– Showers today will be more prominent across the east with some sun in the west. Temps will range from the mid 40s east to low 50s west.
– Additional rain will develop Sunday across the eastern half of the state. This takes place as colder air starts to work in from the northwest and I expect to see some wet snow mixing in with the rain in the high mountains of eastern Kentucky Sunday night. The NAM is picking up on this…
– Hurricane Sandy will pick up steam and intensity Monday as it slows down off the Mid Atlantic states. This storm is likely really crank up as the trough pulls it due westward with a landfall likely Monday Night between New York City and northern Virginia. Words can’t describe the potential destruction Sandy may cause.
– The models are all converging on taking this mega storm westward into the eastern Ohio Valley or Appalachian Mountains by Tuesday and Wednesday. The farther west and south this thing gets, the better our chances of seeing rain and snow from this monster.The overnight model runs suggest central and eastern Kentucky would be in line of fire. The NAM and GFS are very similar to one another…
NAM
GFS
The GFS Ensembles Mean is farther southward and gives more of Kentucky the chance of wintry weather…
I’m looking at the new European Model rolling in and it’s back to taking the low as far south and west as Virginia by Tuesday night. I’m not going to post it because I have to sleep sometime. 🙂
The NAM Snowfall map only goes through Tuesday morning and looks like this…
The GFS Snowfall map…
As always… take those with a grain of salt as they will change as new model runs come in and the path of Sandy clears up. Still… that’s pretty wild to see.
It is still possible for this storm to change enough to take away our chance for snow. It’s also possible for this storm to go the other direction and increase our chances. Don’t get too worked up right now as we have a few days to play with and a lot can change.
Two things I am very confident of… the cold and the wind. Gusts Tuesday and Wednesday could approach 40mph in some places. If we have precipitation to go with those winds… it could get nasty.
I will have updates later today. Have a wonderful Saturday and take care.
Winter storm watch already out for mountains of WV.
Yep, seems regardless of the track, WV higher levels seem a prime target for chances.
It is nasty out there this morning. What a wake up call from 2 days ago. Hello winter!
Seems the track will favor a more north east flow, so not as due east over Virginia. Perhaps the current map results will be more north east of the current maps here.
Several tracks appear to have the heaviest weight and the average of those are more northeast than the maps here. Still, you never know until the system starts to turn.
Referring to the relative map placement of the overall event and not the actual system direction.
COULD SOMEONE BE EVER SO KIND AND GIVE ME THE WEBSITE TO ANY OF THE KENTUCKY WEATHER CHAT ROOMS? PLEASE!!!!
4 to 5 FEET of snow possible in West Virginia high elevations, ROAD TRIP 🙂
Heading to it while residents are wanting to run away from it 😉
If this pans out, it will be more of a pain maker than a fun maker. The dome sometimes is a good thing.
Hopefully we get some snow from this. I’ve been watching The Weather Channel, and they aren’t predictng any snow for Kentucky. However, yesterday Al Roker said that the Ohio River Valley, which includes us, could see a foot of snow. And I looked at both of the snowfall forecasts, and they both are saying that Kentucky will at least get some form of snow. I have this app called Fahrenheit, and it predicts an inch of snow for the Ashland area, so who knows.
COME ON, SNOW!!!!!! WOHOOOO!!!
Gfs a little more south..Could get real interesting for Eastern Ky the way the models are shaping up..
As of 11am the NHC has there projected path further south also..
http://www.registercitizen.com/articles/2012/10/27/news/doc508ab54024d4b708171484.txt
Glad I am not a met, since not seeing how the waffle effect of the models result in a solution ATM. CB is correct more than not, so if he bites, must be something to it.
Based on CB’s tweets, he might be. That said, IF the system starts drawing more south and east, since more energy to feed upon. In that case, my main words for a word cloud for people to the east is “power outage”.
The path that link shows is what I was expecting and does not seem to favor a more southeast trend.
Still, CB seems to be more interested.
12z GFS slams East KY with a hefty wet snow!!!
How much Derek?
I’m not Dereck but this is what its showing
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=MRX
from say MORHEAD suth and east. so line straight south look like the FENCE, east of that line better start making PLANS folks. u are looking at a POWEREOUTAGE nightmare for far EASTERN KY if things would syay the way they aare. if we are seeing this tomm morning on models its a GO.
WINTER STORM THREAT right now for far eastern ky by Chris Bailey.
better make plans a if models hold ur in line for WET HEEEAVTY SNOW with alot wind as BAILEY just posted.
hopefully it go futher east and north, but as many know trends to west are common as we get closer.
True.
Anyone that gets the main brunt of this might be getting something they do not want. No power and a slushy snow that will melt quickly. Mainly pain and little to no snow fun.
I’m not buying this one just yet….to many variables and the timeframe is too far out…..also Sandy is a lady so no tellin’ what’s going to change. 😉
The path of the Sandy still appears on average to show a more northerly flow, rather than due west. be nice to see CB’s thoughts for a more easterly flow over Virginia.
Yep, thats my thinking.
Come on folks…..even if it does snow, the ground is to warm, and even if it managed to stick, temps are forcasted about freezing in the pm………do the math 😛
ABOVE freezing…sorry for the typo… 😀
Wonder when we will get some kind of update for Ky.
Chris, I have followed your weather site for the past several years, and I must say that your forecasts have been more consistently correct for my area (near Hazard) than any other forecasts available to me. You have been especially good at predicting total snow accumulations. For that reason I’m taking you seriously when you start talking about the possibility of snow, even if it IS only late October. I’ll be checking in frequently over the next several days for updates. Keep up the good work. You are providing a very valuable service.